From the standpoint of the divergence on the chart with the Fisher Transform, did today make things better or worse? There is now a higher high price, and, although the indicator histogram ticked up a bit, it is still much lower than either of the prior peaks. Is that better or worse?
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| S&P500 Cash Index - Daily - Higher High Price, Lower Osc |
Today was a spirited up day, which largely resulted from the potential agreement on the budget. Ok. So, now I guess every day we keep the government open, stock prices must go up. Makes sense (not).
In the final analysis, today made a marginally higher high, and it may not be over. See chart below.
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| ES E-Mini S&P500 Index Futures - 15 Minutes - Possible Triangle |
At the end of the day, all there appeared was narrow, overlapping price movement which may be a triangle signalling slightly more upside tomorrow. This depends on if the triangle holds in the after hours quotes. If the 2,738 level is broken lower overnight - below the bar where the black arrow is - then the triangle should come off the table, and a potential expanding diagonal lower might work. (Such a diagonal just hadn't formed properly by the settlement which put the triangle on the table).
Today, the Bollinger Bands are overhead at about the 2,758 level, and this may provide some upside resistance in the next sessions. As a result, some of us were discussing a possible ending contracting diagonal for the minute ((c)) wave.
If the whole minute ((c)) wave forms a diagonal, fine. If, instead, an impulse forms, then it is possible the Dow might break the all-time high, although it is questionable if the S&P500 would. Another alternate is that a Flat wave forms for a larger minute ((b)) wave down. At this time, I don't see anything not valid about a count like that.
We'll continue to take it step-by-step. As long as the daily ES price is over the 18-day SMA price has a positive bias, and the swing line should now be 'neutral' as there is a lower low and a higher high, which is not a trend. The daily slow stochastic is only back to being over-bought, as well, although I would confirm these tonight.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Hi TJ,
ReplyDeleteWhat percentage would you give that the S&P see lower lows this year? Or better yet, what percentage would you give a bear market now?
I just finally capitulated today to believing the market low is in.
I give the current odds about 25:75; new ATH : new Low. The RSI is still diverging from price. The put-call ratio today headed much lower, and if a diagonal ((c)) wave forms properly, I'll raise the odds to 15:85. The very purpose of a second wave is to convince everyone new highs are on the horizon.
DeleteDamn! That's some really impressive conviction.
DeleteDouble Damn! lol.
DeleteIf we can't break weekly close November 26th of 2760.12 odds go up. Weekly is showing negative divergence. Next fib 2754
DeleteHi Joe. Just my observation but the daily chart on S&P500 cash appear to be forming an inverse head and shoulder pattern with 2804 as the possible neckline. Once we reach the neckline it should then fall back to form the right shoulder somewhere around 2600. If my ‘fantasy’ comes true, then the IH&S target could be as high as 3262 (=2804+[2804-2346]). That is +18.8% above today’s close. This would then make 2019 = 1999 repeat with the ultimate bubble peak in 2020 = 2000 ?? Too much fantasy or does anyone agree with this idea?
ReplyDeleteSee above, for my reply.
DeleteThe ES futures did make the triangle in the later part of the session, and there has been a thrust out of the triangle, too.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/a0prg
TJ
i thought c had to take less tine than b in triangle?
DeleteSee Neely Fig 5-35 in the Dotted Box. The running triangle has c shorter in price, but longer in time. And, later text says in a running triangle c may be longer in time.
DeleteJoe-
ReplyDeleteAm I thinking correctly that a 2-4 trendline should not cut through any part of 5?
Thanks.
Not necessarily if five is a diagonal.
DeleteThanks. On your chart yesterday (CFD), where your (iv) of circle A is located, this would cause a break of the (ii)/(iv) TL for (v). Were you looking at circle A as a leading diagonal? Then a possible following circle C diagonal as well?
DeleteThanks
That thrust was THE top for this rally.
ReplyDeleteAsia has turned down sharply, Europe is turning too, USD up, US equities flagging already.
Big red day ahead. 87 crash will look like a brief dip compared to the carnage ahead into 27th.
hi dumnonia
ReplyDeleteyou are sure that the decline will be fast and important
when is the date?
Today.
DeleteI do not see a big drop for the moment
ReplyDeleteThis rally has been accompanied by global CB balance sheet expansion. Pay no attention to what the say, just look at what they do. Q.E. is back!
ReplyDeleteFurthermore, they are clearly using massive leverage, hence all those gaps higher.
People who believe multi-hundred point DJIA ramps we have been seeing recently is an any way "normal" must be most gullible indeed! Bullish sentiment my hiny!
It is LEVERAGED CB buying and evidence of great market weakness.
If you know what CBs are doing, you know where price is going, and they have SHOWED us what they are doing.
Leverage ultimately MUST, and WILL be unwound.
This is why I pay very close attention to what I refer to as "price pivots".
Be careful out there.
Nothing to do with the CBs Verne, just cycles. They will, as always, be powerless to prevent the market from clearing over the next 2 years.
DeleteSP500 Cash Index, coming up on 1.62 x (Feb 8 - Feb 11) wave at 2,762.
ReplyDelete0.618 is the divine ratio.
DeleteIt's been 49 trading days since the 3rd December highs.
72 calendar days.
ES hit 2814 dead on 3rd December.
If ES hits 2765 today, it'd be a 49 point difference.
7x7, it's the Biblical number for completion, perfection.
