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| ES E-Mini S&P500 Index Futures - Hourly - Large Gap Up |
Again, the risks of a miscount remain high in this area. But, the triangle b wave might be signalling near the end of the rise. A very clear reversal sequence, including a failure to make a new higher high when c ends would be needed to provide the post-pattern behavior necessary for confirmation.
Here is a second post of the day. Because this wave might be so critical. Please note the time relationships in the down waves to (A). And note that (B) at the bottom is much greater than 62% which might eliminate it as a second wave. This count 'could' be incorrect. I am just trying to follow Neely's guidelines.
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| ES Futures - 5 Minutes - Neely Guidelines |
It would be necessary for (B) to hold for a triangle count, and best if the green up fractal is broken.
For those reading later in the day, the green up fractal at B, at around 13:30 was, in fact, exceeded higher late in the day.
Third chart added on the Decline of 12/4.
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| SP500 Cash Index - 15 Minute Chart - Fifth Wave Failure of 'c' of (y) |
Have a good start to the week.
TraderJoe
joe
ReplyDeletethanks
i have same idea
Cash has retraced between 38.2% and 50% of the gap opening in 3 waves. This would be a logical spot for a bounce if it intends om making a new high.
ReplyDeleteWondering if there will be a market reaction if the 10yr (TNX) breaks below 3%?
ReplyDeleteor oil continuing to roll over
DeleteDo we have a small leading diagonal down? 1 min chart.
ReplyDelete3 is longer than 1 yet 4 overlaps 1 by .33 pts : confusing
DeleteI know you're laughing Joe! I can hear ya.
ReplyDeletea = 2785, b = 2796, c of (i) = 2776, (ii) = 2785.50, (iii) = 2773.50, (iv) must be less than 2,783 futures, and (v) less than (iii).
DeleteThat just invalidated, so only diagonal possibility is c of (i) at 2,773.50 with a very long fourth wave within c.
DeleteI was counting 2776 as 3 followed by a triangle 4 ending at 2782
ReplyDeleteThe Dow and RUT did not have any overlap
ReplyDeleteHello Joe,(2) > ((2)) in the above chart, why is it not a degree violation?
ReplyDeleteYes, you could also still show it as the five-wave move with the fifth wave extension to 'a'. Multiple ways to diagram it. Could show ((1)) on the spike where (1) is now, and (2) where ((2)) is now. The latter is probably better.
DeleteBut, it is now water under the bridge, and need to concentrate on the waves in front of us.
Understand. Thak you.
DeleteKeep in mind, if a diagonal invalidates, the a-b-c in cash is all that is needed to start a fourth wave triangle. And, I kind of prefer the triangle scenario, here, due to proximity to the prior high of (w).
ReplyDeletePrice is now up to the top of a descending channel; over the channel, and the diagonal gets lower probability.
DeleteNow up over the channel, watch for triangle fourth wave.
DeleteAre you counting the move down to LOD as a of the triangle?
DeleteYes, so far.
DeleteIF the up fractal at ES 2790.50 breaks upward, it would be a good assumption that a triangle is underway. Until then ...
DeleteOn 5 mins chart, seeing end of second wave on spx, need to take out @ 2789.79 which is wave 1 high... that might make a new high over today high.
DeleteClose to taking out the fractal at 2783.13...
Deletenot following. I ahve b at 2790 and c at 2778.
Delete0 @ 2773.38, 1 @ 2789.79, 2 @ 2774.97, currently trying to form 3rd wave.
DeleteI thought 0 was 2800.18 and 2773.38 was a of triangle?
DeleteAm counting an impulse from todays low.
DeleteSee second chart.
DeleteWe had a lower degree triangle as 4 of 3. Is it unusual to have that followed by a larger degree 4th wave triangle or is it common?
ReplyDeleteSee second chart.
DeleteI have added a second chart of the day the ES 5-min. I'm just trying to follow Neely Guidelines. We'll see where it goes.
ReplyDeleteIn the ES 5-min chart, 2 is longer than 1 in 'time', 4 is longer than 3 in time, and also longer than 2. Waves 2 and 4 show 'alternation', so that likely means that (A) is the first true impulse of the day.
ReplyDeleteAnd the first (B) is the greatest retrace of the day, it 'must' be the higher degree wave. Further, the second (B) is much greater than 62%, tending to (not impossible, but tending to...) rule out a second wave at that location.
Now up over the green up fractal at 2,790.50.
DeleteJoe, do you have your original count as the alternate now? If we get a down wave ((B)) to ES 2725 there are plenty of room for a ((C)) up to 78.6, so it's still valid?
