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| ES E-Mini S&P500 Futures - 5 Hour - Momentum |
The chart helps explain with few words why my analysis is that we are in a corrective wave - as long as it takes.
Have a good evening,
TraderJoe
Monday, February 25, 2019
For the Beginning Elliott Analysts
Please review the chart below. Hopefully, because it is annotated it is self-explanatory. The issue is whether we are in an overall impulse wave. My question to you, is based on what you know about Elliott Wave theory, does momentum indicate that we are?
The chart helps explain with few words why my analysis is that we are in a corrective wave - as long as it takes.
Have a good evening,
TraderJoe
The chart helps explain with few words why my analysis is that we are in a corrective wave - as long as it takes.
Have a good evening,
TraderJoe
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Thanks,
ReplyDeleteRegarding your great ”common” post, today ndx had the change to prove its 1-2-i-ii alternate out of it’s contracting diagonal, instead it fell back and closed near low of the day inside the diagonal. So maybe we have ((5)) of diagonal as: 0=7002, (a)=7063, (b)=7008, (c)=7161 with (c) as a wedge shaped impulse.
Nice.
DeleteES Futures overlapped downward after the evening session open.
ReplyDeleteChina has opened up the Q.E floodgates!
ReplyDeleteCSI 100 up at astonishing 6.7% in futures (trade deal optimism?)
Will the FED follow suit?
ES has indeed filled its open gap from this morning but we have learned of late that that means very little so far as future price action is concerned.
A nice fat bullish engulfing candle in UVXY tomorrow and the reverse in SVXY would be signal. I would not be in the least bit surprised by one more vicious smack-down in vol in the a.m. Batten down the hatches!
It's not even open yet Verne. You're looking at yesterday.
DeleteQE dream on, it's just the pop before today's drop.
It's now the 26th here, by yesterday I mean 25th.
DeleteES gaps don't occur in the morning. They occur when ES opens, which is at 5PM Chicago time. There was a gap open last night (2/24) but that gap was filled a few hours later at 8:40PM (Chicago time.) It seems you are confusing ES with SPX.
Delete+6.7% on the S&P means new ATHs
DeleteFutures....
DeleteQuite right mbicta. The gap was opened at the start of trading in ESSunday evening Saying this morning, I mis-spoke.(that is when I saw it) The fact that the comment was made about after hours trading should have made what I was saying clear as I alo mentioned Chinese futures.
DeleteJoe,
ReplyDeleteThank so much for taking the time to chart out the question I had. A picture is worth a thousand words. Especially the no higher third wave peak!
Thanks
Tim
Round numbers being defended. Notice how price initially gapped past them in both futures and cash. Some of you will get whatI am sayig. Some may ignore it thinking I am confused and don't know the difference between cash and futures. I am done. Bye!
ReplyDeleteHere’s degree conversation from 5/2 regarding minute ((c)):
ReplyDeleteErik BFebruary 5, 2019 at 11:47 AM
TJ, this ((c)) should be bigger than (iii) because bigger degree? If so minimum price for ((c)) should be 2785? I´m measuring distance of (iii) from ((b)).
Erik BFebruary 5, 2019 at 11:53 AM
I mean ((c)) bigger than (i) which is at 2808
Elliott_TraderFebruary 5, 2019 at 11:57 AM
possible; this could only be minuet (i) of minute ((c))
Yesterdays gap up was the first time spx reached 2808. IF spx builds a top near 2808 and this count turns out to be correct this would be further proof that in a zigzag any subwave of A can’t be bigger than all of C.
ES had 3 near equal waves down, and not very impulsive internals in the middle one.
ReplyDeleteJoe, if a top was put in yesterday in SPX cash, how can a movement that is not a diagonal or part of a diagonal, end in a 3?
ReplyDeleteThanks
IF is the problem. Look to the longer hourly time-frame on the cash S&P500 index. The slow moves, lack of alternation, and the Elliott Wave Oscillator may be contradicting the IF.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/a4-tv
TJ
Joe, thanks so much. Your count is a great clarification to me.
DeleteI hade the same thought and that count fits perfect on XLY which contains Amazon and is heavy in spx but not into DJI, so with another (v) spx would probably do some catch up to DJI
DeleteWithout having an opinion as to whether the 3 wave move down from the Oct high was a full correction in and of itself or whether it was 1 down of a larger diagonal, the incongruity of the EWO on move up from 12-24 makes me want to question what the up move actually is. If the move up is going to end as a 3 wave affair then that would explain the unorthodox reading in the EWO and if that is what is happening I can accept it. I think it prudent though not to dismiss the impulse scenario just yet. It is entirely possible that the up move is an impulse in the making with an extended 3rd wave that has just not yet given a higher EWO reading.
