When applied to the ES 2-hr futures, The Eight Fold Path Method suggests we are nearing a conclusion to an impulse wave. See chart below.
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| ES E-Mini S&P500 Futures - 2 Hr - The Eight Fold Path Method |
After having dipped slightly below the zero line (at the black circle) for a likely fourth wave, there now appears to be a divergent wave up within the correct number of candles. Again, this does not mean the wave 'is' over. It just means the likelihood of a wave being over is getting increasingly high.
Again, because of the nature of the advance - and the degrees of the various waves involved - we still think this is the minute ((c)) wave up from the January low which was the minute ((b)) wave. For those who have read and studied The Eight Fold Path Method it should be very clear there is no "higher high" peak in the center of the Elliott Wave Oscillator which is likely the clue that this impulse is an impulse in a corrective wave, and not an impulse in a larger impulse.
As always, time will tell. Have a good start to the week.
TraderJoe
Thanks Joe, appreciate your analysis. You too have a good week ahead.
ReplyDeleteWelcome, migration.
DeleteIn regards to yesterday's discussion on technicals versus Elliott Wave, they go hand-in-hand. But that is not the whole story. Instead of a "two-legged stool", it is a "three-legged stool", and I am waiting for one more signal to fire. It hasn't happened yet. So patience is still needed in my view.
ReplyDeleteAnd you won't say what that last signal is? I promise not to interpret it as trading advice!
DeleteJoe,
ReplyDeleteJust trying to understand your comment about this being an impulse in an impulse of a corrective wave and not an impulse in a larger impulse. The large EWO peak on the 13th should confirm the wave 3 with the divergence of the second 17th peak. Now we should be nearing the 5th wave peak for the EWO. Are you saying that if the 5th wave peak shows divergence from the one on the 13th it is considered an impulse in a corrective wave? I am trying to figure out how to determine that this is an impulse of corrective nature vs a larger impulse.
Tjchuck .. look at the 4-hr ES below. a) There is 'never' a higher 3rd wave bump on the Elliott Wave Oscillator, b) the third wave never breaks the 'base channel' to the upside to show typical third wave momentum, and c) a new channel as shown would be an impulse in a correction as it is already 'turning to the right' rather than arc-ing up to left as third waves customarily do. Let me know that you understand this now, or it will be very difficult for you to understand any of my comments on here.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/a4o0l
TJ
Perfect thank you for clarifying. Thanks for teaching and spending the time to write.
DeleteDid I read correctly you consider this minute ((B)) rather than ((2))?
ReplyDeleteI think Joe meant that "January low" was minute ((b))
Delete@John - yes, that is correct.
DeleteReally fascinating watching index candles. Yet another doji at top of trend in SPX.
ReplyDeleteWill we see it morph into another fat green candle, par for the course of late?
Thanks for the clarification.
ReplyDeleteKeep an eye on the NQ 4-hr futures; there is an outside range bar, down, so far, and the possibility of this count.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/a4luh
TJ
It is back-testing the upper wedge line at this time.
DeleteThe initial wave down has to breach 2757.81 to signal an initial unwind, imho. If that does not happen I am fairly confident we will see yet another bear trap.
ReplyDeleteI think we we at least tag 2820 prior to a turn...
If RUT is an indication than I agree.
DeleteES 1min has two waves off the top with 1.618 extension.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/a/SsEePSq
DeleteSure is clean.
Thanks Joe. I'm going with the need for a 5th of a 5th yet.
DeleteS&P Cash and ES futures now qualify for 'five-waves-down'. It is 'very slow' at the moment and may only be the 'c' wave of a fourth wave. But, it is a warning sign - none-the-less.
DeleteLooks like another ED look-alike.
ReplyDeleteWe should know soon.
It's over now. It double-topped (ES) at 2814. If you have been following my dreams and visions and my trade positions at my blog, you'll grasp why that level is a nice one.
ReplyDeleteWe should now see two nights and just one day to get back to re-test the December lows (at a minimum) and we will possibly see ES 1944 by the open on 27th February.
I may be wrong, but that was definitely the top at ES 2814.
You may be correct sir!
DeleteThe circuit breakers make it mathematically impossible for SPX to reach 1944 by the open of the 27th.
Deletedumnonia you are always wrong until now
Delete@dumnonia-watchman; this statement of your appears to be both self-serving, and irresponsible. I will be watching your comments for further such irrationality, and if I detect such your account will be set to 'spam'.
