Below is the hourly chart of the cash S&P500 Index. By measurement, you can see with about 140 candles on the chart, the Elliott Wave Oscillator has now crossed down below the zero line and is likely indicating the fourth wave sequence, (iv), of the minute ((c)) wave. If you are new to this blog the 'double parentheses' in text are to be read as circle-c in the upper right of the chart below.
 |
| S&P500 Cash Index - Hourly - Looking for Final Sequence |
Because every fourth wave at every degree of trend poses it's own set of challenges - which I have termed 'The Fourth Wave Conundrum', the question now becomes whether this fourth wave, (iv), will end as a 'running triangle' or as an 'expanded flat'. Today's waves downward ended at the 78.6% level of the b:3 wave upward, bolstering the case for the triangle.
If a triangle forms, it would be making the case that "the last wave sequence is dead ahead". But the triangle must form properly in every detail. In this case, the d:3 wave would likely be limited also to a 78.6% wave upward on the c:3 wave downward, and then the e:3 wave must cross down over wave (iii) to be corrective to it as a fourth wave.
The alternative is that the entire downward wave from b:3 is really an ending expanding diagonal in construction, but then a fifth wave down is needed to end the sequence as a 3-3-5 expanded flat wave. This would allow a deeper wave (iv), and better challenge the lower boundary of the Elliott parallel channel from wave (ii). I have no preference as to which occurs as long as the rules are followed. That includes that wave (iv) must not overlap wave (i), up, in the downward direction.
Further, if the b:3 wave is exceeded in the upward direction then we may have to again consider an ending diagonal.
This is just the nature of The Fourth Wave Conundrum, and it is why patience and flexibility are required to avoid getting turned around as best as possible. This is the true nature of alternates which the analyst must learn to appreciate and grapple with.
Have a good start to your evening,
TraderJoe
Thank you, Joe!
ReplyDeleteso is the other conundrum that there is still more to the upside? if so will it break 2820?
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/8NyYlnc
ReplyDeleteET, if last week's low is taken out 2764.55 wouldn't that be a reversal bar? I'd almost think price us working it's way to the 13 ema.
ReplyDelete13 day ema, I referred to a weekly bar so to be clear price slowly moving toward 13 day ema.
Deletedeja vu in reverse
ReplyDeleteperhaps
dec 24 everyone counting 3 down waiting for fifth wh8ch never materialized
or
not near a top
this is biggest most analyzed wave in years it wont top with one more wave
Marc .. your prose or ee cummings style poetry is very difficult to decipher. Could you please use complete sentences, capitalization, and punctuation? Thanks in advance.
DeleteAlso, it would help if you did not use extreme terms like 'everyone' or 'won't' as they are red-flags for me that someone might not be thinking clearly. I'm just letting you know how I read things.
TJ.
Yes i will write in proper English going forward. Everyone means vast majority in the ee commings prose above. Wont means low probability in the aforementioned prose. Is haiku an acceptable form of communication? thanks joe
DeleteA koan would be much preferred. Lol.
DeleteMS - I understood the intent of what you were communicating. If only Elliott Wave structure had the same level of prec8s8on as your sentence structure we would all know what comes next. We are human not AI.
DeleteAn equal move off the 3am es low would get you a .786 of c for d.
ReplyDeleteA reminder that today is the last trading day of the month - which often sees 'sloppiness' which is sometimes termed 'window-dressing'. Then, tomorrow is the the first trading day of the new month which 'often', not always, sees inflows from 401k's, mutual funds, pension funds, company bonuses, dividend reinvestment and other sources. However, according to the Briefing.com Economic Calendar, tomorrow is not a payroll employment report day.
ReplyDelete9:47a
DeleteChicago PMI in February 64.7 vs. 56.7
ES 5min Leading ED?
ReplyDeleteCash now has a 38% retracement on yesterday's upward wave - which was called to the very bar. That is 'sufficient' for a b wave downward, but it is still very short in time, and could extend in time or price.
ReplyDeleteKeep one eye peeled on the Russell 2000 futures. They are much weaker than the ES at the moment with a 78.6% retrace, and a loss of the embedded slow stochastic at this point in the morning (such would have to hold for the remainder of the day).
