Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed uniformly higher
SPX Candle: Higher High, Lower Low, Higher Close - Trend Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)
The primary purposes of tonight's post are to show that 1) a reasonable channel is still being maintained. Usually, most-often, not always, a portion of the third wave is outside of the channel to show where the most momentum was - whether to the upside, or in this case, the down side. 2) to show that the hourly Elliott Wave Oscillator is about where one would expect it four a fourth wave. There are two options for considering this wave. I have no preference at this time. They each have their own strong points.
Option 1
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| SP500 Cash Index - Hourly - Option 1 |
The strong points of Option 1 are that wave (iii) would be more than 1.618 x (i); wave (ii) would be much longer in time than wave (i); and waves (ii) and (iv) would alternate. We have no way of knowing that wave (iv) is done. Right now, it is a double zigzag. It 'could' make a triple zigzag without a problem.
Option 2
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| SP500 Cash Index - Hourly - Option 2 |
The strong points of the second option are that 1) there maybe a better way to preserve degree labeling in this count, 2) waves (ii) and (iv) would still alternate, and 3) wave (iv) would be longer in time than wave (ii), which is often, though not always, the case. Here too, wave (iv) does not have to be seen as over. It may be forming a contracting diagonal c wave. The obvious weak point is you really have to stretch to see that b wave.
Clearly, the longest and strongest downward bar is the FED day, and that should likely be seen somewhere in minuet wave (iii) of minute ((iii)).
Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
P.S. Option 3, added after the open the next morning.
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| SP500 Cash - Hourly - Option 3 |
In this count, I think sub-wave i just sneaks in under the wire by a few points. Subject to verification.
Awesome TJ...Thank you for confirmation!!
ReplyDeleteAn additional observation is that wave (iv) is 11 points above the 38.2% retracement of (iii) and 28 points below the 50% retracement. You can draw your own conclusions.
ReplyDeleteLooks good!
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/QToK1j9L/
Math off in chart should be 2277.07.
Deletethanks joe. great work. if we get over 2518, then this wave will be larger than the Y of the WXY for larger degree second wave... So possibly a subwave of (iv) or (iv) of 3 (in the upward direction) is larger than a subwave of 2 in the upward direction, yet 2 is the wave moving up, not 3. is this something to conider? If so, then maybe the wave know not to go above that level....
ReplyDeleteMark, unless I'm mistaken this wave (iv) and (y) are both the same degree waves - Minuette, so there is no limitation factor here. For this (iv) to violate degree and become a larger degree wave it would have to be larget than all of Minute ((ii)) which is around 215 points which would put the mark at 2561.
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Delete11/21-12/03 higher degree wave
ReplyDeleteAnd what degree is it?
Deleteit is wxy W2. second wave of bear market following first major low in october.
DeleteAnd what degree is the y wave?
Deletethis should clarify
Deletehttps://imgur.com/a/CAsNAGi
No, actually it confuses things even more. I don't have any idea what wave convention labeling you are using but it is not the one the rest of us are using. I can list the wave labeling structure if you like.
Deleteits ok. theoretically, we have waves 1 2 complete. we are in wave 3. i am interested if subwave (iv) of 3 has any restrictions from the completed wave 2. thats all...
DeleteMark, I gave that answer in my original comment to your 6:08 post. If you relabel your chart with the correct conventions you will see that w-w-y and the current iv are all the same degree - minuette. So (iv) is limited by minute((ii)) not its subwaves because they are the same degree. I can't make it any more plain.
DeleteJust caught something in your 10:47 post that may be causing the confusion. . We are not in iv of (iii). (iii) ended at 2347 we are now in (iv).
DeleteDelete
Joe,
ReplyDeleteConfirm my thinking if you would be so kind. 2347 to 2468 is a three wave affair. The number of patterns beginning with three waves is limited to a triangle, a flat, a double or triple 3 and a diagonal. Since we are in the 4th wave position the diagonal is eliminated. That means the larger 3 waves up to 2488 so far has to be a of a flat, triangle or combination 3.
In your Option 2, the Dec 20th low is (iii). What would be the labeling of this same low under Option 1?
ReplyDeleteThanks!
Thanks Joe for wonderful posts. Is there any way that the current impulsive is like a repeat of 1987 whereby we experience a sharp 'crash' decline followed by more upside ahead?
ReplyDeleteWelcome. Not likely; after the neckline break of the Head & Shoulders pattern I showed, all of that is now "overhead resistance".
DeleteJoe - -you mentioned that FED was largest decline it should be 3/3. Take a look at https://imgur.com/a/CAsNAGi - the largest 2 up bars since decline are last 2 days - what wave would those typically reside in or is it irrelevant ?
ReplyDeleteGreat job this year TJ
ReplyDeleteI’ll be really impressed if we see a lower low anytime soon.
Thanks for the kudos, Todd.
DeleteThanks Joe for the great analysis. Any reason this overall downward movement cannot start with an ABC instead of five waves, as part of a large double zig-zag?
ReplyDeleteWelcome SVS. No reason to assume such yet. Hourly EWO still right on track.
DeleteWave V Will be The longest? Taking Dow down to 15-16k finish wave C of 4? Irregular flat with an extended wave B being the top?
ReplyDeleteIn general, comments to the Unknown account are not replied to. Please select a name.
