Please note this measurement taken slightly before the close. The cash S&P500 Index daily has now reached the 90% level of the prior high.
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| S&P500 Cash Index - Daily - Gap Closed at 90% |
This means without trick, deceit or breaking of any rules, this wave, in this index, can qualify for a flat wave. Qualifying for a flat after the three-waves down into December is one thing. The further wave structure needed to allow it would also be required to occur.
There is not yet a key outside reversal day since March, and the mid-March peak has not been overlapped downward. In short, there is nothing compelling a downward count just yet.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Thank you Joe. The count in XOP seem to be panning out for the time being. Looking for 28.3 area by Monday or Tuesday. https://www.tradingview.com/x/bYxk9dBL/ Please ignore my random lines
ReplyDeleteThaks Joe. Is 2900 still the level you will share an alternate longer term count?
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteOriginal Post 1-21-19
ReplyDeleteOriginally this post was characterized as a waste of time typing. However as the market continues to climb, the 5 original possibilities have been reduced to 3 reasonable patterns and the possibility of the Oct 3 high being the final top shrinks with each advance and with the fact that we are now considering corrective patterns such as a flat.
DISTILLING DOWN THE POSSIBILITIES
Sometimes EW is more predictive and sometimes it is less predictive. It is my opinion, and the only opinion I will offer, that this is one of the times that EW is less predictive. I will attempt to enumerate the possibilities as I see them in a logical way.
THE FACTS:
It is irrefutable that we have 3 waves down form the Oct 3 top.
The internal counts of the motive waves (the down waves) are unclear. Some want to count them as 5’s and other’s want to count them as 3’s. This point will only be resolved and clarified with the passage of time when the larger degree pattern develops.
We are smack dab in the middle of an extremely wide range between the Oct high and the Dec low which leaves room for a number of possible patterns to develop with no close by invalidation points.
POSSIBILITIES
I view the possibilities as being divided into 2 camps.
The Oct high was “The Top”
The Oct high was not “The Top”
OCT WAS “THE TOP” POSSIBILITIES
We would be operating with a downward count scenario. Due to overlap, an impulse has been eliminated. That leaves only one other possibility.
1. A leading diagonal with wave 1 down complete and wave 2 up in progress. This count is in serious jeopardy now since there has been a 90% retracement.
OCT WAS NOT “THE TOP” POSSIBILITIES
Under this scenario we would be presuming that the Oct top was Int (3) rather than Int (5)
We would then be evaluating a Int(4) correction in an upward count.
1. The 3 wave move from the Oct high was a (5-3-5)zigzag representing all of Int (4). Still in play.
2. The 3 wave move from the Oct high was a (5-3-5)zigzag representing the first leg of a double zigzag. Not likely since there has been a 90% retracement. 3. The 3 wave move from the Oct high was a (3-3-3) Minor1 of an Int (4) triangle. Still in play.
4. The 3 wave move from the Oct high was a (3-3-3) the first wave of a flat or complex Int (4) Still in play.
Thanks
Deletewasnt a waste of time
Not unlike the suggestion on 1/5/19 (first comment) that we could be in wave B, with possibility of retesting Jan '18 high and possible flat. :o)
DeleteWhy do you exclude that Oct 2018 was "THE TOP" and what we are seeing now is the beginning of a Super cycle (or what it is) flat/expanded flat wave 2?
DeleteAnyway your post is NOT a waste of time typing ;)
The prospect of easy money policy will simply put the breaks on any massively bearish views. I would say we see a new ATH and rally into May before seeing the usual weakness into the ‘Sell in May and Go Away’ window. Then the fireworks into Q4 to suck in all the rest of the sidelined monies to peak in stylish fashion as we open into the new decade.
ReplyDeleteShanghai looks like 5 waves up from Jan
ReplyDeleteFar nicer looking ~50% retrace X/ii wave possibilities still on the table for DAX and Nikkei. Could be used for reference to find an easier wave count.
ReplyDeleteThe issue is whats the alternate count if we are not correcting the entire bull market since 2009. If one believes the market did not top in 5 waves last October, then we are looking at an impulse and its similar to start of other big waves. I posted similarities and differences were pointed out.
ReplyDeleteI dont know if its not necessarily that primary 5 is the only alternate wave count applying the rules. I am no expert. I have spent time trying to learn another way of counting waves on this site. The concerns i have are
1) No explicit rules published for wave degree labeling
2) No way of knowing whether using the rules actually improve predictability
Right now applying the rules since 2009 appears that there are 5 waves up and we are in a correction which is starting out as a flat and should last several years.
The counts on this site since October are based on the premise that 5 waves ended at ATH. ET has not been telling people over and over we are at a top and short the market. He has tried his best to not call tops against a larger premise which demands he does so at some point in time. His counts have had us in A and C waves and those are motive waves in upward direction so he has done well.
For months I have wanted to understand what other count from 2009 could be valid in which the December low was the end of a correction. I have spent a lot of time trying to apply my understanding of "rules" and find alternate bullish counts.
I am no expert at applying rules given that I dont have the rules, but, one count which appears valid, is extremely bullish by that I mean we are in Primary 3.
Again, I dont know if thats even possible with these counting rules. But if it is permissible, then we are not counting a B wave of a flat. We are counting what could be the biggest wave of the entire bull market. Again, i am no expert but I know ET scenario calling for major top and start of correction as a flat for now and all counts on way up while objective are based on the long term top at ATH. It would also be helpful to know if its not ATH and ET count is wrong, what are possibilities according to the methodology on this site. Using the rules from ET we rule out invalid counts. However, I have yet to see a long term count presented or discussed which would be valid other than the working assumption. The market can go much higher and ET count can be 100% correct. I don't want a prediction of where the market is going. EW stresses you must know the alternate. I do not know the alternate and dont understand why sharing this information would not be part of the discussion the last few months. My guess is others share this same view.
Again, as I mentioned in several spots above, step back and recognize the value ET has added with his repeated warnings not just about EW but trading this move.
Gold B of a flat?
ReplyDeleteGold has overlap so we may be in the 5 of the 335 flat.
DeleteNDX100 have overlaped, maybe ndx will do a diagonal ((c)) also? Looks like zigzags from 7250
ReplyDeletei see same thanks
ReplyDeleteA new post has been started for the next day.
ReplyDelete