Watch it happen and rejoice that the Almighty is bursting the usury bubble.
amen
DeleteAmen indeed. Been sitting on TVIX since ES 2670 end of Jan. Thought I was being patient and got a good entry.
DeleteES hit 2762,perhaps that was it, it's all rolling over now, QQQ looks weak, vix popping.
DeleteTVIX is going to make some people rich.
DeleteToo bad it does not offer options.
Also a safer instrument since issued by Credit Suisse.
Before this all over, ETF issuers and even some Exchanges are going bust...!
Look for a CBOE "Failure to Deliver" to kick things off....
And what I have as previous lower trendline retest coinciding with upper bb.
ReplyDeletePotential exhaustion gap? Pop/drop day? Has that "look".
ReplyDeleteShould know soon.
Best of all, we are seeing signs of bearish capitulation everywhere, with chatter about inverse H&S bullish patterns and SPX 3000 targets. Ya gotta love it!!!
ReplyDeleteVix is not selling off today at all either Verne. Puts being bought I suspect.
DeleteNo surprise. You didn't think they would make it easy to establish bearish positions now didja?
DeleteOf course they smashed the initial earlier ramp.
UVXY will close that gap down...
Oops watchman. My mistake. I thought you said VIX WAS selling off.
DeleteThey did smash the initial bounce as you no doubt noticed....
Beautiful gravestone doji!
ReplyDeleteR.I.P. bullish dreams...!!!! 😊
Welcome back Verne
ReplyDeleteHiya bizy.
ReplyDeleteI pop in and out as the spirit moves...as long as ET permits...😊
Here's what it looked like at the top.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/AnodZK1
Nope, to avoid FURTHER degree violations, must be seen as an ((a)) wave up in it's entirety.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/a0-j1
Must now be seen as a five-wave-move. Previous (b) of ((b)) count would also have had degree violations.
TJ
Interesting. So, if A=C...
DeleteI think the diagonal must be off the table for now, because it's wave (i), which would have been a sub-wave of ((c)), was longer than minute ((b)) would have been in both price and time. Thus, the diagonal would also have created a degree violation.
Delete@ta, we have to see where ((b)) goes. It can be literally any length from 38 - 78%, most commonly.
DeleteRoughly calculating, wave (i) extended, causing waves (iii)-(v) to be .382 of (i). Would that usually not be around .618? I'm aware that wave Cs can fail around .382. This the same principle essentially?
DeleteThanks
But with the five wave move both (i) and (iii) of ((i)) would be bigger than all of ((iii))?
Deleteyes
Deletei mentioned we were in 5th wave yesterday 11:54 of entire move. i guess you like it better now than then. thaks joe
Is this ok because ((i)) is ext?
Delete@Erik B. Yes.
DeleteStill no big weakness in the leaders. Looks like we will be going up for at least a few more days at the minimum.
DeleteHi Dumnonia I do not see a drop today as you say
ReplyDeleteLook closer.
Deleteit's not a drop
ReplyDeleteif you say worse than 87 must have-5% minimum
You don't read well.
DeleteIt starts today, ends 27th February, see my blog for the back story.
This comment has been removed by the author.
Deletehow much is the percentage?
DeleteIt's all in the blog.
DeleteThe count I am working is an impulse from the Feb 8 low of 2682, and still requires a 4th wave flat or triangle and a 5th to finish.
ReplyDeleteYes Roy, it does not look finished. It could be though and that would be a nice way to fleece those who expect one more push.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/mUet0xK
You are absolutely right about that, Billy.
DeleteThat Billy is a smart one. He understands how the banksters think...! :)
DeleteOnce again, the DJIA made a secondary higher high today, where the S&P500 did not.
ReplyDeleteTony Caldaro, creator of OEW, has passed away. He was highly committed to his OEW website for many years and had a very large group of followers from all over the world. RIP brother.
ReplyDeleteOh wow. That is really sad.
DeleteYes. It is really sad. Very sad. Tony and I corresponded by email a few times. I had a lot of respect for him and his independence - though we often differed on the details of wave counting. He was also a raging heretic when it came to the wave counts of some of the professional services. And where we differed I was largely able to tell him directly. I am sorry to hear of his passing. His candor and singular viewpoints will be missed.
DeleteOn a smaller TF, if this is a possible w2, looks to be a flat, whereby "c" is exceeding "a". Iffy.
ReplyDeleteHave retraced .618 of this morning's drop. (so far).
DeletePoss H&S in slightly upsloping channel on CFD.
DeleteRoy, did you say "flat or triangle"?
ReplyDeleteyes
DeleteThere is downward overlap in cash after an up wave that did not measure 90% in the S&P500; I think the best the bulls can hope for is another triangle. Otherwise, this wave might be over depending on speed of further declines.
ReplyDeleteHere are the current three-wave movements that meet degree labels as best I can tell - to start a potential triangle, or the possible truncation. The market is not making this easy.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/a124u
TJ
That's what I saw as mentioned above. CFD looks like H&S, ready to break upsloping neckline. Shoulders/neckline within nice parallel channel. :o)
Deleteyw, Marc.
ReplyDeleteYes, thanks ET. Question: Is it possible your (A), (B), (C) (or i) down could be an (A) wave and now coming down for (C) of wave 4?
ReplyDeleteYou'd have to show me the five wave sequence you are concerned with.
DeleteA new post has been started for the next day.
ReplyDelete