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| S&P500 Cash Index - Hourly - Potential Ending Diagonal |
As a potential diagonal, such a count must prove itself by retracing below the minute ((b)) wave in less time than the diagonal took to build.
More later.
TraderJoe
Friday, February 15, 2019
Potential of An Ending Diagonal
I have showed this as a possibility before. But it counts much better today. As a diagonal, the upward structure is not definitively over, yet.
As a potential diagonal, such a count must prove itself by retracing below the minute ((b)) wave in less time than the diagonal took to build.
More later.
TraderJoe
As a potential diagonal, such a count must prove itself by retracing below the minute ((b)) wave in less time than the diagonal took to build.
More later.
TraderJoe
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You. Are. Awesome! I love your conviction, TJ!
ReplyDelete622 point move to the upside from the Dow Futures in 15 hours.
ReplyDeleteFreakish leverage...! :)
DeleteBINGO!!!
ReplyDeleteStrap In! :)
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ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteb of ((v)) as a barrier triangle? Fits on both futures and cash
Elliot wave appears untradeable as usual. I bought at close SPY 270 strike puts for March 29th Expiration. Target SPY 258 by then. Based on open interest
ReplyDeletemax pain and simple weekly technical analysis. Good Luck Elliot Wavers (is it now 7 waves up?)
Not trying to be insulting but if you trade Elliot wave, please show your entries bc it looks like 90% of the time you have a count an alternative and once one fails you have the other to fall back on. Show your entries and I bet 75% of the time you will get burnt
DeleteYou're doing a good job of being insulting, given you say you'e not trying. Why even bother reading or commenting if you don't like EW?
DeleteInteresting
Delete"...appears untradeable as usual": So you have experience trading EW? Might I ask, just how you have used it for trading and noted its failures based upon your implied experience? Seems to me that your statement regarding your purchase of puts would correlate closely with an EW trade, if in fact the Ending Diagonal works out.....huh...funny that. Yet you said it's untradeable. What you show is that you are pulling the cart before the horse and trying to call a top. What if you basic technical analysis doesn't work based upon open interest, "max pain" and simple weekly tech analysis? Am I to imply that basic technical analysis doesn't work? I guess so if I used your line of logic. And by the way, "7 waves up?" correlates well with the pattern Joe just posted.
Addressing your statement to post trades: Joe has made it VERY CLEAR, that is not what this site is for, nor has he expressed open permission for others to do the same. How do I know that you really purchased SPY puts? I can easily type that in the comments and then if the trade goes against me, simply say that I was "stop out for a small loss." Doesn't prove the trade now does it? How about posting an image of your trading ticket or account statement showing your transactions? That is hard evidence, unless of course you know how to alter images through software making it appear as if you had a winning transaction instead of a losing one. Microsoft Paint does wonders, as does Photoshop!
The entire purpose of EW is to help MANAGE RISK, that's why you have alternate counts. Your statements seem to imply that trading only involves taking a position on a single direction and waiting to see if you are correct. Most professional traders I have ever known or met are quick enough to know when to reverse their trades and/or close a losing position. They also know how to hedge. That is what EW is for. It wonderful for placing stops and determining profit targets (just like basic TA). It's also wonderful for helping one know WHEN TO STAY OUT of the markets.
I got a better idea: if YOU want to show off your trading expertise and awesome skills, how about creating a blog of your own, posting your live trades there and showing screen shots of the actual tickets as they are filled and executed? And then provide that service for free?
A great trader isn't one that makes 75% accurate trades. A great trader is one that understands risk management, knows he/she can be wrong most of the time but can still make bank when he/she is right only 25% of the time. So yeah....I'd say EW works pretty damn well.
It's an ending diagonal now? Maybe? I didn't trade an ending diagonal but what if I'm still right? What was it a couple of days ago when a wave 5 was called and that might have been the supposed top? Did anyone trade that here? If you did you got smoked. The point is that the count always changes... Where is anyones entries? The difference between a 5 wave sequence and a 7 wave sequence is drastic. If you are wrong you are screwed.
DeleteRegarding whether my trades are real or not is irrelevant bc I can still be wrong right? It can still go straight to SPY 2800 plus right? I might be wrong but at least I put it out there without using Elliot wave. I didn't post a trade days ago bc the risk reward wasn't there yet. It is there for me now and I'm willing to be wrong
I can give some BS that I have a short term call hedge for SPY 2800 so I have both sides covered and I can't be wrong but I didn't
Won't know it's a true Ending Diagonal until it confirms. Easy. Who cares what it was a couple of days ago? YOU? Define "smoked".
Delete"The point is the count always changes" - Wow! Whodda thunk such a thing? Point is - the markets always change too...gosh! Shocking.
Why are you so interested in every one's entries? What business is it of yours? Are you paying for a service? What gives you the right to tell people they can't use a system unless they openly post their trades? What's the purpose? To prove to you that it works? Or to give you something to laugh at and criticize if it's wrong?