DeleteSorry Joe, thank you for fantastic analysis. My poi t was on The larger picture, could this big dwn wave be a wave C dwn of 4 counting from march 2009. So an irregular flat? where The B wave is The top not wave 5 and we have one more race up to a new top from Approx 15-16k Dow.
DeleteName: Johan
Here is a thought for this morning. Nothing is proven yet, so be flexible, calm and patient.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/9n0lj
TJ
The count would either be 1) the end of the move, or 2) the (a) wave of a triangle to better equalize the net distance traveled with the second wave. Will correct the exact degree when we see what the pattern is, and if it plays out.
DeleteI have added an Option Three chart, as a post-script above. This one would better align with a 'potential' fourth wave triangle. By these measuring tools, sub-wave sub-minuette i sneaks in by just a few points. Someone should check my work on a good charting platform.
ReplyDeleteThanks, great count option !
Deletethats option I'm taking...thank you TJ
DeleteWouldn't you need to move (i) to the left as you have it in option 1 in order to provide alternation?
ReplyDeleteSome of my thoughts on alternation:
ReplyDeleteOne of the nice things about alternation is that once wave 2 is defined it gives a clue as to what general form wave 4 will take. This doesn't seem to be of a help right now because of the murky patterns of (1) and (2). Wave (1) can be reasonably placed in 2 different locations. Placement 1 leaves wave 2 as a running flat as in Joe's option 1 above. Placement 2 leaves wave 2 as a zigzag as in Joe's option 2 above. This leaves us in the unusual situation of not really knowing what wave 2 was until wave 4 completes which is the reverse of what usually occurs. So I guess we have alternation of alternation.
As far as checking, i am unable to reconciling any move from 12/6 to low as impulse.
ReplyDeletethat is wave (iii) on your charts.
That is "predcitive" of a larger rally than your chart suggests.
I think The ramification is that
1) we are in higher degree 4 - but violation not much higher,
2) WE have WXY down complete from ATH.
marc, It sure looks like 3 waves from dec 3 down....working on wave 4...with wave 5 to follow...
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Deleteshow me a count that works at small time frames....
ReplyDeletei posted a count we were in 4 of 5 down. I posted before low on 12/26. Be advised joe reviewed and doesnt like look of it. The market will resolve it one way or another.
ReplyDeleteYup, Mr market is always the final say!!
Deletemove from 12/3
ReplyDeletestudy EWO
use 30 minutes cash 208 bars - you can find 5 down
use 60 minutes cash 104 bars - you can find 3 down - and 4th getting too big
study the EWO
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ReplyDeleteMinuet (iii) bigger in price than minute ((i)) with terminal for minuet (iii) 2346 spx
ReplyDeleteSeeing expanding diagonal getting formed on 5 mins spx. Need to take out 2472.89 to give 5th wave.
ReplyDeletewave 1 - 9.45-9.50
wave 2 - 9.50-10.00
wave 3 - 10.00-10.35
wave 4 - 10.35-12.40
Invalidation above 2504.47
thanks joe.
ReplyDeletealso contracting in other direction from low 2 days ago??
ET had pointed that out in live chats.
Deletei mean EDT not ET
ReplyDeleteEWO is giving 4th wave signature, most probably one more wave up.
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone believe this downward move is complete? I just can’t get my head around this count. What would be the alt count if the move is complete.
ReplyDelete123 or abc from october top
ReplyDeleteThere are now five waves up. Hourly EWO is 'maxed out' for the move. The upper channel line has been pressed on hard. There are still no significant overlaps. The five waves up 'might' be the C wave of the flat in Option 2. When the five waves up finish, there should 'at least' be a retrace, if not lower lows.
ReplyDeleteFive Waves in a wedge ((3)) < ((1))
Deletehttps://invst.ly/9n3s6
TJ
Overlap of wave 1 up from 1:30. May be finishing as an ED
Deleteor may be done
ReplyDeletelooks like somebody turned on johnny 5
ReplyDeleteThe hourly futures may have this overlapping count, and may be a diagonal.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/9n422
TJ
Now engulfing last hourly bar; let's see if it holds.
DeleteNow breaching the wedge lower.
DeleteIF this is an ending diagonal, then the low must be taken out in fewer hourly bars than it took to construct it. IF a leading diagonal, the low will not be broken.
DeleteCould be 3 up and an expanded flat 4th
ReplyDeleteNot in the futures chart, as there is already wave ((1)) overlap.
DeleteCould only be a, and a flat b of ((5)) in the futures, but not below ((4).
DeleteWell, as they used to say on Saturday Night Live, those futures traders are "Wild and Crazy Guys", but I guess I'm dating myself lol
DeleteI know of another site where we could go and the owner could just make up a new pattern for us. lol
DeleteNot sure if it's significant but we did tag the 50% retracement of (iii) but did not overlap i of (iii), and that window was very small. Is it possible that as Marc has been saying that we are in iv of (iii) even with a degree violation?
Deletethere is no violation in my count. i am referring to the charts above for the wave labels i'm using PT.
Deletei have (v) ending where (iii) ends.
wave (iii) is where you should look for violations in above charts - i still cant come up with valid count within that wave.
2464 would be degree change
ReplyDeleteBearish engulfing held for the hour; lower still, now, in after-hours.
ReplyDeleteIf we just finished a diagonal then DOW futures had a failed/truncated 5th wave. Is that significant?
ReplyDeleteBilly a diagonal with truncated 5th wave, is only allowed in an ED.
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ReplyDelete