While we are waiting for the stock indexes to more fully resolve, this bonus chart is being presented. It is of the EUR/USD daily, and it is a fine example of an Expanding Diagonal, in real time.
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| EUR/USD - Daily - Expanding Diagonal |
It is very, very rare that you get to see such a pattern on a daily chart, so I didn't want to miss the opportunity to present it to you. I have literally been waiting weeks for the correct measurements to be established, and now they are.
Both the price signatures and the time signatures are correct. Wave (v) is longer than wave (iii) which is longer than wave (i). Wave (iv) is longer than wave (ii) and overlaps wave (i). Wave (iv) is also longer than wave (ii) in time as well as in price. I have not seen this count presented by anyone else, and as far as I know, it is original with me.
Both the price signatures and the time signatures are correct. Wave (v) is longer than wave (iii) which is longer than wave (i). Wave (iv) is longer than wave (ii) and overlaps wave (i). Wave (iv) is also longer than wave (ii) in time as well as in price. I have not seen this count presented by anyone else, and as far as I know, it is original with me.
There is an outside reversal bar at the bottom, and it occurs on a divergence with the EWO. The only caution is to verify that this up bar is not part of a fourth wave of c of (v). Otherwise, from a wave counting perspective, the pattern may be considered complete.
Have a good start to your day.
TraderJoe
Nice chart. Very well formed. Thank you Joe.
ReplyDeleteWelcome 6Q!
DeleteThanks Joe. I was looking at this a couple of days ago and could not see this count forming. This is very educational post. My guess is that (v) has a little more to go, looking for c = a.
ReplyDeleteWelcome.
DeleteDaily CL slipping, below the "line in the sand" and embedded stoch. lost.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/an4wo
Nice chart. Glad to see you picking up on these ideas!
DeleteThanks ET, greatly appreciate your posts!
Deletejoe can you explain a bot bit about larger degree 4th wave which residents of peoria would not be open to hearing about
ReplyDeletemarc:
DeleteGood luck getting an explanation. I've had little luck as well.
The very poss. flat suggested in Jan (to which the reply was "No. Degree violation") is now in progress. In Jan, the path was down via diagonal. It remained so until it finally became apparent the flat was likely. But, by then, no degree violation. Additionally, now we're "right on track".
I asked what specific change in count allowed for the flat to no longer be a degree violation. "No change". To better understand, asked what specific wave 3 is being retraced by this larger degree 4th. No reply.
Your question is similar (simply trying to get clarification). To date, no reply. No longer term chart(s) offered to show how this larger 4th fits in.
Not sure what is transpiring here. Hopefully you can get an answer to clear things up!
Thanks for continuing to try!
The "No. Degree Violation" comment was in response to the now Intermediate fourth wave (4), that almost everyone has adopted including Elliott Wave International - and as I said - they completely renumbered their charts and created the other degree violations in the process. As I said, I will not do that.
DeleteI really can't help you much if I say "larger degree wave" and you don't know what wave degree is larger than Intermediate, according to R.N. Elliott's well-established and almost universally adopted wave nomenclature system (except for the mangled system used by OEW because they do not respect the principle of wave degree in their overall counts).
marc:
DeletePerhaps you can understand my dilemma.
https://imgur.com/PiVaSmD
Like almost all Elliotticians, I was looking for a bear market to start with "five waves down". Elliott Wave International was, and so was I. In fact, we got "five waves down" to the first circle ((a)) wave which I counted out in real time as the Leading Diagonal. But then, after the three waves up that I counted out perfectly - where others were 'already' looking for new highs, and I said 'couldn't' happen, we did get another leg down. I was correct again. They were not.
DeleteAs the low approached, I was seeing trouble brewing, and I published this post on Dec 23th, the day before the bottom!
http://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2018/12/ (Title Short Term Pop?!)
Few others decided to buck the trend in writing. The market turned. The up wave DID exceed my expectations. I was incorrect. Powell completely relented, and here we are. I wrote about that, as well.
I was looking for five-waves down. We got three waves down with a 1.27x Fibonacci extension and not a 1.618. So, the only "five waves down" would be diagonals that could not be ruled out until the 90% level. At the bottom, marc and I were counting the days and deciding on a "degree" turn.
In March - nearly a month ago, I published this post.
http://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2019/03/the-same-three-waves-down.html
It shows a few of the types of what fourth waves can form from "three waves down". There are many more.
You can make a big 'dilemma' about this. If we are in a larger degree fourth wave it can 'also' start with three waves down, as above. You can and should hold me accountable for as much of my work as you like. Just don't take it out of context. I never "stopped" counting upward for sure. I had proposals, they did not play out. I was only referring to the "smaller degree" fourth intermediate wave (4) as likely being impossible from a degree stand point. I stand by that comment.
Yet everyone else has jumped on that band-wagon.
TJ
Sorry, the first link is bad, this is the corrected link.
Deletehttp://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2018/12/potential-short-term-pop.html
TJ
so if the triangle in 2018 was a 4. then the october top in 2018 was the tip of a third wave. so either that was three waves up from 2009 or 1982/1974. but i dont recall hearing or seeing anything on this site which affirms the former. so either the 5 waves up from 2009 is now 3 waves up or if any of 2000/2008 was a 4th wave this is higher degree. joe can you comment
DeleteThe five waves up from 2009 remains five-waves up. More later .. not now. I will comment more when appropriate.
Deletethanks
Deletemuch hanks and respect
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteIf you were replying to the Crude Oil post, you should hit the Reply button instead of creating a new comment - especially since you don't bother to put the symbol you are referring to in your comment.
DeleteHas there been a post showing the breakdown of wave C of (Y) for the SPX?
ReplyDeleteThx
Please see the second chart in the his post for the Nasdaq 100. I will look at the S&P500 shortly.
Deletehttps://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2019/04/a-very-simple-situation.html
Thanks,
TJ
Would rather see posts focusing on spx. As that is the one that has everyone's retirement money. Thank you for your charts Joe.
ReplyDeleteNoted.
DeleteA new post has been started for Sunday.
ReplyDelete