ReplyDeleteRemember the bit about wave 2 should not exceed 62% ??
DeleteYes but "what if" it's a B wave and not 2? DJI already exceeded 62% twice
DeleteCould be .. but if we had one diagonal down, another larger diagonal would be highly unlikely.
DeleteDo you mean a larger diagonal as a C wave down after B? Or an even larger diagonal to ath?
DeleteMan this is tricky. I seeing one possible downward count where (y) ended and we have an impulse down for 1 and a wxy up for 2.
ReplyDeleteI also see a continuing upward count if you count the down move this morning as a three and we have completed a and b of a 4th wave triangle.
...less easy to see the downward count in cash; but easier in the futures.
DeleteReally glad I didn't have the confidence to trade anything today!
Delete..because it doesn't 'look' like cash finished at the high.
Delete..internally today, cash did exceed 62% upward, after the low. Again, this is just measurement.
DeleteWell, I'n favoring the 4th wave triangle just because the down move off of the high just doesn't seem to have the velocity of a reversal.
Delete..and just fyi .. in cash .. up wave does not become longer in 'time' than down wave impulse until tomorrow.
DeleteRe: greater than 62% tetrace - I did notice that.
DeleteRe: not looking finished at the high - Agree
please be aware neely said he likes to count monthly bars and sometimes weekly. I found this very odd but if the reason is what I suspect I'd be very careful borrowing too much from his book of tricks.
ReplyDeleteI have found a number of his errors .. I am not using any that I consider to be his errors.
Deleteand unless you use all his wave patterns it may be difficult to adhere to the time requirements
DeleteNope .. the problem is a bit different than that.
Deletethe most interesting takeaway for me is waves should get larger after you have last wave of a degree and enter next wave ((2))nd wave (A) should be larger than (2) and (4) in ((1))).. I believe that is why he thinks elliot wave is very good at identifying major tops and bottoms
Deletethat why i am here
Deletethanks joe
Most excellent Mr. Marc!
DeleteLikely a 1, up at 14:30, and a "running flat" 2, longer in time, down to 15:50. If there is a wave 3 tomorrow, it should happen on a gap up.
ReplyDeleteHigher high in the after hours ..
Deletejoe, i am measuring, and i think its possible things are a bit different. try looking at this: 11/7 (A) 11/15 ((B), 11/16 (a), 11/23 (b), (c) of (C) for wave 2 then targets 2830 [(c)=2.618 of (a)]. (C)=.764*(A).
ReplyDeleteTimewise (B) and (C) take up 2X (A). thanks. The pattern has expanded flat which gives appearance of flatlike double zigzag.
If (w) is exceeded, what would be the functional difference?
Deletegood question my friend. functionally none (i guess), but perhaps more similar to other indexes which i think had b wave lows. no worries.
DeleteGreat post as well as comments today! I am still long and strong (albeit a trim). 2860 on the horizon
ReplyDeleteBack in 1940, Ralph Nelson Elliott said the following: “[1941] should mark the final correction of the 13-year pattern of defeatism. This termination will also mark the beginning of a new Supercycle wave (V), comparable in many respects with the long [advance] from 1857 to 1929. Supercycle (V) is not expected to culminate until about 2012.”
ReplyDeleteWill he be adjusting his view if he were alive today? Given the index is much higher today vs where it was in 2012?
its an 80 year forecast, it can be off by 8 years and still be as good as it gets...
DeleteCant argue with that for sure^^ But so are we all expecting the next GD to fall upon us? If so, is life and death more important than trading gains? GD will be scary
DeleteIf it was just a great depression, we'd be getting off lightly.
DeleteA Ukrainian scientist just presented her research, confirming we are heading into a Super Grand Solar Minimum, lasting 300-400 years. Life on earth will become incredibly tough, barely survivable for the vast majority of humanity.
Wow that’s interesting! That would also mean the properties in Hawaii, Arizona, Florida would be increasingly popular as folks migrate to warmer weather
DeleteReminds me of a story about a scientific conference in a large auditorium where the speaker professed the the earth would come to an end in 3 billion years. Frantically, a gentleman in the back of the auditorium jumped to his feet and shouted 'How many Years?" The speaker repeated, "3 billion". "Oh thank god", the man shouted. "I thought you said 3 Million"!
ReplyDeleteLooks like futures took out both of yesterdays lows in the overnight. So that invalidates the triangle as diagrammed on the futures charts. On the cash chart, I still see potential for triangle if it opens and holds 2777 this morning.
