Monday, April 8, 2019

ES 4-Hr Still on A Divergence

Given that the Elliott Wave Oscillator on the four-hour chart is still on a divergence - which is even beginning to widen - it is possible the potential divergence will play out as expected, making the minute ((c)) wave.

ES E-Mini S&P500 Futures - 4-HR - Divergence Widening

The lower trend line remains tentative.

There are technically two forms the diagonal could play out as. The second one has Friday's high as "the" high. But, we think the degree labeling and trend lines work out better on the count shown above. Additional overlap is required for the form of the diagonal shown above.

Have a good start to the day!
TraderJoe
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22 comments:

  1. Mark ThimeschApril 8, 2019 at 10:17 AM

    Thank you, Joe! Have an awesome day!

    ReplyDelete
  2. BBRiderApril 8, 2019 at 2:50 PM

    Gold looks to be un the makings of a diagonal for c of 2.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. BBRiderApril 8, 2019 at 3:51 PM

      That last high may only be 1 because it was 2 equal moves.

      Delete
  3. marcApril 8, 2019 at 3:09 PM

    when do you have to start an impulse count off the december low?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. marcApril 8, 2019 at 4:32 PM

      because we would be in iii of 3 for over a week and looking for 1.618 extensions not topping patterns.

      Delete
  4. Elliott_TraderApril 8, 2019 at 4:57 PM

    At the end of the day, the ES/SPX made a marginally higher high, with the 4-hr ES on an even worse divergence. (The Dow did not make a higher high.) In doing so, the potential third wave of the potential diagonal is now 78.6% of the first leg. That is the max to which it can be stretched without taking on the "wrong look" with trend lines that don't converge. Beyond here, I will be publishing the alternate count for the up wave.

    The daily chart since the Dec 24th low has only 69 candles, which is nowhere near what is needed to count using The Eight Fold Path Method. As a result, the upward count would still be corrective in one of two forms.

    ReplyDelete
  5. marcApril 8, 2019 at 4:58 PM

    thanks

    ReplyDelete
  6. Erik BApril 8, 2019 at 5:24 PM

    This wave also burning lots of time,
    further evidence of the expanded diagonal imho,
    move from 2785 25/3 = c of (v) of expanded diagonal?

    ReplyDelete
  7. GeraldApril 8, 2019 at 6:02 PM

    something I am watching

    https://invst.ly/ahrv3

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderApril 8, 2019 at 8:38 PM

      Hi Gerald. A few issues. a) the upper trend line doesn't fit too well. Not impossible, but not the best. b) the (2) covers "too much price" for a prior B wave, and makes it a degree violation, c) you'd have to prove a clear zigzag with (2) and (4). Possible, but the downward counts are muddled.

      Delete
  8. GeraldApril 8, 2019 at 6:22 PM

    I think this looks and works better

    https://invst.ly/ahryv

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderApril 8, 2019 at 8:41 PM

      Still thing the B is a bit short in time, there. Not impossible, but quite short for what follows it.

      Delete
  9. GeraldApril 8, 2019 at 9:02 PM

    thanks for looking at them both joe. I was not sure of that 1 to 3 line rule. have not seen enough of these to see if that is real issue or not.

    there is a potential running triangle but I struggled to get that to work in a count. perhaps you could. 0 for triangle is around first of march. the b is between 3/19 and 3/24. e is what we just shot out of. hard to see any waves in there. looks like straight shot.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Elliott_TraderApril 9, 2019 at 1:08 PM

    Watch this intraday chart very closely ... it looks like the (e) wave of the triangle just gave way lower. May need a retrace wave yet.

    https://invst.ly/ai1p7

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderApril 9, 2019 at 1:25 PM

      Now below the blue (c) wave of the triangle. Can still get a retrace for this current down wave. Can impulse lower, or with three waves up can just stall out and make a flat wave. This is where counting gets interesting.

      Delete
    2. Elliott_TraderApril 9, 2019 at 1:31 PM

      Chart update below.

      https://invst.ly/ai1y1

      TJ

      Delete
  11. BBRiderApril 9, 2019 at 2:50 PM

    ET, Do you have any ideas off the 1284.9 low in gold?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. BBRiderApril 9, 2019 at 3:02 PM

      I can finagle an impulse but it is not pretty.

      Delete
    2. Elliott_TraderApril 9, 2019 at 3:22 PM

      1 = 1298.6, 2 = 1288.3, 3 = 1310.5 at 1.618; or A,B,C with C = 1.618 x A.
      Down move is not very fast yet.

      Delete
  12. Elliott_TraderApril 9, 2019 at 4:02 PM

    At the end of the day, SP500 made a few new lows; Dow could only eek out a 90% down wave from it's three-wave high - and just barely. I suspect a flat wave.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Elliott_TraderApril 9, 2019 at 4:37 PM

    A new post has been started for the next day.

    ReplyDelete

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