DeleteRUT have an impulse pattern from Monday peak to Wednesday low?
DeleteTrying to not do my usual rushing of things. I would think that we would get to the lower 4hr channel line.
ReplyDeleteSPX cash may now be considered to have an expanding diagonal downward or it's equivalent of a triple zigzag in an expanding pattern downward.
ReplyDeleteDoes not look like SPX 1, 2, i, ii down is and option due to size of ii.
ReplyDeletegonna let this clear up see ya at the close. GL all.
ReplyDeleteHere is just one possibility. There is another triangle possibility with the upper dotted line. Depends how you interpret yesterday's up wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/a5s63
TJ
There's lots of compression and whip in the futures. Could this be a smaller 'b' wave triangle. Some valid 30-minute fractals are also shown.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/a5sov
TJ
The upper (blue) fractal has just been exceeded higher!
DeleteWith the fractal break higher in the futures, a 'cash' count like this one on the 5-min chart would still meet degree labeling requirements.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/a5tdt
TJ
Downward wave from i now exceeds 38.2%, minimum for a second wave, but can still go lower if it wants.
DeleteET is this possible for a B wave triangle? Thanks.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/DhHWlNo
possible? yes? but less likely because A is a "three" and not a "five".
DeleteThank you.
Deletedumnonia on the 28th
ReplyDeleteand your fall does not happen
you are not credible
Come on dom...you cannot possibly be surprised by that! Cut dummonia a bit of slack will ya? Clearly all that bombast was done tongue in cheek...or am I wrong? 😜
Deleteyou are wrong...dumnonia-watchman openly posts on his blog and Twitter that God will cause things to happen to enrich him...he has been talking his super bearish book when he posts at this blog...if you read his blog or his Tweets you will see him for the wacko he is!
DeleteCash SP500 is now down to 62% of wave i, up, but must hold the lows or a different count is in order (larger b wave of triangle, or possible ending expanding diagonal c wave of a fourth wave flat). At 62% for a second wave, if an up wave occurs, it can be the extended wave in the sequence. But, again, the lows must hold.
ReplyDeleteMaybe still the E wave of the smaller triangle
ReplyDeleteExpanded diagonal down today was the a wave of E?
DeleteCould also be a triangle b wave, waiting for the c wave pop, yet.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/a5uz0
TJ
Triangle did not hold. Could still be a longer b wave in time.
Delete62% retrace on the a wave if it holds.
DeleteYes maybe larger triangle, your ”a” up is very hard to count anything else than an impulse, so probably not a whole D wave. What about a WXY finished yesterday at 2775?
Delete@Erik .. could be w-x-y down to 2775.
DeleteBy the futures settlement, the Russell 2000 futures had not regained their daily embedded slow stochastic reading - at the close 79.1; this should be watched in the overnight.
ReplyDeleteb ob b on smaller triangle within D of larger. Interesting to see in the morning.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/ee4ulPB
Small triangle out, probably c of D.
DeleteRight on time. Blue Cross is intersection of .786 and equal time as C.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/fOoeH2j
Hi TJ what’s your opinion regarding if a B of ((v)) in an ending diagonal is allowed to be bigger in time and price than ((iv))? I’m reffering to the current setup in NDX where B of ((v)) might be forming a triangle like S&P 500.
ReplyDeleteLooks a lot like thrust out of a finished triangle
ReplyDeleteYep! Classic!
ReplyDeletefinal goal of phase v? how far do we go before the fall?
ReplyDeleteThank you for your answers
ES futures now have the required overlap of wave (iii) at 2,798 to make a valid triangle. No hi-jinks. No drama. No broken rules - just a 'likely' wave (iv) triangle that many of us participated in calling in near real time.
ReplyDeleteCash must still overlap and the e wave must remain above the c wave.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/a64pw
TJ
Correction .. technically, since cash and futures are on different time frames, it is possible that the smaller triangle showed yesterday does fulfill the cash requirement to overlap the (iii) wave. So, cash 'may' still go on to overlap the wave (iii) again, but is 'not' required to.
