Friday, July 10, 2020

Because Waves Tend to Travel in Channels

This chart is because waves tend to travel in channels. The overall count has not changed. The (X) wave can be almost any corrective structure, including a zigzag, a multiple zigzag, a flat or expanded flat or a triangle.

S&P 500 Cash Index - Daily - Still on Track

In this count I do not see any degree violations because Minute c of Minor B is still smaller than all of Minor C of Intermediate (W), both in time and in price. This count could have as it's intention to fill some gaps at C of (W).

Notice the MACD has a peak at A, and a peak at C, but not a typical 'third-of-a-third' with a divergence.

Have a good start to the weekend,
TraderJoe

36 comments:

  1. Joe, I think people treat you as an expert and someone of an authority with your rules and degrees etc. However there is a good reason you mention that your blog is only for counting and not to be used for any trading purpose. You need to make that front and center in your blog.

    You are and have been costing money to a lot of people. Your attitude to screening posts need to change as well. Your ego only permits some utterly frivolous and rubbish posts and any post with chart is immediately screened out. Speaks volumes about your insecurity and your overinflated ego.

    es chart

    Here is a chart where I think it is making one more z wave up for B. I maybe wrong and it could go higher taking out the original C of previous wave.

    But thats not the point. Point is there are so many triangles in this chart it is amazing you have not picked up on any. You need to start being more humble and not act holier than thou. You have been horribly wrong ever since end of 2018.

    Pity cause you have talent but your abrasiveness is aborrhent. I will stop visiting your blog from now on and please consider this as my last post. You will not hear from me again. I sincerely believe that neither elliott wave nor fibonacci are useful in trading as there are fractals within fractals. If I indulge in either that would be solely as a hobby. Not as a trade trigger.

    But you need to start being a better human being. Your attitude is terrible. No wonder people call you as AA. Please stop with the revisionist BS. Put up a disclaimer that your charts can be cartoons and please don’t mislead people.

    Relabeling does not absolve you. Anymore than those you deride. And remember you are in public domain and hence you cannot simply screen out a post that might help prevent an innocent reader from taking up your analysis as gospel.

    You dont need to start taking ownership of your mistakes but atleast allow any constructive criticism through so people in public domain can make up their own mind. They will still prefer some blogs over not having any blogs. But they like you are not investing/trading leveraged or non leveraged instruments.

    Its the silent ones who suffer losses and dont report back. Ignore the idiots who are always calling for aths. I appreciate the overall view of being in a super cycle 4 since august of 2018. That doesn’t take a genius to figure out btw. But these B waves or corrective waves making aths and running hundreds if not thousands of points are bewildering. Corrective waves in wrong direction and going far longer than they should.

    I do hope you have read this post and warn people not to take your posts seriously. Also acknowledge the fact that you are a jerk.

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    Replies
    1. PP1 - There is a disclaimer at the bottom of the blog page Scroll all the way down. I have written repeatedly that trading or investment advice is not offered. I am repeating that here.

      PP2 - I haven't cost anyone a red cent. They make up their minds, they do as they chose. I have posted and repeatedly posted links to my paraphrase of Ira Epstein's Trading Guidelines at this link:

      Paraphrase of Ira Epstein's Guideline for Trading


      The most basic point in those guidelines is that one does not short when over the 18-day SMA. And one does not go long when price is under the 18-day SMA. If you or anyone went short yesterday - well, you can fight the guidelines.

      PP3 - If my short term charts are incorrect, and sometimes they are, yours are difficult to read, don't follow any standard Elliott wave symbols, and have never made a prediction. Let's say a second wave comes down to the 50% level, and is tentatively labeled as wave "2". But, then it need more time and price, and goes down further to 70%. What do you want me to do? NOT revise the chart? That would be insane.

      PP4 - People 'complain' I see 'too many' diagonals and triangles. So, you are way off base, here. I clearly showed the downward diagonal on the July 8th post. I said it could be 'leading' or 'ending'. It was leading. But, only a 'c' wave followed it. I have previously set a wave counting stop at 3,170. I lowered it in writing to 3,155. What did a person do when the stop was hit? Hopefully, they changed their count to upward as I wrote later there was "only (a)-(b)-(c) down". And price is over the 18-day SMA.

      PP5 - I try to be kind to those that are kind. But I follow the advice to "lose the people that are not supportive of your journey through life". I will be kind and only say that you seem to be in the second group. If you are not seen again, it will save me a lot of writing. Lol.

      PP6 - The crux of the matter:, "I sincerely believe that neither elliott wave nor fibonacci are useful in trading." Then, why even bother reading Elliott wave blogs and causing their writer's grief? By your view, "it can't work!". So, your action of posting an EW chart and wasting time reading such a blog is the very definition of insanity.

      PP7 - Every EW chart is subject to revision and to alternates. There is 'no' EW professional who has not published an incorrect chart - not Prechter, not Neely, no one. See reply in last paragraph if you don't like that.

      PP8 - You said it! The key word is 'constructive'. Yours isn't. So they generally don't get through.

      PP9 - Well, if you recognize it, you must be correct that it doesn't take a genius. And, I never said I was a genius. I've had an IQ test. But, I do try to use metrics and measurements as best as I understand them.

      PP10 - This reply 'certifies' that I have read your post. And it also certifies that I am a 'jerk'. Huh? Did he just say that? Yes, all people are jerks 'at times'. Some more often than others. And some with longer emails than others. If you don't like taking risk in financial markets, then you shouldn't be in them. Anyone doing what they don't like to do may also be considered a 'jerk', or worse.

      I'm sure there are others out there who feel the way you do. So, I'm just trying to save them the bother of writing. They can spend their energy being selfish or egotistical or whatever they like. I am just commenting on the behavior, lack of confidence, and rudeness you have shown me. A wise man once said, "be careful what you ask for, because you just might get it".

