The NASDAQ 100 futures (NQ) made a subsequent higher high today, providing five waves up in one segment, or nearly so. Meanwhile, the ES futures made marginal lower lows and a lower high. Here is the current count on the NQ 100.
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| NQ Futures - Daily - Still in Minor C |
Wave minute ((iii)) is just at the location where a fourth wave down can overlap wave ((i)) and remain just shorter than minute ((ii)) as needed if this is a contracting diagonal.
Meanwhile, the ES futures have an intraday chart that looks like this one, so far.
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| ES Futures - 30 Minutes - Lower Low & Lower High |
We have a wave counting stop above resistance at 3,175, but, so far, the down move was one of the more impulsive waves we've seen in a while. So, downward movement should continue.
The next best count instead of (i), (ii), i, ii lower is just an (a)-(b)-(c), down and a new wave up. The downward count needs a new low in the after hours or sometime tomorrow. Right now i is shorter than (i), and ii is shorter than (ii) in price and time.
Have a very good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Perhaps Im measuring incorrectly, but I have i > (i). Did I miss something?
ReplyDeleteThanks.
It could be my problem, but ..
DeleteUnless the down wave is counted like this, there are all kinds of degree violations. There is no way to get a shorter sub-wave on the way down except like this.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/PNvxFCRP/
And with five waves up following, either we had the flat as shown for wave two, or we had just the (a),(b),(c) down that I noted as the alternate. But, if we did have the (a), (b), (c) down with different lengths, then the (c) wave down has the degree violations in it.
TJ
P.S. Sorry. Typo the first time.
??? All I know is that i > (i) on the 30 min chart above.
Delete..just move the one up to the low of the bar before - and degrees work. Don't, and they don't. Please don't argue. I said it could be my count problem, not yours.
DeleteExpanded flats following impulsive declines have appeared quite often of late...can be dicey as new low can confuse observers and elliott wave counts...
DeleteHere's a rare look at the overnight market. Although trading is thin, there was a marginal higher high. The up wave can count as a flat-x-zigzag labeled ((W)), ((X)), ((Y)). The first ((W)) would be the flat, of the flat-x-zigzag otherwise there is a potential degree problem on the way down.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/reby8
The chart also shows the 18-day SMA to be where today's S3 pivot support was. The classic pivot points will need to be updated for tomorrow. For now, price is below the 18-period intraday, and very short term has a negative bias. And the intraday Bollinger Bands are narrowing in, losing volatility in what can be a set up for a break-out/break-down.
TJ
Here's a morning look at the overnight session. First, price resistance appears to have moved down to the 3,155 level. So, a wave-counting stop should be moved down from 3,175 to 3,155.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/reisd
Second, daily pivots have been updated. Third, in a sign of weakness on the intraday level price could not reach the upper Bollinger Band or the down sloping trend line - at the red arrow - before falling off. While I'm not sure this smaller upward correction is done (as the cash market is not even open yet), keep your eye on the down-sloping trend line as a third wave should remain below it. Fourth, price is again trading below the lower 18-period intraday Bollinger Band and has intraday downward bias. And fifth, keep an eye on the level of the 18-day SMA (shown). It has moved up, and might cause a bounce.
TJ
3155 to the tick on /ES wow
Deletetic..toc..tick..toc .. I'm waiting for people to notice problems with the Nazzie chart, above, and the one posted at 08:16 EDT. I have posted them this way for a reason .. for a lesson.
ReplyDelete..the large price spike now in the ES is a hint .. tic toc
Delete..here's the price spike in the ES ..
Deletehttps://invst.ly/rej9r
TJ
The 0-ii trend line is broken. ii needs to move to the right.
DeleteBingo! TomE ..good response, and an even better response is because the down wave to about 02:30 am took more time than brown-i, we know it would have been a degree violation. So move wave ii to the right, as follows.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/rekdc
I'm glad to see some people are paying attention and learning. And on the Nazzie?
