In the S&P500 cash market it is possible to count "five-waves-up" including the possibility of an exhaustion gap. See the cash 15-minute chart below. The gap is still shown as a red circle as it is not closed yet.
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| SP500 Cash Index - 15 Minutes - "Five Up"? |
Notice the current perfection to which wave v would equal wave i. After the jobs report and the spike higher, we counted a downward wave, followed by a double-zigzag corrective wave higher to the 62% retrace level - in near real-time. (See the comments in the prior post for further details). This was followed by another downward wave that broke the prior local low.
As we know the cash markets will be closed tomorrow, and a lot of things can happen in the overnight futures. For a continued downward count, then the trend line from the high (shown as the dashed blue line) needs to be observed otherwise the only wave downward would have to begin as a diagonal, and not an impulse.
Is it possible this upward wave is not over? Yes, it is possible. In that case, perhaps wave iv would extend to a triangle. But, it is not required to, and there isn't even downward overlap in cash yet.
So, with five-waves up, this could be the minute ((c)) wave up, of the larger Minor B wave in the S&P500 and ES futures. The DOW has not crossed it's prior wave upward, and as we said yesterday, can still be in a triangle.
Have a great start to the long weekend if you are in the U.S.A., and a good start to your evening if elsewhere.
TraderJoe
Thanks for the update! Will you be posting tomorrow on the futures? I suggest you take a long weekend as well. Cheers.
ReplyDeleteEnjoy your July 4th holiday week-end!
ReplyDeleteDear Joe, First and foremost, Thank you so much for your detailed analysis day in and day out. I have been counting waves and trading(succesfully) for 22 years now and never have seen anywhere detailed and no nonsense counts you present.
ReplyDeleteI was also a student of Tony Caldaro and I used to read your analysis on his site with keen interest.Anyway Just wanted to appreciate your efforts.
You dont have to post this- But I seriously doubt that prevailing count we have here will pan out though. It could still play out but I think we are going to All time highs ( look at cumulative AD line and see where else you had that cross ATH and S&P didn't follow.
Thats all, like I said I am writting this post mainly to appreciate your blog and efforts and that after 22 yrs- I finally found a place where I think it will enhance my counting techniques.Thanks for sharing the videos as well.
A number of skilled traders have turned to modified breadth indicators due the outsized influence of tech(one is Chris Ciovaccio). Equal weight breadth analysis paints an insightful SPX picture.
DeleteFrom a historical point of view, inter index divergence is also very informative. Look at instances where new highs in NDX failed to be confirmed. Another useful hiistorical metric is market cap to GDP.
Ratios much higher than 150 have led to the same outcome. Without fail.
We certainly could go on to new ATH. The over-all technical picture, imho suggests a very eventful path to that ultimate outcome.
Agree- Thanks
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ReplyDeleteDear.
I am also thinking of the ATH zone in the short term.
I think it is not a recovery in V since February, but it will be a correction in W from February.
Right now finishing the first V, by the end of July.
The next thing is to start the second V with falls until more or less the US presidential elections.
The time pattern is A + B: 2 = 3 months more or less of a fall from the end of the first V in late July.
Also, this correction in W since February is part of a larger correction ... and bullish since the end of 2017.
It can be seen in Russel perfectly, where his ATH is in 2017.
The fact that it "corrects upwards" since 2017 is caused by the FED and its economic programs ... money printing.
Benner cycles are also very interesting.
Which, precisely, place the beginning of the correction in 2017.
And also, they place the end of the bearish cycle this year.
Perhaps, I finish the bull period in 2017, and almost without realizing it, I will start another bull period for the whole of this decade.
Regarding recessions, none of them since 1965 has been less than 50% since ATH.
This means we could see S&P a little bit lower than in February maybe.
Nothing else for now.
Thank you very much for your work, it is a great blog.
(From Spain);)