Yeah, No kidding that the difference between a 5 wave sequence and 7 wave sequence (corrective potential) is dramatic - that's what STOPS are for. You seem to be implying that one who uses EW can't possibly use stops and has to let the trade take its course if it goes against them and must lose all their money in doing so. Look at what you wrote. Seriously. What makes you think someone gets "smoked" if it goes against them.
"Regarding whether my trades are real or not is irrelevant bc I can still be wrong right" - CLASSIC hypocrisy. You demand everyone post their trades but then tell me it's irrelevant for you to do so....yep.
" I put it out there without using Elliot wave." Who cares? Verne doesn't use JUST EW theory, and neither does Joe. You obviously haven't even read much of the blog because Joe and others post quite a bit of OTHER technical indicators to make an analysis. You seem to be implying that EW theory must ONLY BE TRADED PURELY without any other form of indicator. Avi Gilbert uses Fibonacci. Do you complain to him about not being a EW purest?
And it doesn't matter what you post for your position because we don't have any way of verified what you type has been executed. Besides, if you had read any of the posts you would see Joe has asked not to do this.
While I think we need to respect Joe's wishes and not post about specific trades, Adam has a legitimate point. One of the reasons so few EW analysts are credible is that they don't trade their counts so it costs them nothing to be wrong. You often can learn more by being wrong about a trade than by being right. While learning theory is important, it is pointless if you cannot successfully APPLY what you have learned. The only way to learn how to trade is...to TRADE!
DeleteIf every one had to actually trade their opinion, you would very quickly find out who was swimming naked...! :)
It's a good contrarian indicator. When 90% of the webs ellioticians are pointing to an impending downtrend its wise to stay in cash or go short. Maybe you aren't aware of Google being used as a sentiment indicator. Look into it.Elliot Wave theory was based and supposedly still based on human psychology. The powers that control the market and the algorithms they use, use that to their advantage now.
ReplyDeleteElliot wave falls in the same category as believing the news impacts price. It rarely does... Research that as well. Avi Gilbert is one of my favorite ellioticians. Not bc of his counts or his unfounded arrogance, but bc he knows news is unrelated to price movements.
I'm trying to be helpful not insulting. If you want to follow the squiggles go ahead but it seems no ellioticians can back up their counts with actual trades. Correct? It's very easy to have two or three counts and then when price follows one of those counts, you can claim you called it right after the fact. Insulting!? I don't think so... Factual yes.
Sorry, Adam but you contradict yourself on multiple fronts:
DeleteIf EW is such a good contrarian indicator, then you're admitting to using EW in some form in order to determine your trades. Maybe you aren't aware but EW is a good sentiment indicator, you should look into it. And guess what? The markets themselves are also based upon human psychology and the algorithms thAT are used are based upon that as well, thus providing further evidence of EW theory in action.
You claim that "Elliot wave falls in the same category as believing the news impacts price. It rarely does..." then note that Avi Gilbert as an Elliotician doesn't believe news impacts price. Guess what? Markets are forward looking instruments and many Ellioticians including EWForecast believes just as Avi Gilbert does.
You claim that "no ellioticians can back up their counts with actual trades" - Avi Gilbert PROVIDES a trading service that does that very thing and he offers a free trial as well. So does Elliott Wave Forecast and a few others, so that is an completely false statement. Insulting? I don't think so...Factual yes.
Yes I use it as a contrary indicator you got me. That's not a contradiction. I use it for the opposite means that most use it. Such as, I don't count squiggles. I just go against the consensus.
DeleteAvi has a great service where he always has two or three counts. Id be great if I had 3 calls to fall back on. Avi had a top at 2725 but hedged it could go a little higher that was after the 2680 low. He then said there could be one more push higher to 2750. We then got a pull-back and here we are above 2770.
Scratch the squiggles and move the goal line again. He will be right sooner or later and say market pinball is sooo acurate
Yes, it is a contradiction. You claimed one thing and then denied the other.
DeleteGlad that you use as a contrarian indicator! If it works for you - AWESOME.
Here is a little info that you might find interesting: Martin Armstrong uses a computer to "forecast" the markets. Guess what? His computer was calling for a panic cycle to happen in the last part of January which would result in either a retesting of the prior December lows, or new lows beneath that. It NEVER happened. In fact, much of his daily forecasts from the computer rely on the price action of the markets and his computer uses EW patterns as part of its 65K plus pattern recognitions. If it can be wrong at times, then I have no problem with EW being wrong more often.
EW Theory isn't about "being right" all the time. As I said, it's about Risk Management in knowing where the best place for stops, profit targets, or reverse trades. If you are looking for an 90% reliable system, then I suggest you talk with John Bollinger. He has some things to say about that.
Correction... My trades arent irrelevant rather if they are actual or not is irrelevant. I'm making a call that can be tracked and calculated unlike anything posted here. I can't track anyone's trades here yet when a count finally unfolds based on what they said, they tout themselves. Realistically though their prior 3 counts all failed. I made one call that is trackable
DeleteSeems to me you want to have your cake and eat it to. Your trades being actual IS relevant because you're the one claiming people on this blog need to post them so they can be tracked to prove the validity or reliability of EW. Pot calling the kettle black.
