Dow Solo new High

The Dow futures made a new high today over the previous day. The Nasdaq 100 futures, the ES E-Mini S&P futures, and the Russell 2000 futures did not. The Dow has some interesting trend lines shown in two versions below on the four-hourly futures chart (YM).

YM (Dow) Futures - 4 Hr - Overlapping Count # 1

The above is one way to see the latest four-hour wave in the Dow, as a completed count. But, we have learned to be very patient with these things and note that the Elliott Wave Oscillator did not get that close to the zero line. And, there is an odd way to count the same chart with a flat wave in it.

YM (Dow) Futures - 4 Hr - Overlapping Count #2

Much of the market has a holiday tomorrow. So, the overlapping count might continue into the evening and weekend in the futures. It's very difficult to say, so please remain flexible, calm and patient as these waves potentially wrap up.

The daily ES futures temporarily lost their embedded daily slow stochastic reading this morning, but by the close regained it. Bottom line is so far, that market has only made a three-wave sequence lower. It does not appear as if the volatility squeeze we wrote about earlier is completely over in all equity markets. The reason for saying this - beyond the Dow's new high - is that the S&P500 cash index (at this time) can still only be counted as three-waves-down from its high, as follows.

S&P500 Cash Index - 15 Minutes - Three Waves Down

This is as messy and as ugly a chart as one will see. There was first the Leading Diagonal shown in blue as (i) - (v) which we called out in real time yesterday. Then, there was a flat wave this morning followed by the impulse c wave, to a new daily low. This makes wave counting exceptionally difficult at the moment, and the interpretation even worse. With only an a-b-c lower, we can not assume that all of the upward movement is over just yet.

Have a good start to the long weekend.

TraderJoe