I had said that any alternative upward counts would be dependent on price being above the 2,900 level. Being true to my word, with the futures up strongly on bank earnings this morning, and over the 2,900 level, this is the best alternative I can find that still honors the wave 0 - 2 guideline. It is still a corrective count, and likely still to the minor B wave of a flat.
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| DJIA - 4 HR - Alternative Corrective Count |
This count is based on the DJIA cash, but a similar (but not exactly the same) count works in the cash S&P500 and the futures, as well. The "running triangle" with it's higher (b) wave portended bullish implications, and a diagonal count would no longer fit well, immediately after it's cousin, the triangle.
Note in this count that wave minute ((x)) is longer in time than wave minute ((w)), so that seems to fit the corrective nature of the wave, as well. Further, this makes minute wave ((x)) of 'higher degree" than either of the second, ii, or (b) waves preceding it.
Have a good start to the day.
TraderJoe
Nice, TJ. I spent 30 mins this morning going over SPX, DAX and Nikkei and arrived at the same count. US markets are just stretched way higher for a flat. This might be because of yen carry trade, thus money flooding into the US.
ReplyDeleteGlad to hear it, C.
DeleteJoe what is the alternate impulsive count? where are we since 2009?
ReplyDeleteIF you 'want' a higher count, you can still have a triple ZZ instead of a double. But, any 'impulsive' count breaks the 0 - 2, which hasn't had to be done before. Therefore, I'm just staying as objective as I can, counting and measuring the waves and not 'wanting' anything - one way or the other. Further, from everything others have commented on, an impulse count also makes several degree violations on the way up. So that is a second 'red flag'.
Deletei understand. I want to be objective as well... thats why i am asking.
DeleteWhy not simply A B and we are in 3 of C. Measured move looks pretty straight forward.
ReplyDeleteAgain, breaks the guideline that all of a third wave should be above a trend line drawn from 0 - 2, and creates degree violations.
DeleteToday's open looks like thrust out of a triangle
ReplyDeleteHi Roy. On the ES futures, I don't think Elliott or I would pick a fight on the triangle. It could be the (b) wave of minute ((y)).
Deletehttps://invst.ly/aj461
TJ
Thanks TJ. Your attached chart is exactly what I was seeing.
DeleteTJ and Roy, If it is the (b) wave of ((y)) would the target for wave v of (c) of ((y)) be 2926ish? That is by using a technique in an earlier post by taking the largest displacement of the triangle (a to b 28 points) and adding it to the trend line of the triangle after d (approx 2898). Of course I understand that this is a typical result and right now if we are starting (c) up we need to be on the lookout for truncation. All I am asking is that with the triangle proposed here (being (b) of ((y)) the math of the technique shows typically where v of (c) of ((y)) should happen?
DeleteThis mornings low in gold may only be i of 5. Deep retrace is about to stand up to the 100% test of time.
ReplyDeleteIf correct a flush is near.
DeleteJoe, I believe Neely said (paraphrasing) after a move down if an up move takes longer in time to get back to the high it is corrective. Is that valid on all time frames?
ReplyDeleteI haven't tested the 71 second time frame (lol!).
Deletethat is why he thinks the move from 2009 bottom is corrective. You can "test" the theory with that example if you would like.
DeleteExcuse me. The chart below shows that the time out of the prior correction was less than the time of the correction. Hence, turn in degree. Turn in trend.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/aj4ap
TJ
your chart is accurate. but thats not what he was doing. he was looking for a change in degree and it didnt happen at the bottom.
Deletesee chart
https://imgur.com/HH5OVYe
this is similar to the recovery from december. took longer to retrace.
i think he also compared the (C) wave in your diagram to the recovery and again it was too slow
DeleteExcuse me. There is a way to answer that argument too. Eight (8) bars beats eleven (11) bars off the bottom.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/aj4d-
TJ
Joe excuse me. Im not arguing or trying to extablish any count. I am just putting forth what Neely has expressed in his posts and videos. Perhaps he is right and you have shown how he should have enforced the rule. But please dont misunderstand my putting forth information as any sort of opinion n my part.
ReplyDeletethanks
I am asking you to use your critical thought when it comes to Neely saying that the longest bull market in history is not a bull market. If he was short during his 'corrective' wave, he and his fund people would be broke.