Delete@mblcta, yes, an interesting point. I think the circuit breaker kicks in at 7% if I recall correctly. I wonder what would happen if it opened with a larger gap down though? They can't march it back up to their circuit-breaker level. I do think these circuit breakers will make things worse in a crashy scenario.
Delete@TJ, I am just giving my opinion, like everyone else. It's sad that you would seek to censor someone's opinion. It's not irresponsible, and my blog serves God, not myself. I share my views and experiences put of love for my internet 'neighbours' as do you, so please reconsider your threat. We're all adults, I expect most will dismiss my thoughts as near-madness, but time will prove all things. We both have the same aim, yours is focussed on EW, mine on my recent spiritual experiences and their impact on my market views. Let's not fall out over this please.
"@dumnonia-watchman; this statement of your appears to be both self-serving, and irresponsible"...please note that he repeatedly references his blog and directs others to read his blog...I have scanned his blog and monitored his tweets...he obviously has an agenda and holds opinions that have no bearing on what is presented at this blog...in my view, down right scary!
Delete>.please note that he repeatedly references his blog and directs others to read his blog...I have scanned his blog and monitored his tweets...he obviously has an agenda and holds opinions that have no bearing on what is presented at this blog...in my view, down right scary!
DeleteWe all have views. Why would you seek to deny me mine. Oh, but you answer the question yourself: 'downright scary'.
I am sorry that you live in fear, that talk of God scares you. I do mention my blog occasionally, and the recent posts there do very much allude to the markets. Unlike this comment of yours, where you just pop up out of nowhere again to attack someone. I do hope and pray you will learn to love fellow internet contributors, rather than just pen ad-hominem attacks.
When did we EVER see you offer a view or something of any value here whatsoever? Never is the answer.
dumnonia, based on your comments and questions, it's obvious that you don't trade the markets, because you don't know what the limits are, and you don't know how limits work. (it's impossible for a market to gap open beyond the first limit. That's why it's called a limit.) Best of luck.
Delete"We all have views. Why would you seek to deny me mine" - no one is denying you your views...the question is simple...what are you doing on this blog?
Delete"I am sorry that you live in fear, that talk of God scares you" - that is simply laughable...you who think God is looking out for your personal stock market positions and will cause things to happen to enrich you...God isn't scary...whacko's like you are!
"When did we EVER see you offer a view or something of any value here whatsoever?" - I am here to observe and better understand EW. You on the other hand contribute nothing of value to this blog...you have an agenda and hold opinions that have no bearing on what is presented at this blog!
>no one is denying you your views...the question is simple...what are you doing on this blog?
DeleteIt's such a simple question indeed. The question I have is why are you bothered? Just skip my comments if you like.
>you who think God is looking out for your personal stock market positions and will cause things to happen to enrich you...God isn't scary...whacko's like you are!
Whackos is a plural, it requires no apostrophe. I've stated my beliefs based on all that has happened to me these past months, your view on my beliefs is (frankly) totally irrelevant to this blog, why are you so bothered that you have to attack me?
>"When did we EVER see you offer a view or something of any value here whatsoever?" - I am here to observe and better understand EW. You on the other hand contribute nothing of value to this blog...you have an agenda and hold opinions that have no bearing on what is presented at this blog!
Yes, we all know you are a leech, offering nothing. Unlike me, I have shared charts and my views. Begone.
@dumnonia-watchman..."Begone"...where do you get off telling others what to do who post on this blog...your opinion of yourself is not consistent with reality!
DeleteI know who you are (yet again).
DeleteIt's boring, you're boring, you can keep writing all you like, I'll ignore you from now on.
The Word will prevail, you loser.
@dumnonia-watchman...only a loser like you could believe God will cause things to happen to enrich you...for the others who may be curious below is a link to his Tweets...believe you will see him for the wacko he is!
Deletehttps://twitter.com/I_dont_know_but/with_replies
I appreciate the posting of that link, I welcome more followers.
DeleteThe more you flail at me, the more you lose, loser. You know that feeling oh so well don't you, makes you mad eh? Get used to it, it's all you ever have to look forward to, perpetual losing.
I on the other hand, win for eternity. Praise the Lord.
"I'm very relaxed, what will be will be. As my £100k vix calls expire worthless at the open"
Delete~ dumnonia-watchman (loser) | February 27, 2019
I'm flattered by your attention.