ReplyDeleteThere were two parts to the post. a) the EWO, and b) channeling. Your response focused only on the EWO. What about the channel? Please review the chart at this link.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/a50pa
Wave three's "turn to the left", not to the right, and they break the base channel higher.
TJ
Same procedure on the down side as on the up side. Note the upward :3 is 1.382 to 1.500 - which would fit nice for a b:3 wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/a5160
TJ
ES hourly - bearish engulfing candle.
DeleteT.J. You are are the most patient man alive! :)
Delete$RUT new low of day.
ReplyDeleteWe haven't had a 1929 crash yet though Tim.
ReplyDeleteIt's topped though (for now), matters will become increasingly panic-like as we head towards Friday, and we have two weeks ahead that could get very nasty. Not sure if it's a crash, or a re-test of the December lows, but it's going to be fast.
Hi Joe,
ReplyDeleteStill following along and appreciate everything! This is by far my favorite market talk outlet. I had a question about EWO. Is it possible for wave 1 to have the peak in EWO instead of 3? When I look at futures on a 5 minute chart of the recent move lower yesterday I see wave 1 being the peak in EWO and then wave 5 looks to be the second most impulsive reading with wave 3 being the least impulsive is that allowed?
https://invst.ly/a53u5
Hi Robert. No, you are trying to use the technique "in a vacuum" and without relationship to the other waves. Wave four should be analyzed on the same time scale as the other waves - which is hourly for cash.
DeleteIt is also a bit risky to try the technique on only on a wave that splits a cash wave with the overnight futures. Your question almost always flags that you are analyzing on the incorrect time scale.
Nice Summary Tim.
ReplyDeleteIm thinking these may be running triangles up here.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/a/P95Qc4f
A flat or a triangle are among the many possibilities when considering the "Fourth Wave Conundrum" - hence my only markings of :3, :3 at this point.
DeleteFull count off the bottom.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/a/8srdZ89
Nice 3rd wave slope to this down leg today.
ReplyDeleteLooking at 15 min cash of SP: is the drop from the top impulsive:
ReplyDeleteClosing basis:
2813-2803 (i)
2803-2805 (ii)
2805-2794 (iii)
2794-2798 (iv)
2798-2791 (v)
Then:
2791-2802 (a)
2802-2795 (b)
2795-2803 (c)
Which leaves this morning's breakdown a 3rd wave.
Or is the pattern more corrective, thus the slide this morning part of a C wave of some kind?
Above 2770 probably the latter...
ReplyDeleteHere are some interim updates, as of 11 AM ET.
ReplyDelete1. There is not yet a 1.618 extension signifying a third wave on cash 5-min.
2. There IS a near perfect 78.6% retrace on the last hourly :3, upward.
The second item means there 'could' be a triangle forming for a fourth wave and we could have only another :3 in the downward direction.
TJ
https://imgur.com/EN9ngYA
ReplyDeleteThe triangle could go sideways to meet the channel. It doesn't have to go 'down' much.
DeleteOnly purpose of this chart is to show that the EWO on the cash hourly chart has indeed gone marginally below zero.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/a5ere
TJ
@Tim, the markets are not flat for the year presently, and this is merely a bear market rally, that is failing. Whether we crash now (like in 1929) or just re-test the December lows remains to be seen.
ReplyDeleteI think either will be sharp, given the stretch of this rally.
As for leaps, I prefer physical gold as a long-term holding.
There appears to be 'five-waves-up' from this morning's low with a 1.618 extension on a very short term chart (3 - 5 min).
ReplyDeleteConcur with you there ET. I'm just wondering if its a C wave as part of an irregular ABC after an expanded "spike down" B wave. With 4th waves got to expect/explore pretty much everything. Could possibly be 3 waves for the "spike down" early in the cash session. Hard to tell for sure.
ReplyDeleteHere's an example of what I'm thinking.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/21bzDb2
Your smaller degree b wave is larger than the larger degree A wave; not a legal construction. I do wish people would stop doing that.
DeleteBoth Cash and ES C wave was spot on .786. Nice to see the agreement.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/a/Qz9su0h
DeleteMissed that. Thanks for pointing that out ET.
ReplyDeleteA new post has been started for the next day.
ReplyDelete