      TJ

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    2. Nothing bewildering, imho, about these protracted corrective waves.
      The move down from the Feb highs was unprecedented in its ferocity and it seems reasonable to conclude a significant trend change is underway. If anything, liquidity injections in a feverish attempt to resist the developing trend is on par with what we have been seeing for years now, and will of course issue in these violent and sometimes protracted counter-trend moves. The current move higher has all the classic characteristics of a C wave, at least to my eyes...

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  2. Thanks Joe!
    The middle channel seems to be acting like support/guide for the market moving higher? We have one more month to match the 55% stock market rally from the 1929-1930 (five months). The bifurcation in the markets is definitely a warning sign—tech stocks and penny stocks rallying, while the Dow, S&P, bank stocks can’t keep up. Everyone in 1930 believed the bull market was back. Newspaper headlines even mentioned that the Fed’s easy money policies would sustain the new bull market...two years later the markets crashed 85%. There’s nothing unusual about our current rally right now if you look at history...investors are in a dangerous situation if this continues to play out like the depression.

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  3. Tj, The two As in your chart have avoided an overlap so far I wonder there is something more to it.

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  4. A wave on your blue iii.

    a of B on your black B.
    b of B on your C(W).
    c of B on your b blue.

    Next to b blue, 1 and 2 waves of C.
    3, 4 and 5 waves of C go up to ATH... To complete all alcist wave.

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    1. I've thought of something like that; it places (X) on the blue b. But, then the wave is still not in a channel. And everyone seems to want all down movement to end with the $CPCE (put-call-ratio) in record low territory - so I am not getting uber bullish at this time.

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    2. The c of B then does not come back into the wave it is correcting.

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  5. Dax (Alemany).
    http://prntscr.com/tg2ybi

    For USA (SP, DJ, RUSSEL) similar recount.

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    Replies
    1. If b was a running correction, would you not expect its c wave to at least overlap the a wave? I personally find counts where the “corrective” wave goes further in the primary direction than the other waves to be highly unlikely.

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    2. Sergio. Further counts that do not follow Elliott wave rules and guidelines will be deleted. There is no structure which is a-b-c-A that does not subsequently make a 90% retracement for B. There just 'isn't one'.

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  6. You might find it interesting to look at the NDX stocks above their daily 50ma vs the continuing new highs in the index. Say no more, nudge, nudge.

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  7. Here is the overnight open, and the Intraday ES 30-min chart with the closest daily pivots. There was a clear ES gap up. Those gaps tend to fill a little quicker than the ones in cash. Also note, a 1.618 wave up has been made, and the intraday slow stochastic went embedded. So far, there was only one new close over the band before the pull-back to inside of the upper band began.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/86gU5H44/

    A fourth and fifth wave up are good possibilities. The fourth wave 'might' go over the top or triangle.

    TJ

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  8. fyi only = With the ES now at 3,202 it has met the 90% level of the prior C and or (W) wave high. The 90% level is at 3200.25. So, the up wave 'can' qualify as the B wave of a flat. It also 'can' go on to impulse further. Price is currently up over the 18-day SMA, having positive daily bias, and is currently up over the 18-period on the intraday. It has tagged the R1 level once already. The upper daily Bollinger Band is at 3,210. Also, there has not - as of this time - been a 38% retracement yet.

    TJ

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  9. Thanks again Joe.

    The leading indicator of exasperated comments in the blog alerts us that a turning point is near. Maybe we can get a cycle of this phenomenon.

    Take it easy.

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  10. About 20 stocks within the SPX have around 36% of the weighting. If time permits, how would you see the NYA from say Jan on to compare to the SPX?
    Thanks!

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    1. This is all I see in the NYA. It's not able to be traded, so I only glance at it once and a while. But it resembles the Dow in some ways.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/X1rua2R5/

      TJ

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    2. Thanks! Could you see just the abc up to June peak, then w1 down, now in w2 assuming June peak not breached?
      Thanks again.

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    3. @GW .. maybe you missed it but I have explained my rationale for a slightly longer up market in time: 1) the FED is in 2) a Primary degree wave 'should be' larger than an Intermediate degree wave. So, while I favor a correction, I'm looking for it to turn too many people too bearish too quickly.

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  11. fyi only - ES 30-min with now three-closes over the intraday Bollinger Band, drops the odds to ~approx 3% of staying outside of the upper band. Can continue, just odds get lower. Also, now outside of upper daily Bollinger Band. Further, about 1 point away from closing the last S&P gap to the upside.

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    1. ES 30-min, first close inside the intraday bands. This resets the number of 'consecutive closes'. The intraday slow stochastic is currently embedded. If it loses the embedded character, then there a greater likelihood (not a certainty) of going back to the intraday 18-period SMA.

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  12. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    1. ..is it necessary to try to put words in my mouth? when someone does that it tends to make me care much less about any chart they post.

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  13. Did I miss an updated count from the 7/9 low?
    Thanks

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    1. @GW .. please see this post. And remember to 'reply' to keep msg threads together.

      http://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2020/06/trillions.html

      TJ

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  14. Perhaps a larger 5,3,5 structure underway....?

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  15. Replies
    1. O.K. if an expanded flat underway. Of course that means on to new highs after a corrective C down...

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  16. Notice the subtle 'sign of weakness' when price could not regain the upper bands, and is now below the middle band.

    https://invst.ly/rfjsh

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. ..also good to note that the SP500 cash did fill it's prior down gap at 3,233.

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    2. NDX appears to be in the process of printing and outside reversal day candle as well.

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    3. Is there a labeled post of c of B of (X) that I missed?
      Thanks.

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  17. All, there is a new Interim Report started for the next day.

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