Second Bold Prediction

I know my readers expect a lot more of me than just showing them when two moving averages cross. So I want to remind everyone that it was all the way back on July 1st, 2018 (at this LINK) when I posted that I could see the possibility of  a downward diagonal in Crude Oil, for the [C] wave to end the downward cycle.

The chart below updates you on the progress of that potential ending diagonal [C] wave.

Crude Oil Futures - Monthly -

From the above chart you can see that prices traded below the $50 level, and overlapped the Minor A wave upward. This rules out any upward impulse because if A were 1, instead, and C were 3, then wave 4 down would have overlapped 1/A which is not allowed in an impulse.

Prices have also broken down out of the perfect trend channel. And such a trend channel itself it more indicative of a zigzag wave than it is of an impulse (see The Eight Fold Path Method as to why.) That's quite a change from near $80 to under $50, so I hope the prediction showed the power of knowing the Elliott Wave patterns and their typical progress.

So, now it is time to suggest a path for stock market prices in the near term. The chart looks like this.

S&P500 Cash Index - Daily - Potential Path

It would be typical for wave ((iii)) to become 1.618 the length of wave ((i)), and that is because wave ((ii)) has taken more time than wave ((i)), already. This should set a sufficient base (or ceiling in this case) for the decline.

It is not clear that wave minute ((ii)) is over. There are ways it could extend in time. One way for it to extend in time is for the (y) wave to stretch out into a triangle - perhaps surrounding the holidays. However, the current waves are sufficient for minute ((ii)).

The next step is to draw the "base channel" around waves ((i)) and ((ii)), and the break of the base channel lower would likely be minute ((iii)), downward.

Following wave ((iii)) then should be a non-overlapping retracement for wave ((iv)) - length of time to be determined, followed by a fifth wave downward, which might approximately wave ((i)) in length.

One uncertain item is the degree of the current waves. I am currently showing them as minute waves. But I reserve the right to show them as Minor waves based on some considerations later in future. Time will tell if that becomes necessary.

Have an excellent rest of the weekend.
TraderJoe

P.S. For those trying to construct expanding diagonals, this is the more common form. Note how 'deep' wave two is, and wave four is greater than a 62% retrace.

ES Futures - 5 min - 'Potential Expanding Diagonal' - Must Prove Itself

A upward  wave of more that 1.618 occurred. Therefore, The Eight Fold Path Method may shed some light on this wave. Additional chart below.

EWO may come back to zero line. This is the only labeling that supports degree conformation.