ReplyDeleteWas watching that last night as the futures fell and as you say the recovery leaves the cash triangle as a possibility. The decline off yesterdays open still bothers me as part of a triangle. It counts better as an impulse rather than a 3. 1 overlaps 4 by .33pts. The overlap is not there in the other indexes so am inclined to ignore it because of the small degree involved. Am still thinking about it being a of b of (y) with a wxy being b of b of (y). Will have to see how things work out. I don't have a very high trading confidence lever right here.
DeleteUnderstand, I have that initial low as 2773 as 1,A :) Just in case we start impulsing down. I am trying to stay aware that until 2816 is eclipsed - we are still in a nested bear (lower highs) position.
DeleteAgree and 1 of a makes more sense of my thought from a proportion standpoint. I was concerned that my a was very short in relation to (y). Thank you for that insight.
DeleteThank You Joe
ReplyDeleteOn the daily charts both the Dow and the SPX have registered indecision signals
ReplyDeleteLooks like a 'c' ended last night in the AH, putting a possible (iii) of a downward diagonal back on the table.
ReplyDeletewhat chart shoudl i look at to see
Deletethe c wave thats ending
and the downward diagonal
or can you give some terminal dates of waves -
i cant follow right now ....
thanks
Look at the 5-min cash chart in this post, and put the c on top of the last cash wave up at the end of the day. That would make it (ii) of the diagonal. Pitt_Tom and I were discussing the diagonal yesterday. This morning's lower low would be (iii); particularly if futures makes another lower low.
Deleteyes. then what is the (0) upper left represent?
ReplyDeleteThat's the big question, "a" of (y) or "c" of (y)? A little patience is needed here. The triangle is ambiguous as iv of 'a', or 'b' of (y). Welcome to the real world of correctly counted, valid alternates.
Deleteyes that where im at.
DeleteQuestion - Will you adhere to a neely wave 2 61.8 guideline when/if we get in the 2815/2830 region when it measures > .618 retracement? Thats wave 2 up from October high as (0) OR is it allowable as long as everything else measures correctly?
I measure this is as b or x wave and should be done by end of week at latest
DeleteDon't hear Neely's guideline incorrectly. He didn't say 62% is the absolute limit for a wave 2. He said, "as you get down lower, or up higher than 62%, then for every few percent, the risk begins to get exponentially lower that you are in a 2nd wave." So, 70% retrace gives about 85% chance of failing to make 2. 75% retrace gives about 90% chance of failing to make 2. And beyond 78%, then greater than 95% of failing to make 2, but never non-zero until > 100%. You see, 5% events happen quite frequently in the stock market. You can see that every time price crosses outside a daily Bollinger Band where the probability is only 5% that it will happen by random chance. Still still, I adhered to the guideline to call the (B) wave lower late in the day, and it was the correct call. It was "too deep for a 2 wave", so it was a (B) wave down, and labeled as so - almost in real time for everyone here.
Deleteyes - i understand. I recommend we drop the Neely references.
DeleteMuddy Waters
ReplyDeleteSo now that we have a possible downward count in progress the question in my mind is 2800.18 - Was it a of(y) or all of (y)
Same as above. But we need to see a potential diagonal form properly. Triangles and diagonals are 'potential' until they form correctly in every detail. We 'thought' there might be a triangle yesterday, the over-night invalidated the potential triangle's forming properly. Nothing one can do about it - gotta sleep sometime Lol.
Deleteyeah, what you said LOL. This an Abbot & Costello moment : Who's on First?
Deletelooks like this wave has 3 down with a triangle 4th and now working on 5 down which would validate 3 of the diagonal
ReplyDelete3 becomes greater 1 at 2765.83
DeleteWe've pushed on that level 4 times now.
DeleteCompletely agree, and there is the new futures low that allows the diagonal in the futures - as well as cash. Do you see how people can 'count the same' when they use the same rules. Awesome! Now, we have to see if wave (iv) occurs properly.
Deleteinvalidated - now a possible impulse
Deleteneeds stay above 2748 by 12:52 - could be done now.
Deletei think thats measurement
So you are thinking a zigzag 4 of a of (y) alternating with that goofy flat for 2 of (y) on 11-20 to 11-23?
Deleteno - i was talking about wave (v) of a downward diagonal. i may be missing something
Deletediagonal ends diagonal? thats my last post - till AH
Deletesee that in the futures but see 535 abc or 123 in cash.
DeleteET, can we be forming a triangle on ES daily for send wave with a @ 11/8, b @ 11/23, c @ 12/3 and currently forming d down ?
