This is the current count from the Minor B wave high. It is a pretty clean diagonal downward and subsequent complex upward wave.
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| ES Futures - 30 Minutes - Diagonal and Flat |
The diagonal shown down to (i) is a 3-3-3-3-3 diagonal, and as with all diagonals of this type, it can be 'leading or ending'. If it is leading, it would be minuet wave (i) of a larger minute wave ((i)), downward of the Minor C wave.
The diagonal must be respected. What might tilt the odds a bit (55:45?) in favor of the leading diagonal is the fact that there is a clear FLAT wave = 100% following it. Flats are corrections, so why would a corrective wave be following a diagonal, unless the upward wave is to correct downward one? The clear purpose of a complex flat wave is to give the correction more time, and a bit more price.
Still, there is a clear invalidation point, and we often hear of the supposed "deep retrace" following a diagonal wave, particularly if it is the first wave in a sequence.
What should be starting to be apparent is that if the Minor C wave downward is starting out this slowly, then the angle of the trajectory of the C wave will like be more shallow than the downward A wave, assuming the B wave holds its own.
In any case, today is yet another relatively clear of how we are not crashing yet - with as many people on their internet blogs and videos trying to tell you we are crashing. Not yet, but maybe soon. Let's see what direction the overnight gap is, and if there is any downside after the cash market open.
As an alternate, if the downward wave invalidates, then the presence of a diagonal would tend to indicate that it would be the (c) wave of wave ((iv)) of Minor B wave still in progress upward. But again, the presence of the flat tends to argue against that.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
I think you keep trying to do something that is not.
ReplyDeleteATH coming soon.
I provided the following:
Delete1. A detailed count using Elliott Wave logic.
2. A clear alternate using Elliott Wave logic.
3. A count on a larger time scale, and a count on a smaller time scale.
What did you provide? An opinion? I am actually one of the people that think new all-time-highs are possible for the ES and SPX. EW logic would suggest there should be one more downward corrective wave first.
TJ
TJ, Unless I am mistaken you have changed your count from expecting a downward "X" of WXY on the 1st July "because Minor B did not reach 90% of Minor A", to now implying it may have completed in this post? Would you consider placing your weekly and daily counts as a featured post for easy access for your followers? Doing so may add transparency of your current view and reduce the uncertainty.
ReplyDeleteJust re read your post from the 1st of July and you did say " If the red Minor B wave is at the prior high, that is still fine". So I am mistaken.
Delete..serious thx for using 'reply'..
DeleteAnd one recount.
ReplyDelete28 june - today, waves 1 and 2.
I say this days.
..that would be such a small second wave it defies EW logic; it's not 38%, it's not 50%, it's not 62%. I really don't know what you are thinking of. Whatever it is, it is not typical EW logic.
DeleteWave 1 24870-26200, and retrace 50% +-in 25560 a wave, next strong b wave, and c wave today to complete wave 2.
ReplyDeleteOn DJ, CFDS.
But on S&P, ok, not tipycal, no logic retrace.
On Dax (Alemania), retrace 50% today, too.
If we are potentially about to start (iii) of minor C (red) down.
ReplyDelete1. Do you see any reason why minor c (red) would not exceed start of minor B (red) for an expanding flat?
2. On your post 13th and 20th June, you referred to this pending move lower as "Minor B" as well. Little confused from a labeling point of view. Red minor B = 8th June, Red minor C will complete = minor B as per your post on the 20th June.
See this post of June 22 for the approximate daily count. Move the red B to the right to agree with where it is currently, as per the hourly chart shown in previous days.
Deletehttp://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2020/06/degree-labeling-might-again-help-2.html
Thanks
DeleteAny problem with a triangle in the works from the June high on ES?
ReplyDeleteOn ES 3,170 appears to be the new resistance level.
ReplyDeleteTJ
..temporary support on ES 3,152; if it breaks lower look for signs of a third wave, lower.
DeleteET in addition, the time for the diagonal to be taken out in less time than it took to form has expired so we "should" see lower. Also noted that the CPCP chart is at .40
DeleteI meant to say the CPCE chart
Deleteexcellent inputs Tjchuck .. that's what this site is all about; not necessarily agreeing with me or a wave count but - metrics that support reasonable views.
DeleteHere is what the current intraday wave-counting screen looks like:
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/re52z
A wave counting stop is suggested above resistance.
TJ
Info only ..ES now down to S1 ..
DeleteInfo only .. S2 down at 3,111.
DeleteExcellent! This would be micro 1 of minor 1 of C right?
DeleteThanks
@fp .. no; you have each degree label incorrect. C is Minor C.
DeleteNice call TJ
ReplyDeletethx .. jack
DeleteInfo only .. price is now down to S2, and has broken the low proving that the diagonal was leading.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/re5tc
TJ
Info only .. cash SPX just closed the close-to-open up gap from July 2 at 3,115.86
DeleteInfo only .. ES 30-min has three closes below the intraday Bollinger Band; odds of a further close below the band reduced to 2 - 3%. Definitely not impossible, so don't hear that ... 'only' getting less likely.
DeleteInfo only .. here is the cash gap that closed (red line), and another below it (red circle).
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/k6yF2oZD/
TJ
Info only .. Daily Pivot Point S3 (Support 3) is at 3,098 as in the updated chart below.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/re6kw
TJ
Marvelous work TJ! I agree with your post of 10:32 this morning. The market took a bit longer and you kept counting the waves throughout: your patience is rewarded! So many thanks for the learning along the way.
ReplyDeletethx & welcome!
DeleteIndeed it was a great call- Moreover I love your discipline of counting. Unmatched!!
ReplyDelete..nice to hear!
DeleteInfo only - ES 30-min first close inside the band resets the number of consecutive closes allowed outside of the lower band again.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/re76z
TJ
Can you Please elaborate on this a little when you have a second? Thanks
DeleteSimple. More consecutive closes BELOW lower band now permitted...
DeleteAdditionally, Retrace for ES 500 is more than .382 (So next down wave has a potential for 1.618 or more) At about 1355 the upward wave will be longer in time than today's downward wave. Also the daily chart slow stochastic spiked slightly above the 80 line and now below it which tends to have a high probability (According to Ira) of a target to the bottom of the Bollinger Band on the daily chart.
DeleteThanks- Both. Learn something new everyday even after 20+ years trading.
DeleteEverything I have learned is from ET at this site so all kudos go to him.
DeleteThats what I told Joe the other day. I have been here only about two weeks and already have learned a ton.Also, I have followed or gotten educated over the years by a lot of ellioticians. But Love Joe's understanding of Crux of the theory.
DeleteGetting a call right or wrong doesn't matter as all of us are either right or wrong.
TJ, shouldn't the subwaves of (ii) (minuette) be labeled simply as w, x, y (no circles) (subminuette)? Thus, the order from top down is: circle, (), nothing.
DeleteHasnt the structure been invalidated already? Maroon iii is inside maroon i.
Deleteunless 1-2,i-ii off course
Interesting to see if the slow. stoch. on daily E - mini 500 futures will embed today.
ReplyDeleteOn the 1 minute looks like another diagonal for the C wave up of the correction. Waiting to confirm with retrace or time on taking it out.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/a/0MBNUTK
DeleteHere is the possible diagonal that is in No-mans land at the moment. If I have where 1 started on the diagonal correct.