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| S&P500 Cash Index - Hourly - Degree, Fibonacci and Volume |
Starting at the upper left, we have the minuet (y) failure, as called in real time, of the minute ((ii)) wave. Then, wave (i) is a diagonal - also as we called it, followed by a zigzag upward for minuet (ii).
The Fibonacci ruler shows there was a 1.618 extension as close as is needed. It is hard to argue with this pure measurement, and the suggestion that it is clearly denoting minuet (iii) of minute ((iii)). As I have noted before, if a decline ended the day after the FED day, then this wave is smaller than minuet (i), and is, now, therefore the likely location of wave sub-minuette i. Thus, this count meets degree labeling requirements. The rest of the count is pretty self-explanatory. It is not a diagonal - just a non-overlapping impulse in a wedge.
I tried to see a way if this idea could be "tested". So, independently of the EWO, I decided to plot volume. Volume spikes typically occur in a third wave. Over on the left, the red volume spike would be in iii of C of i of (i) - not labeled.
Then the rest of this count would put the volume spikes on Micro ((3)) of i, Miniscule -iii inside micro ((5)) of i, and on minuet iii, itself. Then, the volume dries up almost entirely on the holiday wave v. This really seems like an excellent fit, and tends to confirm the count.
So, then the question arises about the hourly EWO being at about -55% instead of -40, it's max guideline. Well, it is a 'guideline' and it is not formally codified into the Elliott Wave rule system. Is it just an over-shoot on the light holiday volume? Not sure.
Next, a review of gaps is similar to that of volume, with the vast majority of them occurring in the third waves,
But, other than derivatives of price and volume (such as oscillators, money flow, etc.) this seems to be about the maximum amount of information the market is willing to give us at this time.
Have an excellent weekend.
TraderJoe
Great job ET. Volume adds one more piece of the puzzle together. Can you please take a look at my post @ "December 30, 2018 at 2:08 AM" on previous post. My question there was can 4th wave be a triangle and 5th wave its cousin diagonal ?
ReplyDeleteI have already said that wave ((4)) of the larger diagonal has to first be taken out to rule out a, flat b, and a further c higher. Your small diagonal 'might' be part of a b wave. Why can't I get people to pay attention to what I write. Oh, I see you were posting at 2 am. Lol.
DeleteJoe,
DeleteFrom the "Diagonal Pending" post:
In terms of the diagonal, one would like to see wave ((4)) exceeded lower by a few points as this would also create overlap in the cash on it's first wave up.
From above:
wave ((4)) of the larger diagonal has to first be taken out to rule out a, flat b, and a further c higher.
To clarify, You are meaning a significant break below ((4)), not a marginal break.
ET, you chart was showing ES futures. I was trying to find a pattern on SPX index which should have some what similar count indicating we are close to retrace/reversal. But agree that futures will set the stage for index.
DeleteJohn Locke: Whoever this organization is, they are breaking U.S. Copyright law. My posts may not be stored, duplicated, re-transmitted, or transferred in any form without the express permission of the author. Your post and its reference have been deleted. Further action may be pending.
ReplyDeleteJoe, it is only a sort of "time machine"
DeleteThey scan the web and keep a copy of old sites (that may be come in handy sometimes).
That said, I understand your point of view
My Happy New Year remains anyway valid... and thanks for all the fish ;)
Please know this is not nonsense. I am trying to apply rules.
ReplyDeleteI am focused on circle 3 in diagram. Its subwaves are not labeled. We know all of circle 3 is limited by (1). There is no violation.
But we also know that subwaves of circle 3 are limited by circle 1.
There will inevitably be violations in this wave, the subwaves are too large. I have measured this wave now for weeks. The best i can do is end it (circle 3) a bit earlier, but that would lead an expanded flat within circle 4 where b>300% a.
Please simply look at the image i have sent. If i am misapplying rules i need to know.
https://imgur.com/a/tMyHZFR
Thanks
As far as I can tell, the degrees in micro ((3)) are perfectly preserved, and the wave fours are longer in time than their two's.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/9nfhc
No more posts by me on this topic.
TJ
Marc,
DeleteI enjoy many of your posts because they make me think about things more deeply. Know that what follows is being said as a friend in way that is trying to be constructive. You seem to spend a lot of time challenging counts and this is a good thing to do and I can tell you have a very analytical mind. I too have a bent towards the analytical but I also try to be mindful of perspective.
Consider the following:
1. In the EWT book, Chapter 1, Detailed Analytics section: It is mentioned that in years of research they can only find 1 instance in waves above subminuette degree where a rule was broken. This would indicate that in waves of subminuette and below the rules are not always followed.
2. Neely's work is an extension of EWT and not part of the original concept and I'm not sure if it is considered to be rules or guidelines. In any case, that fact that Neely doesn't consider waves shorter than using 6 month bars or longer would lead me to believe that violations on waves of subminuette and smaller are not relevent. The waves you are speaking of above are smaller than subminuette. While I support building things from the ground up, sometimes the forest is more important than the trees.
that is exactly what i need to hear. What should be the smallest time frame which i study. Much thanks.
DeleteThe answer is you need to learn a little better how flats and triangles preserve wave degrees.
Deletethanks joe. my goal is to learn and not be difficult. i appreciate all your help. I'll let that advice sink in and try to incorporate it.
DeleteJoe,
ReplyDeleteI like this one a lot!!!
Joe, Happy New Year!!!!!
Minute 5 is expected to end 2303 or 2220? Thx
ReplyDeleteI came across this yesterday. Confirms to me a ED and a vicious bear mkt rally. Will see how futures open this evening to see if its confirmed..Seems fitting for the end of w3, fast and furious!!
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX/tJwsbqnb-Money-Flow-Continues-To-Show-Distribution-WeeklyPreview12-31-18/
I really like Money Flow as an indicator - especially at daily turning points. Thanks for posting.
DeleteIt looks like our retracement rally (4) is a measured move (cash). AB=CD.
ReplyDeleteJoe in waveiii I can not tell the alternation of waves in Circle2 compared to Circle4. 4 looks like a flat but can you tell me what Circle2 is. Thanks for tue the update.
ReplyDeleteProbably a short zigzag after the diagonal. I can't be absolutely certain but it can be counted that way. Anyway, I don't mean to be rude, but I am no longer commenting on this topic.
DeleteJoe, wave c of the current flat is 497% of wave a. Is that allowed?
ReplyDeleteThis current wave reminds me of Peanuts. The market is Lucy with the football and the bears are Charlie Brown. Every time SPX seems ready to keel over, it makes a strong move up. If wave (iv) is only 62% as long in time as wave (iii), that's many bars to go before it sleeps.
Joe, could you please spend (more than) few words to explain why "gaps tend to be closed"?
ReplyDeleteIt could be a side note to some of your usual daily comments
Sometimes you said that trading algorithms "search and destroy" gaps.
Why is it so?
I know that this happens but I never found a convincent explanation about this fact.
Thanks in advance.
With reference to this article that covers most of it:
Deletehttps://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/05/playinggaps.asp
I will only say that many trading algorithms are 'volume sensitive'. Of course, I can not speak to the design of every major player's algorithms but many of them are 'volume sensitive'. Gaps represent a place where there was either 'high volume' like in a continuation gap or a place where there is 'low volume' like in an exhaustion gap.
And just like any other price marker - such as a new high, new low or an 18-day SMA - the large players, the 'smart money', uses these gaps as reliable 'volume markers': just as reliable as price markers.
So, when there is no reliable price marker near-by - no prior high, no prior low, no significant Fibonacci level - then the prior gap or gaps provides the targets to set as the algorithm's goal. Hence the term "search and destroy".
Thanks Joe. Great forecasting!. I am not able to see the start of retrace from the diagonal. In the chart above a/b of (iv) look way too small compared to c. Is that not a degree violation?
ReplyDeleteCorrection: "not able to" --> "now able to"
ReplyDeleteI am no longer commenting on that topic as per previous comments.
DeleteHappy New Year Joe!
ReplyDeleteWouldn't blame you if you have 1 or 2 extra tonight. lol
I'm working on 'em already!
DeleteDarn thought market closed at 1pm lol. We closed the gap but have inside day. Happy to see the market back at the 13 day ema so it is decision time. As Dr Alexander Elder suggest making trading decisions at the 13 ema. Ira suggest once the Stochastic loses it's embedded reading it can often make a run at the 20 day.
ReplyDeleteHappy New Year Eve Joe!
Prices are currently testing this hourly ES trend line. (Note: it is not the trend line of the diagonal).
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/9nowc
TJ
TJ-Thanks for all your posts this year and prior ones too. I've been following you since you were posting videos on youtube!(I really miss those videos!) I'm not a trader but I always check your blog to to get the best info on what's happening with the market as I am a long term investor. I'm wishing you and all who read your blog a very Happy New Year. Thank you very much for all your work.
ReplyDeleteThank you Rose! I remember you well, and wish you the best in the New Year as well!
DeleteJoe, I really appreciate all your time and hard work. Hope you have a wonderful 2019!
ReplyDeleteThanks Kelly! You, as well!.
DeleteJoe, wish you and yours a fantastic 2019! Thank you for sharing all your knowledge!
ReplyDeleteVery welcome, and you have a great 2019, too!
DeleteJoe, Although I have purchased and read both Prechter and Neely, your instruction with current examples throughout the year have greatly increased my understanding of EW Theory. Thank you so much for your time, diligence, discipline and hard work. I wish you and your family a Happy and Healthy New Year.
ReplyDeleteVery nice of you to say. Welcome, Inquisitive, and Happy New Year, too!
DeleteJust a Happy New Year message to the community here and thanks to Joe for his sterling efforts and diligence.
ReplyDeleteTwo gifts, first a chart which shows a year-long head and shoulders pattern on NQ. Another 100 points on Wednesday to re-test the neckline from below, target is way down at 5100. Licking my lips!
Second gift, the verb 'to back-fill' is one hyphenated verb. Hence, it would be correct to say 'there may well be some back-filling', but not to say 'there may be some backing and filling'. Another example would be 'up-selling'. Hope the book is coming along well and is a success.
I will need to go back and look ( 2016 I think it was) - where you were discussing when the first waves were the extended waves and thus, at the time in a bull market, why we were not seeing pull backs of measure.
ReplyDeleteFor me, I think that is why I have been having difficulty counting - as my mind seems to always look for the extension in the 3rd wave position.
Also, thanks from me as well for sharing your knowledge. It takes a special kind of person to make the effort to share and to teach. I recognize that and hope that you know your efforts are making a difference to a lot of people.
DeleteThere is now a new post for the Monday.
ReplyDelete"In the New Year, may your right hand always be stretched out in friendship, but never in want." -- Traditional Irish toast
ReplyDelete..and may the wind always be at your back!
Delete