Yesterday's marginal new high in the S&P500 cash index, and the ES futures was accompanied by yet a further divergence with the Elliott Wave oscillator. From both a price and time perspective, the third wave advance was as close to being max'ed to the limit and still allow the possibility of a diagonal shape. Here is the updated chart of the ES E-Mini S&P500 Futures on the 4-Hr time scale.
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| ES E-Mini S&P500 Futures - 4 Hr - Potential Diagonal |
Yesterday, we said that wave (iii) was 78.6% the length of wave (i), which is about the maximum allowed that can still generate "the right look" for a diagonal wave. And, in this configuration, it is just shorter in time, as well. Today's down move was technically an "outside day down", and one which can qualify as a key reversal day, as well.
The down move was slow and grinding all day with fairly minor point loss - and therefore - it still seems like a fourth wave in progress. The Elliott Wave Oscillator on this time scale has already reached the location where it can qualify for a fourth wave, but for a true diagonal one would like to see the overlap with wave (i). The tentative lower trend line will be adjusted as warranted once it is clear where the fourth wave is located.
If and / or when a fifth wave occurs upward, the fourth wave should have a shallower EWO reading than the second wave, and the fifth wave's EWO should diverge from that of wave (iii), just like wave (iii) diverged from wave (i)'s EWO reading.
On a note of caution: as of the futures settlement the ES daily slow stochastic is still technically embedded, and price still has a positive bias as it is above the 18-day SMA. If a fourth wave is made lower, it could be quite "bumpy" given those technical parameters. And, it would be expected that the fourth wave might consume less time than the second wave - but this is not an absolute requirement - just a guideline.
Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
Finally reviewed Neely's audio interview where he spoke about price / time relationships. Most of which I had already picked up here.
ReplyDeleteFrom what I can tell, it was recorded in 2013ish. So some of this could have changed Other interesting tidbits:
1) Market is in correction since 2000 high
2) EWT good at market tops and bottoms but not as good during at middle of wave
3) He seemed to be pairing 2008/09 bottom with 1929. Implying perhaps 2000-2009 was supercycle 4 and there was a lot of upside left to go.
No comment necessary, just interesting
1 & 3 are contradictory if supercycle 4 was the last correction to 2009.
DeleteThis shows Neely's current long term count and his method for reaching that count. Published Nov2018. I found it useful for clarification.
Deletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EyjITpcizbM
Please note, if you are new to this site, Joe does NOT employ the full Neely method. He applies aspects of it.
I see, thx. He is charting it as a neutral triangle since 2000 with the market trying to find the D wave top
DeleteThat is an extremely bullish long term forecast
Deletejoe
ReplyDeletetake a look at ndx
possible ED
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ReplyDelete5 of C of 2 on Gold?
ReplyDeleteWas the case. Waiting for overlap of 1298.7.
Deletedamn near perfect 61.8 retrace in a flat.
Deleteoverlap confirmed
DeleteCan someone tell me what the structure is from the 4/9 low in SPX? I'm looking at a 5 minute chart. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteDon't know yet; the whole structure could be a FLAT from 4/9, and the 4/10 part could be an 'incomplete' diagonal C wave, but must remain under the high.
DeleteKeep an eye on this S&P500 Hourly three-touch (plus) trend line.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/aiqia
TJ
how bullish if it holds?
DeleteBasis the SPX500USD, I have an alternate count where 4/9 low was w5 of c of abc flat. Flat is wave iv of larger (iii).
ReplyDeleteThat three-touch one-hour trend line, above, is breaking and back-testing.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/ais03
DeleteTJ
Joe, Thanks for continuing to post even with the market and this blog getting very quiet.
DeleteLooks to me like SPX is completing a wave (iv) triangle here. The wave up from ((b)) spx 1722 is probably a regular impulse. IMHO.
Joe,
DeleteYes I want to Echo Tom...thanks for all of these posts I am learning a lot with all of your attached counts and analysis.
Tim
The recent blog activity here might serve as a proxy for current market sentiment with exhaustion of buyers and sellers already under water or looking to enter positions. Might be the best time to pull the rug out
ReplyDeletei think its exhaustion of sellers around these parts
ReplyDeleteHere is a table showing a bullish count from 2722.27 low. Excuse the bad labeling. Its neat to see the lengths of the waves and their retracements. There is very good symmetry so far between the lengths of waves 2 and 4 and the size of waves 3 vs 1. So if things continue to play out, the expected drop from the high would be about 40 points to match ii of 3 to end iv of 3.
ReplyDeleteLength Retrace or multiple
0 2722.27
1 (or 2860.31) 2852.42 138.04
2 2785.02 -67.40 -48.83%
i of 3 2829.87 44.85
ii of 3 2787.72 -42.15
(i) of iii of 3 2819.71 31.99
(ii) of iii of 3 2798.77 -20.94 -65.46%
(iii) of iii of 3 2885.25 86.48 2.70 x (i)
(iv) of iii of 3 2865.17 -20.08
(i) of (v) of iii of 3 2881.28 16.11
(ii)(v) 2867.14 -14.14
(iii)(v) 2893.24 26.10 1.62 x (i)
(iv)(v) 2880.78 -12.46
(v) of iii of 3 2995.95 15.17 (v)=30.78 iii=108.23
I lost my tabs :(
Deleteit would help if u could post a chart
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteJoe would you now share an accceptable count from 2009 that did not conclude as 5 waves in october 2018?
ReplyDeleteSee next day's post.
Deletebank stocks have fully recovered. I am wrong again. :(
ReplyDeleteBasis SPX500USD alternate count, I have us in wave v of (iii). If no extended waves within wave v, looking at target area around the 2927 area (+/-).
ReplyDeleteIMHO I think that last spike down in gold to 1293.7 was the 5 of i of 3 of C.
ReplyDelete