DeleteAs luck would have it, a strong sterling meant I only lost £97k.
I added another vix call position, and expect God to deliver me some handsome gains (for His purposes) over the next two weeks.
As for losers, heh, gas-lighting is the style of your boss, the universe's perpetual loser, isn't it?
So far RUT still looks bullish could be due to fed easing interest rate hikes. As long as price stays above 1547 then I'll remain neutral. If price closes below 1547 on a weekly and monthly basis I would interpret that as a possible trend change.
ReplyDeleteSPX doesn't appear as bullish as RUT as I would have expected price to break 2815. Monthly RSI hasn't broken 60 yet. If you look back to November you'll see RSI was at 62 and SPX closed at 2760.17. If we close above November price with RSI below that would be negative.
Gold looks like the trend has changed. 4hr RSI broke below the 40 level which could signal a weakening trend. Support at 1270.
RSI below 40 can signal trend change from bullish to bearish. So far US markets have held above 40 on a monthly chart. If price patterns stay weak and RSI doesn't move above 60 I'll view that as trend changing.
I didn't post my RSI monthly math because the month isn't over. I did want to add based on early projections of any reversal SPX should remain inside the bollanger bands and the Bill Williams balance line. Ball park 2450 to 2500 should provide support.
DeletePowell speaks the next two days at 10ET just to throw some ugly bars in the mix. :(
ReplyDeleteSomewhere right now, he is sitting with a legal pad and tarot cards.
DeleteET, Is your 3rd leg a squat bar?
ReplyDeleteThis would be the alternation count. The only thing I am leery of is the shorter wave ((3)). But, it is possible, and there is no overlap to prove another case.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/a4mup
TJ
Looks like clean 5's to b:3 on ym es and spx.
DeleteBecause of the 1:1 relationship, if this thing breaks down out of the channel and overlaps, it is very possible an ending diagonal could form so that would be the best alternate at this point.
Delete@BBR I checked a 1 min, and there is no 1.618 inside of it either.
DeleteI am afraid we are not quite not done. That wave down is NOT the way EDs conclude so we probably have one more leg up. We are not going to be wondering about the turn when it does arrive.
Deleteanother low coming
DeleteAgree ET, and /NQ never made a new low on the last push down. Still playing kissy face with that upper TL.
DeleteThere is now a lower low. Have to be on overlap watch. Otherwise it was a longer fourth wave within c:5 down on the five-minute, and this was the fifth of c:5.
ReplyDeleteTJ did we get an ending diagonal on crude oil futures??
ReplyDeleteOne thing I learned from TJ is that not only is distance traveled important in confirming EDs, TIME is as well. So far so good it seems to me....
DeleteAgree
DeleteWave "1" seems to be assesed after this post
ReplyDeletehttp://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2019/02/updated-roadmap.html
This retracement we are looking at, could simply be an "a" wave of a retracement imho. The tail of the 1st wave down could be longer..
Please see the comment from TJChuck, and my response to him @4:37 pm.
DeleteTJ
If we get an extended fifth down that checks all the boxes I will take it...
ReplyDeleteWe know need a decisive wave down that slams the door of that open gap firmly shut, or I will remain suspicious...
ReplyDeleteFyi downward overlap on Rut cash
ReplyDeleteindeed it is
DeleteMark once asked me how I knew CBs were buying. My thesis is that because of the low volume we have been seeing on the current ramp up, the ramp was likely accomplished by significant leveraged buying. Retail traders and even hedge funds are limited in how much leverage is permissible. I think even the largest hedge funds (black pool derivatives excepted) are limited to 300X. Banks are allowed much higher. The unwind of the kind of leverage they sometimes use simply cannot be disguised as a "managed decline". The latter almost always signal higher prices ahead...
ReplyDeleteYou are correct. I meant to say 3X or 300 times. 30X for banks is correct. They quietly abolished both Glass-Steigel and the limit on leverage.
DeleteRare ES gap higher penetrated but NOT decisively filled...interesting...
ReplyDeleteExact same thing occurred on 12/3, for the exact same reason as well. (Trump announcing extension/cancellation of China tariff deadline.
DeleteReversal right at .786 FIB level from Sept-Dec wave down.
ReplyDeleteBy the futures settlement, neither cash nor futures had overlapped downward by the very narrowest of margins.
ReplyDeleteI really have to finagle to get a completed count in the ES since 2764.25
ReplyDeleteA new post has been started for the next day.
ReplyDelete