I was quite clear over the weekend that today could see the typical "first trading day of the month" inflows from pension funds, company bonuses, 401k's, dividend reinvestment programs, etc., and these did materialize. This resulted in a large gap-up day - and even quite a large gap in the overnight futures. Further, it did indeed result in a new high for the Dow - as a pop up out of its triangle shown in the prior post.
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| ES E-Mini S&P500 Index Futures - Daily - Gap Up Day |
Such gaps in the futures are quite rare, and its persistence today seems to signify a third wave - one way or the other. The chart above includes the best labeling I can determine at this time, including a healthy respect for the degree labels of the waves.
It is the best way I can tell to synch up the Dow's triangle - shown over the weekend - with the S&P.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
thanks Joe
ReplyDeleteIn gold, it looks like all that funkiness was part of an contracting ed for the 5.
ReplyDeleteLooks like its trying and Expanding LD off the bottom, do not really like back to back diagonals.
DeleteThe move off the bottom in gold looks like there is and expanding triangle in the middle. If that is the case this could be the 4 of the ending diagonal and we have one last low coming. Would be nice and there is room for a low that would get under 1287.3 which a think is a of E on the weekly.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/N7QfslB
ReplyDeleteThis wave in Gold seems to be to long in time to be a 4 of the contracting ED for 5. It would lead me to put five at 1289.5. Then I think we have a diagonal the other way which I believe is ok because its part of the correction and not the prior impulse. I would put us in c of 4 of the upward diagonal.
DeleteSeems better.. BBR.. good job.
DeleteWhat is your weekly/monthly count for gold? Thanks
DeleteJoe, your count looks good. But when wave iv tests support and that support from prior high holds, i tend to think wave v will go on to test the all time highs. This looks like a cup and handle formation since December and new highs are likely after a bit more chop in the handle.
ReplyDeleteUpside target of 2875 just about achieved. I am out.
ReplyDeleteGood luck catching the break of the rising bearish wedge traders!
Looks to me like the entire rally wave completed at 3:52pm today. Wouldn't be surprised to see a large gap down tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteInteresting. In cash I could only count three waves down and an exact 78.6% retrace which halted the futures advance to the exacte double top. Part of a triangle fourth?
DeletePatience and flexibility remain paramount.
First thing you have to know is that the 2872.90 high print that occurred in the 1st minute of SPX trading this morning was a bad print. I don't know what stock caused that error, but it also showed up in OEX, but not in any other index. It was easy to spot in real time because if it had been real, then it would have also been reflected in the futures, as well as all the inverse SPX ETFs, but they were showing the real price as lower on the open, while SPX was almost 6 points higher. It took the exchange 3 minutes to correct the error, but they never corrected the prints. Truth be told, I've never seen that happen before. Nevertheless, you have to use yesterday's high of 2869.40 as the end of the previous up wave, which was then taken out at the end of the day with the 2869.81 print. So, until proven otherwise, I'm calling the move from today's low to the high as a 5th wave EDT. Of course, it could also turn out to be a (b) wave, but we should know which is which after tomorrow's 1st hour.
Delete/ES could be done here on that trade deal spike. Nice channel puts that move in the middle.
DeleteThe trade news eliminates the completed 5th wave that I suggested before.
Deletehi verne carty
ReplyDeleteif the high point is done, now we go down to where?
lower than December?
thank you
Off the bottom on gold I got three turns to the right. Ugly looking three, on flat watch.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/yvfYo8x
Thanks Joe for the comments. It looks like to me 2019 might mimic the irrational exuberance of 1999 before we peak in 2020. Buy tiny OTM calls to hedge against the bearish views.
ReplyDeleteES sure looks cooked on 30 min
ReplyDeleteLong live the press.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmB0F0.jpg?itok=czDdz-3Q
ndx leading - change in degree
ReplyDeleteNow getting a nice 4-Hr bearish engulfing candle - which 'may' start the wave sequence down to (iv), or more. I expect the wave to play out on a 4-hr time frame in the futures. Chart below.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/age1o
TJ
Joe. Suppose this is a top of move from December.
ReplyDeleteWhat is the probability there exists an acceptable wave count using degree rules which would then count the move as complete.
No. I won't suppose.
DeleteIts a theoretical question getting at predictability. There have been counts every week which "could" be top or are patterns which "could" resolve in top in short order. I know you are just counting the waves objectively and its appreciated. I'm curious what is chance a top will arise in accordance with your preferred count at that time versus having to fit a retroactive count based on your years of experience. Thats what I meant to ask.
DeleteJust started following you, TJ. Once the ending diagonal triangle completes do you see a retracement to the Dec 2018 lows (2346)?
ReplyDeleteLet's see where it completes first.
DeleteA new post has been started for the next day.
ReplyDelete