Tuesday, November 19, 2019

Closing in on minute ((c)) = minute ((a)) - - Part 3

U.S. Debt Clock: $23.05 Trillion; prev $23.05
ES Daily Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Lower Close: Yin-Yang Day
Market Posture: Neutral-to-negative and Probing
Daily Swing Line: Higher (Higher High, Higher Low)
Daily Bias: Up (Settle Above 18-day SMA)

In terms of measurements, we have shown this chart of a projection of minute ((c)) = minute ((a)) for several days. The Dow cash, S&P500 cash, and QQQ currently share these same Fibonacci length measurements.

ES Futures - 5 Hr - Minute ((c)) = Minute ((a))

Note that today's slight higher high occurred with a confirmed divergence on the MACD. This indicator has crossed below it's signal line to confirm the divergence. Still, the ES daily slow stochastic is still fully embedded.

IF today's top holds, and we still prefer to see price movement below 3,110 in the form of a downward overlap, then it is possible the Intermediate ((B)) wave is completed in the following fashion. 

S&P500 Cash Index - 2 Day - Intermediate (B)

In the above example, then note that the triangle is the Minor X wave. Please also note that the minute ((e)) wave of the triangle does not end exactly on the ((a))-to-((c)) trend line - just as Neely indicates it should not. Also, note that the move out of the triangle does appear like a single "thrust" out of a triangle. If today's top holds, that remains our primary count. 

In the event that there is a further higher wave, then this alternate, below, would best apply.

S&P500 Cash Index - 2 Day - Intermediate (B) ALTERNATE

The alternate is offered as today's price movement down was small. That could change. In the case of the this second chart, the triangle is a minor B wave with the same characteristics. Why such uncertainty regarding an alternate? Well, that is the nature of corrective waves in wave theory. There is nothing I can do about such a level of uncertainty. If the market did not have some uncertainty, it would cease to be a market.

Have a good start to the evening,
TraderJoe

29 comments:

  1. Thanks Joe! As always your analysis is very insightful. I really appreciate what you do and I've learned so much. I just wanted you to know

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The simple truth about binary options which many of us do not know is the fact that it is mainly based on predictions. Without proper knowledge of what next can happen to the stock market, you are sure to lose your funds. That is why it is important to be tutored or mentored by a professional investor in binary options. During my weeks of being mentored by Mrs Patricia Morgan, I’ve learnt much and also succeeding in trades and was able to recover my lost funds. Feel free to contact her on patriciamorgan984 @ gmail .com for positive results or contact her on Whats App on +32460230365

      Delete
  2. Very insightful observation regarding the nature of techincal analysis, including EW, and unavoidable uncertainty in the market. I suspect the disparagement of EW by some individuals stems from the fallacious premise claimed by some EW analysts that the methodlogy is a "science" or infallibly "predictive", a remarkable claim in view of the fact, which has been correctly pointed out, that many of these folk have been woefully wrong in many of their predictions. Claiming "predictive" ability is balderdash. Reading Joe's consistent, systematic, and rule-based analysis is greatly appreciated. Thanks man!

    ReplyDelete
  3. Very much appreciated indeed.
    Arrival at PI 3142,8 between november 22 and 27 ,and Tom Russo 's Gann target as well, retested eventually on December 3 is what i look for.
    O

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  4. ES 53535 contracting diagonal off the top on 5min?

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  5. The difference between primary and alternate being that if you could count the second extension higher as a 5 then you would presume the first wave off that low was also a 5 for a corrective ZigZag B wave.

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  6. sure looks like 5 waves down in the ES futures from 3132.50 to whatever the overnight low may be

    rallies should stay below 3130 and closing under 3097 could lead to 3020ish

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  7. To clarify, are you saying that the initial leg up from Dec low could be either W:3 or A:5?
    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. yes..more likely the former as it was counted originally.

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  8. Having difficulty closing a 6 1/2 pt gap !!!!

    Thats a tell.

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  9. Notice how price has been confined by this 2/1 Gann fan line:

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/1wnbqTPp/

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  10. Probable nested first and second underway...

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  11. SPX 60 min Algo moves into sell territory---waiting on the 240 to join.

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  12. In the short run, I'd keep an eye on this channel.

    https://invst.ly/oq4z1

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. ..after several closes below the channel, and length back-test, price fails at the channel with a lower low.

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    2. ..chart update; getting more impulsive, lower.

      https://invst.ly/oq5un

      TJ

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  13. After nested 1,2s, third down underway...

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  14. the 180 minute Algo has gone to sell side.
    The 240 minute will likely go on the close.
    When these turn its about 85 % the turn is for real.

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    Replies
    1. Smart money has been selling the rips for weeks. Just look at the downside candles during the run-up. TlT turned ahead of the top about a week ago....

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  15. A B triangle C up...5 down ahead to complete impulse...?

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  16. A new post has been started for the next day.

    ReplyDelete
  17. The simple truth about binary options which many of us do not know is the fact that it is mainly based on predictions. Without proper knowledge of what next can happen to the stock market, you are sure to lose your funds. That is why it is important to be tutored or mentored by a professional investor in binary options. During my weeks of being mentored by Mrs Patricia Morgan, I’ve learnt much and also succeeding in trades and was able to recover my lost funds. Feel free to contact her on patriciamorgan984 @ gmail .com for positive results or contact her on Whats App on +32460230365

    ReplyDelete