Friday, July 24, 2020

Gap and Grind

Here is the primary count on the ES daily chart. Cash gapped lower and then spent most of the day grinding around and not filling the opening gap. The advance-decline statistics were a little stronger to the downside today: 1-to-2 on the NYSE and about 1-to-3 on the NDX.

ES Futures - Daily - Overlap of ((y)) of B

Drawing in a secondary trend line from the low (light blue) shows that price action has broken that line.

Here is the short-term ES 30-minute chart including the overnight fourth wave triangle which was called in near-real-time.

ES Futures - 30 Minute - Five Down

With the lower low after v it could be that we are making a flat wave. There is definitely a 3-3-5 structure off of the low. The question is whether it will be an expanded flat, or a failed flat. The expanded flat is the more frequent structure. 

Have a  good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
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16 comments:

  1. jacksparrowJuly 24, 2020 at 7:08 PM

    I was reaading it as ed.although last leg of ed is not clean but it is at the low of the day

    ReplyDelete
  2. fibonacci.July 24, 2020 at 8:53 PM

    Excellent post yet again!!- Have a great weekend Joe.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Kevin KJuly 25, 2020 at 3:56 PM

    Trader Joe,

    Looks like price is currently sitting on mid-channel support.
    We also have the 18 period daily moving average in play here.

    Thanks for the update

    ReplyDelete
  4. AnonymousJuly 26, 2020 at 9:43 AM

    Could this be an alternate count for the 30min ES chart?

    https://imgur.com/hOoySOE

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderJuly 26, 2020 at 1:35 PM

      This pretty clearly creates the degree violation that smaller degree ((1)) is larger in price than larger degree i.

      Delete
    2. AnonymousJuly 26, 2020 at 3:37 PM

      So you're saying that in a 5 wave structure, the 1st sub wave of wave 5 should never be greater than the 1st wave of the entire structure?
      Thanks

      Delete
  5. AnonymousJuly 26, 2020 at 12:35 PM

    Heres a second alternative for consideration. Not sure if this is workable.

    https://imgur.com/4AKK2t0

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderJuly 26, 2020 at 1:38 PM

      This creates the problem of 'mixing fives-and-threes within a diagonal' which is not allowed. Clearly i is five-waves down as labeled. But wave ii -> iii is a clear three-wave sequence. Hard to count it any other way. Also, perform the exercise for yourself, and see if you can get a diagonal out of cash. I can't so I'm content with 'five-down' and a flat following though the c wave of the flat may or may not be incomplete as of yet.

      Delete
  6. TjchuckJuly 27, 2020 at 1:06 AM

    TJ ,

    As per your chart on July 16th on Gold it seems that we have a major thrust to the upside most likely the result of an ending diagonal. However I am still trying to figure out that fifth wave.
    The biggest indication for downside or that wave 5 of (c) of [B] is over is that the daily bolinger band has now closed 4 times outside and seems to be working on a fifth which is statistically less probable. I guess we will see if this [C] wave down starts tomorrow for gold.

    ReplyDelete
  7. TjchuckJuly 27, 2020 at 1:28 AM

    Or we are at the end of wave iii of 5 with wave iv to follow and wave iv might overlap the three wave i up which is longer in price than the iii wave currently is....giving a start to an ending diagonal of 5 for gold. Just some thoughts. I guess we will see.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Elliott_TraderJuly 27, 2020 at 9:35 AM

    Daily pivot points for intraday wave-counting screen: PP - 3211.50; R1 - 3231.25; S1 - 3184.00.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Elliott_TraderJuly 27, 2020 at 9:50 AM

    SP500 cash index - 'minimum' Flat objective has been obtained.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/RNIwODG5/

    Can go much further if it wants.
    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousJuly 27, 2020 at 9:58 AM

      Thanks. How's that look on futures?

      Delete
    2. Elliott_TraderJuly 27, 2020 at 10:21 AM

      S&P500 cash gap is closed .. can still go higher.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/T0kP9ly7/

      TJ

      Delete
  10. Elliott_TraderJuly 27, 2020 at 3:24 PM

    ES 30-min .. just hit the R1 daily pivot. 'Might' be a diagonal of some type. Needs more waves though.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Elliott_TraderJuly 27, 2020 at 4:25 PM

    There is a new post started for the next day.

    ReplyDelete

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