Thursday, April 4, 2019

ES has Inside Day with Upward Bias

The chart below of the ES E-Mini S&P500 Index futures shows several things. First, it shows today was an inside day, that closed higher. So price still has a positive bias - both for the higher close and for still being above the 18-day SMA (not shown).

ES E-Mini S&P500 Index Futures - Daily - Potential Diagonal

By contrast the Nasdaq 100 (NQ) futures closed lower and overlapped their prior up wave in the downward direction.

But, the potential (stress potential) pattern above can help us define several key parameters. First, the third wave of a potential diagonal would invalidate upward above a price of 2,932 - as it would then be longer than wave i at that time. In addition wave i took most of ten days (10 days) to form. That should mean that wave iii - which is at seven days - should take less than 10 days to form. We're not there yet. (Bear in mind that counting the time component on a daily chart is complicated by the partial bars, and by a potential slight truncation).

None-the-less, we should be learning a lot about this wave by next week at the latest. Also, please remember that should this wave turn out to be an ending diagonal, then wave v is not required to make a new high above wave iii. It can, but it does not have to. It can truncate.

Tomorrow is the payroll employment report, so my usual policy of not deciding too much in terms of wave counts until that is in the market will be followed.

Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe

15 comments:

  1. Every time I open the /es chart a nice EED is staring at me. It is not as EWO friendly as ET's count but all the measurements are there. Do not like the open ended nature of them for stop placement, so I am using the host words of wisdom of not being point man on the prairie.

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  2. Think that is 2 of c in gold, not sure 2 of impulse or ed. That last move higher yesterday looks like a triangle in the middle.

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  3. This is all I see at the moment in the S&P500 cash 15-minutes.

    https://invst.ly/ah0m6

    TJ

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  4. Thanks!
    Maybe the 3 legs up will be a lower degree diagonal on DJI

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  5. hi Joe
    I do not know where we are from a graphic point of view. soon we will beat the reccord 2940?
    it is difficult to know where we are going
    you can do this weekend a clear assessment of the situation
    thank you joe

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    Replies
    1. I have provided that in the above chart; including the invalidation level.

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  6. Things are looking reasonable.

    https://invst.ly/ah2w6

    TJ

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  7. Can only say there was a higher high, after a long, protracted fourth wave and on a divergence on the intraday chart.

    https://invst.ly/ah3t4

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. However, the would be nothing wrong with v = i, so watch it closely.

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    2. Riding low in the ES 30 min channel.

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  8. While watching Ira Epstein's daily financial video, he touched on a possible daily inverse head and shoulder pattern that trader's are watching, beginning from the highs of last Sept/Oct. I wondered if anybody else saw the possibility of a larger head and shoulder pattern on the weekly charts going back to early 2018 with the possible formation of a left shoulder. $NDX and COMPQ are making substantially higher right shoulders than left shoulders. If the larger h & s formation is valid, it could be confirming ET's "Updated Roadmap" of 2/17/19.

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  9. possible double top in weekly and then bear market?
    what do you think about it?

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