Tuesday, November 26, 2019

Typical Holiday Market - So Far

U.S. Debt Clock: $23.07 Trillion; prev $23.06
ES Daily Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close: Trend Day
Market Posture: Neutral-to-negative and Probing
Daily Swing Line: Higher
Daily Bias: Up (Settle Above 18-day SMA)

In a fairly typical pre-holiday market lots of big players make their exits to be with friends and family or on vacation and prices are more free to float higher. Such was seen at the end of the session today. The price bias has been over the 18-day SMA since October 11th. The swing line is now up again, and price has closed up over the daily upper Bollinger band.

ES Futures - Daily - Close Over the Upper Band

There is only roughly a 5% probability of prices closing over the upper band, by random chance, on any given day. Of course, we know this is not purely 'random chance'. Three-to-five consecutive days over the band starts to get very, very low probability - in the 1 - 2% range. Like it or not, the Smart Money plays the odds. The slow stochastic is still just in the over-bought category. And, the daily gap in the futures, themselves, has been highlighted.

From a shorter-term wave count perspective, the chart shown yesterday is updated again, below. Today's afternoon rise could be yet another bubble-licious ((B)) wave. A ((B)) wave in a (B) wave?

ES Futures - 45 Minutes - Expanded Flat

If higher prices are made tonight in the after-hours, that might well fit with the ((B)) wave of an expanded flat. Reliable quotes show the ES 10/22 ((B)) wave was not higher than wave i. Therefore, a higher high wave in wave iv might provide reasonable alternation, especially if price makes a lower low than ((A)) - which it did not in wave ii.  The alternate would have to be that the low of wave ((A)) is wave iv in a wedge count, but the EWO did not drop below the zero line. So, we still need to be patient and flexible. Nothing rules out higher highs for ((B)) or for v. There are 130 candles on the 45-minute chart, we may switch to an hourly chart, yet, before this wave is done. 

The parallel channel is clearly shown. Price has not come close to the lower channel boundary, yet. My suspicion is they're going to make any ((C)) wave down difficult to catch - possibly occurring in the after-hours, and likely on some news story out of China or about poor U.S. retail sales over the holiday weekend. At any rate, price is over the 18-day SMA, and the price bias and swing line are up. Right? 

I hope you enjoy the holidays, and as I will be, too, there may be less frequent interactions with the site for the next couple of days.

Now is a time to be grateful for what we have, and share it with those who would like to or need to.
TraderJoe


19 comments:

  1. Looks like we are getting a portion of the ((C)) wave down now.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The simple truth about binary options which many of us do not know is the fact that it is mainly based on predictions. Without proper knowledge of what next can happen to the stock market, you are sure to lose your funds. That is why it is important to be tutored or mentored by a professional investor in binary options. During my weeks of being mentored by Mrs Patricia Morgan, I’ve learnt much and also succeeding in trades and was able to recover my lost funds. Feel free to contact her on patriciamorgan984 @ gmail .com for positive results or contact her on Whats App on +32460230365

      Delete
  2. Thank you Joe, enjoy a nice holidays.

    ReplyDelete
  3. A reminder 3167 is the 1.382 of A
    and the maximum a B wave should go.
    Beyond that level and we are likely
    not in a B wave. Happy Thanksgiving to all
    and to all a good night !!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ET shows it at 3187 per post http://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2019/11/over-3079.html

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    2. Tj's showing Futures....mine is cash SPX

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  4. Not too much in the literature about the maximum permissible extension for the b wave of extended flat. I have heard a a few good EW analysts opine that a b wave designation should, as a general rule, be discarded at 200%. I can tell you with ontological certitude that in an era of CB driven liquidity, 1.38 will be exceeded...
    Happy Thanksgiving all!

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  5. I think it’s time to close shop on EW. There hasn’t been one EW website correctly calling this past year. TJ, you are way too smart for this. I wish you would focus on different TI. You are so good at what you do. I know you could develop something better.

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  6. In the most sincere and nicest way, I 100% agree. EW is getting blown up by design... Algos rule the market those who control them know the count that the majority are following

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  7. Judging by the comments here today we must be approaching a top. Monthly over upper BB, All other time frames right at it. If the December candle isn't red I'll have to join the anti Elliott Wavers.

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    Replies
    1. I actually think a turn is coming soon and it's not based on EW

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  8. Yea but he has constantly been relabeling over the last 3 weeks. Eventually anyone can be right... That's not a strategy.

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  9. I don't mean that disrespectfully either. He obviously puts a lot of work into what he does. My opinion is it just doesn't work

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  10. Today we could close over the daily BB. Perhaps Friday as well.
    Then a close next week back in the BB's and its a sell signal.

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  11. Just an observation.

    https://imgur.com/zoygDrn

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    Replies
    1. Currently, near symmetry of two up legs within channel in time as well.(fwiw).

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  12. A new post has been started for the next day.

    ReplyDelete
  13. The simple truth about binary options which many of us do not know is the fact that it is mainly based on predictions. Without proper knowledge of what next can happen to the stock market, you are sure to lose your funds. That is why it is important to be tutored or mentored by a professional investor in binary options. During my weeks of being mentored by Mrs Patricia Morgan, I’ve learnt much and also succeeding in trades and was able to recover my lost funds. Feel free to contact her on patriciamorgan984 @ gmail .com for positive results or contact her on Whats App on +32460230365

    ReplyDelete