TJ
NQ: the b wave of ((iii)) looks longer than the ((ii)) wave.
Deleteb wave longer in time, not price. Degree violation?
DeletePerhaps my measure is off, but hasnt ii already exceeded the length of (ii) in price?
ReplyDeleteSeems this would be degree violation? Perhaps Ive missed something?
No, it's not your fault GW. I said it may have been my counting that was at fault. It is. It turns out that each of the segments of a 'c' wave at the low is shorter than an "a" wave down - allowing a 'c' wave count.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/remch
My apologies in advance. I was trying to count 'impulse first' as Elliott recommends, and the less likely triangles and diagonals only if that failed. It did fail.
TJ
ES 30-min; 4 candles closes above upper intraday Bollinger Band; drops the odds to about 1% of the next candle close above the band. Not impossible, so don't hear that. Just very low odds.
ReplyDeleteSeems like a ld in cash so far.
ReplyDeleteFrom yesterday low
DeleteAll. please see my note to GreyWaver at 12:22 EDT.
ReplyDeleteYeah so either we are a forming a big ld to downside first wave completed now abc to upside or we making a triangle for new high (based on cash)
Delete..yep .. maybe an LD would be minute ((i)) of an overall impulse to save a lot of waves later.
DeleteES candle close inside the intraday Bollinger Bands, as per the 4-candle above odds.
ReplyDeleteJoe
Deletewhats the threshold? Is it 4 candles or 3 .
Thanks in advance
so is that another 4 min candle outside bollinger band?
Deletebecause i think you are incorrect that the "next" bar has 1% chance. When you are at the average the probabilty of exceeding the band is small, once you have exceeded it you want to look at higher time frame - its mean reversion on a 4 minute plot, the forces for reversion are stronger as you go up in time. just wondering if you agree
Delete@marc .. I am not correct or incorrect. The probability of being inside of the band - if the market followed normal Gaussian statistics - which Mandelbrot proved is 'not' true .. is ~95 - 96%% on any time-frame. That is because the bands are two-standard deviation bands, and there are about 95-96% of observations within two std dev's. What Ira has done is say "for every consecutive close outside of the bands subtract an additional 1% from the 5% remaining (to be outside of the band) as a 'rule of thumb'. His Gaussian rationale is that consecutive closes are not 'independent events', they are causally driven.
DeleteSo, it is 'just' a 'Rule of Thumb'. It is not correct or incorrect. The most he has seen studying past charts is seven consecutive closes. The 'seven' also proves the market is not Gaussian distributed.
P.S. It helps to have a degree in statistics ; )
TJ
yes i have a slew of those degrees lol - - your explanation is what i was getting at - distirbutions and independence - but i didnt want to get too technical - thankfully you did. but it becomes a conditional probability - the probability of being outside band next bar (given you are outside of the band) is not the same as the probability of being outside the band next bar. thanks
Delete@marc .. concur with your last statement in the formal sense.
DeleteSo, let's see if the S&P500 wants to cooperate with a diagonal for a c wave, as follows.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/QZMLzmZQ/
TJ
Very small window for 4th wave: must go below 3169.29 but stay above 3167.02.
DeleteDiagonal busted.
DeleteLooking at your chart posted at 8:47 am what if i is part of a b wave correcting the diagonal down (i) and (ii) is the a wave with c possibly finishing up which would be (ii)? This would retrace the diagonal .786 at the moment and would "respect the diagonal." Thoughts?
ReplyDeletehi TJ .. yes, diagonals are being considered at this point.
DeleteToo close to the top now .. only a diagonal for minor wave B (or something larger) makes sense.
ReplyDeleteSP500 cash has gone over the top .. so we're looking at something else. Problem is .. on the futures .. subwaves upward don't make sense yet.
DeleteExpanded b in cash and triangle in futures i think but we go higher i think
DeleteA new chart is started for the next day.
ReplyDelete