If you could have kept me awake during the Federal Reserve Conference, that's what I would have said. Still, until invalidated by going over the high, within the context of the Minor C wave downward, this is the best count I can currently determine - based on the SPY and the ES futures. It looks easiest to interpret here, so that is the chart being shown.
 |
| SPY - 1 Hr - Minute ((ii)) |
Anything further lower requires closing the (b) wave gap and closing below minuet (b) of minute ((ii)).
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Hi Joe
ReplyDeleteLike your chart...sp 3260ish would be a back test of the uptrend line on the 60ty=the final kiss goodbye:)..at least a respectable correction. With the House debating the helicopter $ will IMO be a factor... another gap up possible....3300ish? Well I put on a short position with the explanation above. Stop will be as you mentioned a break of the 3280ish area and hold for 5-10 min. Have a great night, GL all
yes, about the back test.
DeleteI would not be at all surprised to see at least a tag of 3000 prior to a turn down in earnest as price could notch that level without a new ATH...
ReplyDeleteMorning Joe
ReplyDeleteI will be changing my stop this morn, since there looks to be early weakness..new stop yesterdays high 3265ish above there and holds for 5 min ish again Gl all
Joe..you follow the 10yr at all? Just an observation 4-21 it hit a low .543..Possible there could be a problem if it closes below..this morn pre .543
ReplyDelete2 hr gold contracting diagonal?
ReplyDeleteES has now undercut the FED day low, and tagged the 18-day SMA, or "the line in the sand".
ReplyDeletePer chart above, appears ((i)) was not exceeded on the move down, and has now retraced to the .618 area. Seems something else may be occurring?
ReplyDeleteThanks
Also, NQ double bottom with bull divs.
DeleteDifficult to trade
ReplyDeletePoss lower degree sharp 2nd wave? Still within assumed base channel (so far).
ReplyDeleteBig IF. If we did see a smaller degree 2nd wave, we could be going into a 3rd of a 3rd. Accordingly, should see acceleration I would think.
DeleteUnless you own some fancy algo you cannot trade the market in recent days
ReplyDeleteSomebody has tried to close the gap of cash but does not seem that he has been able to. I agree that these wide retraces are not easy to trade. But I recall Bill Williams's comment in his books: the market only clearly trends the 30% of the time.
ReplyDeleteIn future the retrace has a better impulsive look than the down move overnight
DeleteI agree, expecting a C into close. AB looks complete, but maybe I'm dreaming
DeleteI agree 6Q..the gap remains open..shall see. :)
Deleteup and away
ReplyDeleteAmazon smashes 2nd Qtr earnings, that should clear the stops top side
ReplyDeleteBacktesting the trendline here on /ES https://invst.ly/rmnlk
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDelete