Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed mixed
SPX Candle: Lower High, Lower Low, Lower Close - Trend Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)
Thanks to Erik B. from the group we were discussing wave counts with here on line. He pointed out a degree violation at wave w below, which meant that we have revised slightly only the position of where the minuet (i) is on the chart. We were trying to count the flat. It did not work this morning, as the downward wave got too long in time and in price. The degree violation is that w is larger than ii, and could not be a sub-wave of a c wave, up. Good job, Erik!
The chart we are showing below is the ES 2-hour futures because your eyes can accept it better.
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| ES 2-Hour Futures - Leading Diagonal Minuet (i) Down |
In cash, there is also this possibility, but also the possibility of an 'expanding diagonal' down to the same location. Talk about ambiguous! In any event, the wave is still in a channel. Today, 'ground and ground' lower.
Time to be on one's toes and be calm, flexible and patient. So far, things are adding up well as we adjust slightly.
Have a good evening.
TraderJoe
thanks joe,
ReplyDeletei posted this at end of prior blog.
im reposting it here:
I see us done with this ii of (ii), just as i saw us done with (ii) in my posts yesterday. We will see. Its funny how the simple eyeball 5 down 3 up count from December 3 high is "right" - but how much back and forth it took to get it there. IF this is a wave 3 coming (which is what we are here to trade) then the joe's approach has not disappointed.
It's just that everyone has different 'eyeballs', like Jay, below seeing an inverse head and shoulders. I'm trying to present the measurements that cause us all to agree on what those peepers think they see.
Deleteif it is going (iii) it needs to go immediately. what are odds (ii) is in you think? I remain a skeptic.
ReplyDelete70:30 that (ii) is in. Mhoo - my humble opinion only
Deletethere is a probability>0 which is not always the case
ReplyDeletethanks joe for your excellent work, that I am reviewing for months now here in Germany. It helps a lot to understand the market.
ReplyDeleteJust a little hint from my side: Have a look at the DJ Transportation Index, which is a pretty good early indicator for downers, which is perfectly fitting to your last count. So let us wait for the confirmation in the SPX ;)
Hi and welcome. In general the Unknown account is not replied to. Please chose a username. Though I agree.
DeleteThanks Joe. The chart also looks a bit like inverse head & shoulder with 2680-2700 region as the neckline and recent low at 2580 as the head. Break above the neckline would target roughly 2800.
ReplyDeleteAnd thank you Joe for introducing me to the concept of degree!
ReplyDeleteWelcome!
DeleteThis may sound like a ignorant question but is the concept really important to know? I have been a student of Elliott for about a year now but have been putting off learning degree because I want understand the concepts of patterns and such. Will me taking the time to learn degree really help much?
DeleteThank you
Yes. It will help immensely.
DeleteI've been studying and reading with Elliott Wave for a few years - my counts would always bust - it wasn't until I found this site and especially recently with the concept of degree - that I started getting more accurate(and I've done other markets on my own to learn). Degree labeling is HUGE!
DeleteThanks, Joe!
Welcome Walter.
DeleteJoe I was wondering if you have any experience with Elliott Wave International and if you thought they were a recommendable source for someone to use to continue to learn and see how they do it?
ReplyDeleteEmail me at the address in the profile for a brief response on this.
DeleteEWI is regularly ranked by Hulbert's as having the WORST record of ALL the publications they track for forecasting accuracy. If you want to LOOSE money,follow their wave counts. I realize Joe wants to be circumspect,I was a subscriber for years, and how I wish other traders had warned me about them. They are toxic. Stay away! Just my own humble opinion...
DeleteHi ET
ReplyDeleteI’ve started reading some of Constance Brown’s works. She has developed an unbound oscillator called Composite index. Her reasoning was to solve the divergence failure problem in the RSI. It can also help in determining the Elliott wave degree. I’ll add a small chart, what I’m noticing is maybe a divergence on iii of 3. I’m going to continue studying in depth as the RSI can leave any technician missing a large trend change.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/NqDNjDbt/
On SPX 30 mins chart, one can see clear 5 waves forming wedge like structure for Y. Wedge broke yesterday @ 13.30. Hopefully that was an indication of Y ending & hence (ii). That also give nice 3-3-5 strucuture to entire WXY.
ReplyDeleteI may be wrong but I think wxy is always 3-3-3.
DeleteW & X are always 3's Y can be a triangle or a 3
DeleteThanks for pointing that out. Just start learning complex correction.
DeleteIf anyone is still monitoring - The futures just broke below today's market hours low'
ReplyDeleteThanks Joe. I found your site a couple days ago. It helps me to see your ideas. The futures are falling fast after the close so that triangle idea seems to be out and it's looking more like 3 of 3 has started. Thanks to everyone for your ideas!
ReplyDeleteIn response to Elliott Day Trader and his comment " … one can see clear 5 waves forming wedge like structure for Y", if that was the case then Y (assuming an ending contracting diagonal) should have been fully retraced by now. In both cash and futures Y has not been fully retraced AND the down move from Y is longer in both indices.
ReplyDelete… the down move from Y is longer in TIME in both indices.
DeleteBilly, are you referring to the concept that a diagonal should be retraced in less time than it took to form?
DeleteY is not and can not be a diagonal. Y must be and abc or a triangle. In this case Y is an abc where c is a diagonal and it was retraced in less time than it took to form.
DeleteWell done. Thank you Pittsburgh Tom.
DeleteYou're welcome. In any case this down move really has a goofy form because it was so volatile and choppy. It looks like an LD down and an abc for 2. Futures going hard after hours in 3.
Deletediagonal cam be slmost done ir in early stages. very large down waves in higher degrees. these waves down will be bigger than usual if we are in 3
ReplyDeleteThis wave does not walk or talk like (iii) of ((iii)). In my opinion we our on the way to complete that expanded flat for ((ii)) which is still not off the table. Imagine the pain the bears would feel at around 2800, the bulls will be convinced of a new all time high in early 2019. Then we will see (iii). After all Santa hasn't come yet, he might have left the north pole on the 10th, stopped for a break on the 12th back on the sleigh sometime on the 14th.
ReplyDeleteI agree. We will not see the bankster wrangling around price pivots as we saw this morning around 2620. One chatacteristic of third waves is the authoritative demolition of previous support pivots. Not happening here imho.
DeleteSeeing LD on SPX 60 mins from 12/12 high. Terminals 0 - 2685.44, 1 - 2650.26, 2 - 2670.19, 3 - 2638.89, 4 - 2654.38, 5 - 2637.27. It is fullfilling all requirements of LD, 1 > 3 > 5 and 2 > 4 (both in time and price) with 4 overlapping with 1. If we go to 4 mins chart to see 120 to 160 candles to analyze the down wave from 12/12, EWO is also showing divergence in the peaks which should be the EWO signature for converging diagonal.
ReplyDeletenow whats count
ReplyDeletei imagine still LD finishing at low but i havent counted, that was my point
ReplyDeleteCan today's gap down confirm (ii) is over and (iii) is beginning ?
DeleteThe impulse wave of tonight (in futures) is less than 1.618 times the ld of yesterday. This does to think that is not 1-2-3, but a-b-c.
DeleteVIX gap is at 20.60 - let's see how the market reacts once that gets filled. This looks like some sort of C wave to me
ReplyDelete5 waves down from yesterday's 3.45 high retrace.
ReplyDeleteJoe, using fib extension targets from 12/12 high / low on ES E mini futures shows 'first tier' targets of 2613.25 and 2593.00 (ES) For reference only.
ReplyDeleteOPINION SURVEY:
ReplyDeleteIf the Fed fails to raise rates next week:
1. The market rejoices and rallies.
2. The market worries that the Fed sees weakness in the economy and sells off.
Would love to hear everyone's thoughts.
All members with the correct answer will win one free post to the blog.
Fed raises,market rallies into 24th December.
DeleteInteresting question Pittsburgh Tom. This is the thing when people say the news affects or doesn't affect the market and why Elliott wave is so effective. News of course, does affect the market but it's the psychology of people going into that news that makes the patterns work
ReplyDeleteFrom Wednesday's high it looks like we had an LD down for 1 of 3. Then a flat for 2 of 3. 3 of 3 kicked off with a gap down today followed by another flat wave2 and now accelerating in 3 of 3 of 3.
ReplyDeleteCould we have extended 5th and still be 1 of 3 ? On 1 mins chart we are close to 160 candles. EWO giving some clues.
DeleteEDT,
DeleteIs it possible, just possible, that we might be forming a "d" wave of an expanding triangle? While we are lacking a bit more time than the possible "c" wave, we are getting rather close.
where is your starting point?
DeleteThe retrace of the LD that ET has above is now between .786 and 1.0 in time.
ReplyDeleteNot sure what you are counting but the retrace of diagonal (i) ended at (ii)
DeleteDiagonal should be broken below in less time to build.
DeleteA leading diagonal does not get broken. An ending diagonal up should be broken lower in less time and an ending diagonal down should get broken to the upside in less time. A leading diagonal gets partially corrected not broken.
DeleteDaily Russell 2000 Slow stoch. looks to be going embedded. https://invst.ly/9iyax
ReplyDeleteHow they apply the rules of degree in a wave that begins with gap? We have reference of time.
ReplyDeleteLooking ES, wave 3 is short and looks more like a a-b-c. Looking cash, today I can count a 1-2 fast and a nested i-ii maybe equal or shorter (not finished), but taking more time.
Sorry I want to say "we have not good reference of time in a gap".
DeleteSee my comment below.
Deletejoe can this move down from 12/12 have begun with 2 first wave diagonals? different degrees?
ReplyDeleteSee below.
Delete1) thanks
Delete2) red ii at end has NOT ended yet on your chart?
and possibly at lest 1 more degree of subwaves can be measured?
DeleteMarc .. your questions are getting cryptic again. Please take time to explain what you mean. So far, we have the EWO on a new low. And red -ii has already taken more time than red -i. So I do not understand the question, as posed.
Deletejust a follow up to your comment above. Yesterday we came to understanding that wave 2 has conditions where it must take longer than wave 1. This is not always the case. Was it required today in that wave count you posted? If so, how does it differ from black ii taking less time than black i?
DeleteNow that price has traveled below 2,605; we know it can not have been done without sub-waves. Chart at this link.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/9iyg9
TJ
Awesome ET ! 2 mins charts with EWO really showing the same with close to 144 candles. Looks like we are done with 1 of iii.
DeleteEDT - are you sure?
ReplyDeleteMay be ending 1 of iii soon as we are approaching 144 candle range. May be we have roll up to next time frame after that.
DeleteNicely done, wave red -iii is now past 100% x wave red -i; and it is more than 262% x wave red -ii. These are simple measurements we can agree on.
ReplyDeleteRemember, wave red -iii is only constrained by the size of wave black i.
Deletethanks.
DeleteWhat is the third wave of red -iii constrained by?
so a third wave is constrained by the size of the first wave of 1 higher degree?
DeleteTJ, the leading diagonal I showed on the NDX
Delete(https://imgur.com/a/HEJVBBZ) gave me the clues for today's action but I have a question relating to the various references made regarding "degrees". Will be there be information I can read in the "Mastering Elliottwave" by Neely that will give me a better grasp of degrees that you keep mentioning. If so, what chapters specifically. I attained the book today. I only ask because If i do my own research then I can stop wasting your valuable time by asking questions relating to the topic.
Hi V. No, the topic is not well outlined in any Elliott Wave book. I am working on a formalism now.
DeleteMark, yes, say you are counting Minor 1, Minor 2, Minor 3. Then, within Minor 3, wave minute (iii) 'can not' be larger than Minor 1. It would violate the meaning of the term degree.
Deletethanks joe.
Deleteit makes sense. So today, while red iii could travel further, its subwaves are limited by red i. This makes count challenging for today - I think entire move down is 1 leading diagonal from yesterday top. Your wave rules are bumping up against serious constraints - maybe that means move down almost over. I'll wait and see. Thanks
Shouldn't wave 1 go past 2583 when it's complete?
ReplyDeleteIf it does, we can reduce the degrees in this down count by one demotion, and put black sub-minuette i at the low, as it will not be longer than minuet (i); thus there will be no degree violation.
DeleteFor those thinking this is a-b-c down; that count is gaining some probability, as several mentioned earlier, due to the 'slow speed' of the wave. But, the downward wave is not yet 90%, either. Close, but not there yet.
ReplyDeleteSo far, the wave from 2656 - 2595 (61 pts), is longer than the wave from 2685 - 2637 (48 pts); again just more measurements we can agree upon.
ReplyDeleteET the idea of adjusting time frame to get 120 to 144 and then EWO is very valuable.
ReplyDeleteIt's 120 - 160 candles. ; )
DeleteLooks like SPX cash missed the 90% by .4 pts (unsure on futures)
ReplyDeleteBy reading the message board daily, I see you guys (mostly full time charters / traders I assume) are learning so fast - I am going to have to put more effort into my late night study.
ReplyDeleteHi TJ, Thanks for the update. I'm sure you read the STU. They have shown internal counts relating to the wave down from y (2690) but didn't show internals for today's down move. I used AAPL as a guide and I thought I'd share my count - It's worked pretty well so far and I traded it & the index based on the count shown https://imgur.com/a/J5uKF1V
ReplyDeleteLooked like a clear 4th wave triangle and now has come back to test my lovely trendline to "possibly" complete 5. If this is right then it correlates with EWI count on the SPX futures shown in the STU.
Per my comment earlier today-"using fib extension targets from 12/12 high / low on ES e-mini futures shows 'first tier' targets of 2613.25 and 2593.00 (ES)" - both targets were hit +/- 1pt. ES 2594.00 held after the close. Another bounce up / back down from here would total 3 up/down moves in the lower half of the 12/12 leg. 3 or 4 up/down moves would be typical for a completing bottom at some degree with the 3rd / 4th up down move printing a lower low or a higher low. For reference only
ReplyDelete