DeleteAnd what evidence do you have of returns for money he has managed? Why does he now favor the "river" approach and minimize his reliance on EW? Use your critical thought - something not right in the evolution of his "business".
ReplyDeleteHere you go. I think it speaks for itself.
Deletehttps://www.neowave.com/performance.asp
TJ
thats not trading performance.
Deletehe cant publish investment performance: "To comply with U.S. laws, we are permitted to share Fund performance and details only with qualified investors who specifically request this information. "
When you get hold of actual performance we can analyze it.
You didn't see his charts?
Deleteno. im getting his performance numbers.
DeleteNEoWave Institute's Glenn Neely is forecasting the largest vertical drop of the decade for the S&P 500. Neely predicts the stock market will decline 50% in the next 6 months.
ReplyDeleteTechnically speaking, according to NEoWave a correction began at last October's low; the March-June rally is the final leg of that correction
The March-June rally is now ending, allowing the bear market to resume. During the next six months, the S&P will decline 50% or more, breaking well below 500!
Aliso Viejo, CA (PRWEB) June 16, 2009 -- Glenn Neely, founder of NEoWave Institute and prominent Elliott Wave analyst, today announces a startling prediction: The S&P 500 is forming a major top in June, which will be followed by a large decline, eventually pushing the stock market to record lows for the decade.
"Technically speaking, according to NEoWave a correction began at last October's low; the March-June rally is the final leg of that correction," Neely explains. "The March-June rally is now ending, allowing the bear market to resume. During the next six months, the S&P will decline 50% or more, breaking well below 500!" Currently, the S&P is hovering around 917.
Glenn Neely is providing this information not as a specific trade recommendation but as a general public service announcement. A prominent Elliott Wave analyst, Neely was recently recognized in Timer Digest's May issue as the #1 stock market timer for the past 12 months.
For those who want detailed trading strategies and insight, Neely provides specific recommendations to subscribers of the NEoWave Trading Service
my point is his analysis at that point in time used the 2 boxes in my posted chart. Thats why he was looking for much lower prices.
ReplyDeleteRight, and my point is there are still 'several ways' to pick the last recovery high until he specifies it better.
Deleteyes. I think you have found a way to specify and wouldn't think you need any more guidance on that topic from anyone.
ReplyDeleteHello marc
ReplyDeleteI do not understand your text
you say that neely sees a 50% drop
in May 2019?
where are you talking about 2009
Thank you
I do not know of when is this text that publishes marc, but you can today ask for a neowave free trial and see that the last Neely analysis different with what says this text about a 50% drop. He thinks in this moment that it is forming a flat on S&P and after, the bull market continues.
DeleteBut is evident that his system fails. He let to analyse intraday waves, next he let to analyse daily waves and now he only analyses from weekly. Considering that the theory of waves fractal, something fails if no longer can be applied at least on daily charts.
I suppose that for this reason, Joe continues studying intensively the behaviour of the waves, degrees and timings and if possible, improve the theory.
Marc and TJ were discussion Neeley's 2008-20099 analyst and its potential implications on the current rally: from Marc's posted text from Neeley "Aliso Viejo, CA (PRWEB) June 16, 2009"
DeleteFrom this past post, I thought the initial comment and shaded replies underneath might be interesting to review at this time.
ReplyDeletehttp://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2019/01/fewer-words-today.html
Reviewing this whole discussion emanating from Neeley's description of a neutral triangle (new to me). I am not sure I buy into this rise from 2009 is a ((D)) - because of the size but I could see this developing currently - would explain a lot.
ReplyDelete1) Jan 2018 decline = A (using the ABC count)
2) Mar - Oct = B
3) Oct - Dec = C (largest / most violent decline)
4) Dec - current = slower than Oct - Dec so its corrective = D and should achieve a ATH even within an ABC with further C to go
To get this to work off the 2009 low - because this 2018 - 2019 consolidation is the largest in price and time. I would propose the first wave off 2009 was the extended wave.
joe can you post an alternate count since 2009 in which december 2018 would be a 2 or 4 of any degree? if not can you explain why you do not want to provide such an alternate. thanks.
ReplyDeleteHello marc
ReplyDeleteyou say it's from May 2019 that it goes down by 50%
no. that was july 2009. i dont have a directional opinion
ReplyDeleteA new post was started for the next day.
ReplyDelete