DeleteIf cash does goes on to overlap wave (iii), it would make the triangle more proportional, so that outcome does have a significant likelihood.
Should also get on the other side of 34.
DeleteES futures and cash have now overlapped the prior 'a' wave, up, too.
DeleteEqual move down from here would close spx gap
ReplyDeleteI would think this e should be a clean looking 3 wave move.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/kxY3Qq6
ReplyDeleteJust something to have some fun with over the weekend. :o)
DeleteI guess people's minds work differently, but I see very little point to this post. It's not a wave assessment, it's a 'look what I've done, you figure it out'. More like a jigsaw puzzle with missing pieces.
Deleteym channel?
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/TgH90eL
DOW cash now has the desired overlap for the larger wave 'e'.
ReplyDeleteLooks like the all have cross of 34 for e.
ReplyDeleteYes, and S&P500 cash now has the cross of wave (iii). Equally important to stay above wave 'c' at this point.
DeleteI could make the case that ES has a LD down for a of e but dont believe YM could handle a c
ReplyDeleteGood Luck all, done for the day. Have a great weekend.
ReplyDeleteWell done ET and BBRider on the triangle. So far so good. A lot of boxes ticked. ES "e wave" retrace to finish the proposed triangle was 63% of "d wave". On the YM the same retrace was 86%. Much deeper however it allowed DOW cash to close yesterday's gap (today's low 25914.37 vs yesterday's close 25916.00). Although not a requirement of the triangle closing the gaps on both DOW and SPX now really leaves no "loose threads". ET should the triangle prove to be the correct assessment for this wave 4 do you have a potential target for the 5th wave that follows the triangle?
ReplyDeleteI believe the move to downside is not yet complete. I also think there is a probability > 20 % we are in a larger degree wave down.
ReplyDeleteAlternatively, if the move off high today was not part of a triangle, there is a very bearish count from the high.
DeleteThis this consolidation over the past hour or so down to 2799 is longer in time than the previous consolidation, I am treating it as a (iv) and (v) would then need to be limited to less than (iii) - approx 8 pts
ReplyDeleteill count it as a 2
Deletethe whole wave from the low of day is a 2 to be more precise.
DeleteOk, it if makes new high - then A of 2?
Deletepossibly. Until invalidated the count Joe is using is highest probability. I believe alternative needs to be watched closely right now.
DeleteAgree
DeleteI have five waves up from the 'e' wave low, at 2,804.25; max for the wave is about 2,808.
ReplyDeleteHere is the chart of 'five-waves-up' from the 'e' wave low.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/a67vw
TJ
Joe. Is it possible we are looking at a failed fifth within a failed fifth? Just curious as well if that's even possible.
ReplyDeleteIf you have to ask a question like that, it is among the lowest probability outcomes.
DeleteGood to know thanks.
DeleteHave a great weekend Joe. Seems we are getting more clarity.
For anyone interested in something a little different.
ReplyDeleteMany technicians believe that volume leads price. One indicator that has been around for decades which evaluates this belief is On Balance Volume or OBV.
I was playing around with OBV and noticed something interesting as it applies to the rise since 12-24. In the chart below if you look at OBV in terms of Ira Epstein's "Swing Line Study" using higher lows and higher highs to define a trend you will notice that on every pull back OBV made higher lows in unison with price, until yesterday. Yesterday price made a higher low but OBV made a lower low. Based on Ira's rules the uptrend was lost on the OBV chart and is now without trend. Worth noting is the fact that in this situation even if it goes higher to a new high it will still be without trend by virtue of a lower low and a higher high, but if a new low is made the volume trend will reverse to down. I point this out to bolster what EW is telling us. That a change in trend is possibly very near.
http://tos.mx/vldj1A
hi Joe
ReplyDeleteit goes up it goes up
can you put a daily chart from September 2018 to find out
I would like to know how you evaluate the graph since September 2018
Thank you joe
Fois week-end for france
As usual some charts and thoughts in this video that I find interesting
ReplyDeletehttps://www.ccmmarketmodel.com/short-takes/2019/3/1/are-stocks-facing-insurmountable-wall-of-resistance
A new post has been started for Saturday.
ReplyDelete