It should be noted that the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NQ futures did not truncate. That was the basis for saying that the S&P500 Cash Index (and the ES futures) did truncate.
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| S&P500 Cash Index - Current Road Map - Updated |
The 'b' wave of Minor 2 was a little shallower than we thought, but that's what 'b' waves do. They find almost every way to fool one. Of note, though, the 'b' wave was a triangle - and as we showed earlier, it is very hard to count the up trend as anything other than a three wave move without a violation of wave degrees. (See the prior post on Feb 4th for more detail on this topic.)
Have a good start to the day.
TraderJoe
right with you thanks
ReplyDeletewelcome.
DeleteJoe, so you don't think there will be at least one more push up to the 200DMA?
ReplyDeleteFive non-overlapping waves down with a 2.618 extension can be counted. Clear downward impulse.
ReplyDeleteDown leg bigger than B = degree change?
Delete3rd wave down in the DAX futures also passed the 1.618 extension coming in at 1.853 at the low to date. 2nd wave retrace was a very bearish red light registering only 32.88%.
ReplyDeleteSeems like 10 min chart is appropriate for this first wave down. Trying to get on the other side of 34 for the number 4?
ReplyDeleteSpx
DeleteWell if that was 5 down YM and ES are having trouble surpassing the 38.2% retrace on the way back up having managed 33% and 28% respectively. But that's a lot better than the DAX which has fallen over 3% and the best retrace thus far is only a 13% which suggests it may still be in the first impulse down. Here's what may be holding back Wall Street at the present time:
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/e14d2kN
SPX: double zigzag for 4th wave? Retrace so far is 36.5% The SPY has equal size zigzags 1.44 and 1.43 (if my math is right).
ReplyDeleteSee reply below.
DeleteNo. The DOW and the NQ made a higher high at the red F. That is likely the failure wave in the S&P500. Then wave 3 down is exactly 2.618 x wave 1 by the Fibonacci ruler. Further, the length of the gap compared to wave 1 means that the gap 'can not' be a sub-wave of a larger third wave. That would be a degree violation. Therefore, that wave down must be wave 3. See chart at the link.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/9-6fu
Then, wave 4 is short sharp to alternate with the long flat wave 2. And wave 5 is the extended wave in the sequence - longer than 3. But that is ok, as wave 3 is longer than 1.
The up wave at the end of the day, is larger in price points than either wave 2 or wave 4, and it is longer in time than wave 4. That 'most likely' means the degree has turned and we are currently in a larger degree second wave up. If that's not the case, then there is a degree violation.
If the up wave stays at ~38%, that might just mean that this first wave down is the extended wave in the sequence.
Hope this helps.
TJ
Thanks Joe!
Deletejoe i see you wont be fooled again by ext1
DeleteJoe,
ReplyDeleteis this a situation where the upward ((ii)) is required to take more time than the downward ((i)) which we are assuming has completed?
See 4:07 pm post.
DeleteHi Joe,
ReplyDeleteso is the bias tended towards down (CRASH) or up to ATH?
Regards
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DeleteThanks for the work Joe. It is outstanding and has increased my competence and confidence exponentially from where I started 3 years ago.
ReplyDeleteWelcome Scout.
DeleteThanks Joe for the update. Seems like that was a long long wait before we hit another Bear pockets!
ReplyDeleteCL below the "line in the sand" https://invst.ly/9-amr
ReplyDeleteSP500 has a legitimate 90% wave in the downward direction.
ReplyDeleteDOW has made a new low.
DeleteThis is all I see, so far.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/9-g2d
TJ
SPX has the new low, too. Even if it's a 'b' wave lower of a flat, it still has more bearish implications. But, there are other ways to count, too.
DeleteThe daily ES is no longer embedded; let's see if that holds for the day.
DeleteDoes 5 down today as a diagonal work?
ReplyDeleteNope. The measurements are incorrect. v would be longer than iii. Do you have the capability to make such measurements?
DeleteYes, thank you.
Delete5 down from yesterday:
Delete2706.17 - 2691.43 = 14.74 1
2697.94 - 2684.37 = 13.57 3
2694.46 - 2682.78 = 11.68 5
4 overlaps 1
Updated:
Delete5 down from yesterday:
2706.17 - 2691.43 = 14.74 1
2697.94 - 2684.37 = 13.57 3
2694.46 - 2681.83 = 12.63 5
4 overlaps 1
See post at 3:51 pm.
DeleteHi Joe,
ReplyDeleteso is the bias tended towards down (CRASH) or up to ATH?
Regards
Lower, but 'grinding' lower for a while. Not a crash yet.
DeleteOn ES it looks like a flat has completed with a contracting ED for C.
ReplyDeleteInterestingly the IBD (Investors Business Daily) top 21 stocks are holding up quite well. Six of these twenty-one leading stocks actually made new highs for the year today. That's usually a little sign of strength for the market.
ReplyDeleteAlong similar lines . . . VIX has just turned negative and the daily tick is hitting new recovery highs. All this suggests selling pressure is still moderate.
DeleteThat makes sense to me.
DeleteUseful data. Unlikely to have a big decline next week. But the week after next is a different story.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/QbN47qk
This is the only count I can find where all of 3 is above a line from 0 - 2, and it starts with a contracting leading diagonal. ES 5-min chart.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/9-jfe
TJ
It has wave 2 as a sharp, with less than a 38% retrace (23.6%, actually), and wave 4 as a Flat for alternation. Wave 5 just made a new high. So, 5 < 3, < 1.
DeleteAt the end of the day, wave 5 completed where indicated, as a higher degree wave i, broke the down channel slightly for a higher degree ii, then headed up higher over the channel for a higher degree iii. In the process, the minimum Flat objective - of getting over 2,707 was met. Can still travel higher without altering the pattern.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteET, In https://invst.ly/9-jfe i and iv are overlapping by 0.25 point. High of i is 2690.5 and low of iv is 2690.25. Are we ignoring the overlap here to call ((1)) as impulse ?
DeleteAs far as I can tell, the up wave (as a Flat) is now as long - or longer- in time, measured in hours, as the down wave when it is counted as a five-wave impulse. Those counting a diagonal, lower, can not say that at this time.
ReplyDeleteAt the end of the day, wave 5 completed where indicated, as a higher degree wave i, broke the down channel slightly for a higher degree ii, then headed up higher over the channel for a higher degree iii. In the process, the minimum Flat objective - of getting over 2,707 was met. Can still travel higher without altering the pattern.
DeleteAs of the futures settlement, the slow stochastic had still lost its embedded reading. Need to check back after the last half-hour.
DeleteThanks ET. Best in the business.
DeleteOne final comment from me to conclude a most interesting week. At the close the DAX has retraced 18% of its decline whilst the DOW is already at 40%. That is why I noted on my DAX chart that "it is very possible Wall Street will make new highs next week whilst the DAX is correcting upwards". Nice and safe weekend to all.
Thanks for the comment and the perspective on the DAX, Billy.
DeleteYou are welcome ET.
DeleteMay I ask where the videos are posted? if any.
ReplyDelete