DeleteAgain, it comes down to the same logic I proposed earlier: If your "trackable" trade fails, then one should deduce that basic TA, contrarian indicators, "max pain" and whatever else you used to make your decisions, must not work either. I could also point out something you said earlier: that you have been reading the blog but not posting until now. Why is that? Should you not have posted your trades then, so as to challenge the Ellioticians who are here? Seems to me you should have.
As I've said before, Joe is the owner of this blog and he's made it clear: unless you are a licensed financial adviser, then you should not be posting trading advice on this site. Posting your trades can be construed as such, sorry to say, and I sure didn't see you post a legal disclaimer. If you have an issue with that, take it up with Joe.
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Delete@AdamWirth .. your confusion is with counting versus trading. You imply that a count implies a trade - which it 'definitely' does not. This is one of the reasons that I wrote this article on this blog over three years ago.
Deletehttp://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2015/11/paraphrase-of-ira-epsteins-rules-for.html
I regularly quote in my posts whether price is over the 18-day SMA or not. Not every day. Not every blog post. But I refer to it often enough that my regular readers know that I am referring to this information.
The purpose of a count is only to find a place where a terminus agrees with the Elliott Wave requirements. It is not necessarily an action point of any type. Period. Read the article at the link and you will see why.
Read it first. Ask me questions later.
I think we need to watch gold.
ReplyDeleteYes, I'm watching Gold. And if we are above GLD 124 around March 1st I will buy puts with an expiration in September. I've been watching closely for over a year
DeleteWe have a firm number for the ED invalidation. It cannot exceed the third wave.
ReplyDeleteMaximum upside target for ED to remain valid is 2807.95 by my rough calculation.
Upside momentum suggests we will indeed hit that round number target the next session or two. Are there any bears left? Lol!
This is what second waves do. They clear the market of short traders by firmly re-establishing bullish sentiment and convincing traders that the bullish trend has resumed. Mr. Market has done a very creditable job in accomplishing that end it would seem. The great thing about EW analysis is that there is always a number that tells you when you are wrong. I think the move up is corrective and expect it to be quite lonely on the short side at the next top! Thanks again to Joe for pointing out that potential ED. So far it checks all the boxes!
Have a great week-end everyone!
I would be very surprised if we see a single point more of upside Verne.
DeleteLook back to 3rd December in my charts above. We're done, and with the US markets closed Monday, it leaves the opportunity for a very very large 'recognition gap down, from which there will be no return (during this wave). Plus a full moon is just ahead, we need to get going before that to still fulfil Puetz criteria.
Thanks Verne
DeleteThanks Verne. I was wondering about the max 5th wave number
DeleteWelcoke!
DeleteYou could be right watchman. There a few reasons why I expect a tad more. First, the wave structure looks incomplete.
DeleteAlso,we don't yet have an "over-throw" for the potential ED.
Finally, the kind of downside move I am expecting generally begins with powerful reversal signs. I expect a huge outside revetsal day personally.
Having said that, the banksters have turned markets into one big Psy Op. We saw what the algos did to fib retacements. We have seen a litany of "head-fake" bearish signs like island reversals and dojis. It could be genuine signs of market weakness being overcome by stealth Q.E.So anything is possible
Steep bearish divergences persist at these new highs. I expect the spike above the 200 day to be short-lived.
Verne .. I completely agree there 'may' be more to the structure. The Elliott Wave rules allow such. I am really glad to see your level of familiarity with the pattern.
DeleteThanks ET. Learning a lot from you my friend...
DeleteDumnonia since you announced a big drop it keeps going up so I see you're not performing and next to the scenario
ReplyDeleteI would not dismiss the possibility of what watchman is saying. The lunar cycles are not always consistent but when the do correlate with market price it can be powerful.The long week-end was the perfect scenario for a bull trap as well. We will know when the turn arrives. I want ti see not only the lower ED wedge boundary breached, I want to see multiple "pivots" (gaps and prior support/resistance), including 2700, not jyst breached, but DEMOLISHED, on the FIRST wave down. It will signal a LEVERAGED unwind....
Deletehi joe we are forming the primary phase II?
ReplyDeleteMinor wave 2 should be nearing completion.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/qgyuPrf
ReplyDeletechalkin money flow says top could be close
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX/mJkSbrhK-Money-Flow-Shows-Significant-Market-Risk-Weekly-Preview2-18-19/
I thought this raised an interesting question.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/a9O66Ja
Is this a possibility?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/chart/JEHoYJNI/#
I (and many others) would appreciate if you applied your EW prowess on charts other than SPX. Have you given any thought to this?
ReplyDeleteA few folk I know are quite confident that we are on the cusp of a reversal. That may be right but so far I see no signs of it.
ReplyDeleteThe only Achilles' Heel of the banksters that I have found is their use of leverage.
They cannot mask, disguise, or otherwise camouflage their exit from leveraged positions.
Unless I see evidence of that I would be in essence trying to trade against folk with far deeper pockets that I - a fools's errand in my humble opinion....time to SOH...