ReplyDeleteNope. Triangle after properly counted hourly diagonal is almost impossible. First there is a 90% wave in the 12/3 wave. Triangles almost always stop at 78%. Second, with a triangle after it's cousin pattern the diagonal, there would be very poor alternation.
DeleteGot it thnx.
DeleteWill be away for awhile. Have to get my pot roast in the oven by 1pm LOL
ReplyDeletemarket was waiting your pot roast to sell .. do we have a new barometer ;)
DeleteJust back to peek for a min. Tom's pot roast indicator -I like it. Will submit to the technical analysis committee. LOL
Deleteit is not Elliott but this is an exhaust gap
ReplyDeleteDid you mean 12/3 was an exhaustion gap, up?
Deleteyes, the gap on 12/3 is filled.
DeleteYes, that is a good technical observation. Elliott works best with good technical observations. Still was it the 'c' wave of (y) or 'a' wave of (y), and we are in 'b' now remains the question? If (y) ended on 12/3 it did so with a small truncation. Not a problem in my world, as I had written about how this upward wave 'must' be allowed to fail.
DeleteOn all three major indexes we have evening star formations on the daily charts. I would take this as an indication that minute (ii) is in.
Delete.. my opinion too, PT ... the timing works out really well, and other counts are now on 'the slope of hope'.
DeleteLet us not forget about expanding diagonal, Only a contracting diagonal invalidated.
ReplyDeleteDid we have the failure I wrote about over the weekend, as a "truncation high"? That is the question. Timing wise, we'd have wave (ii) as longer in time as (i), and a big-ole' fat failure for (ii).
ReplyDeletePot roast in the oven. Time for a rally.:)
ReplyDeletetom said pot roast again ! sell sell sell ;)
DeleteDraw a trend line down from the all-time-high through the 12/3 high; and see if a) price ever gets there again, and b) how does price react to the trend line.
ReplyDelete0 to 2. Shouldn't see that happen until minute (iv).
DeleteJoe are you planning any year end presents for us?
ReplyDeleteWe have a degree violation, now, as far as I can tell. That means that last night futures was the failure exit out of a triangle fourth wave. So, last night was the fifth wave truncation. It's really taking off to the down side now.
ReplyDeleteThird chart added to this post, to show the failure wave.
Deletetoo late..trains left station already...now we will should see a corrective rally soon for a 4th wave...INDU has hit 261.8 fib ext of 1 wave (25024) decline to complete wave 3 (using the 3m chart)
DeleteGranted. I admit I did not catch the failure 'in time' for the down wave. But what about for a second wave retracement? I'd like the count to be correct in the longer run. We still haven't made lower lows yet for either this move or the daily move.
Delete4th wave ongoing - trade/close below 2712/25100 and it's over
DeleteI hope, unlike EWI, that you can admit you were wrong. I'm glad I did my own research. Went long SPXS ($14,096) position yesterday. Would be happy to show you a screen shot but you don't allow that on your blog. If I had not done my own research I would not be sitting on a $1300 profit in a span of 24 hrs. Hochberg confirmed my thinking when he showed the impulsive decline on the INDU.
ReplyDeleteHi V .. wrong about what specifically? I said this weekend, that the (y) wave could fail? Right now I'm following the market as best I can from a cross-country train trip, and I not trading.
DeleteWhy is that you and EWI don't look at stocks and indexes and that give so much clues...I mean, just look at the RUT. It's a clear expanding diagonal to complete wave c of a flat. Look at AAPL and how it filled the gap between 19th and 20th Nov at $185 to complete wave 4. You've had a slightly bullish bias (imho) while EWI has been incredibly bearish.
DeleteLol.. you mean except in Precther's interim bulletin yesterday when he said he could not rule out new all time highs?
DeleteP.S. I am 'happy' for your profits and am not on any ego trip here. I'm literally on a train and on a train trip.
Precther has to cover back side so that he doesn't continue to lose subscribers. I'm curious to see how Hochberg is going to cover up his disastrous call for one more low (wave 5) on 30 year bond futures.I guarantee you, he'll never admit he was wrong.
DeleteRight. In bonds. The first wave is the extended wave. He doesn't care about degree at all.
DeleteExactly. I apologize for imparting my frustration on you but from what I'v seen, most ellioticians don't often admit when their wrong. Thank you for helping everyone out. I'm sure they all appreciate it.
DeleteNo problem. Let's see how we can help each other out in the future.
DeleteWow! V, lighten up a little. Everyone looks at different indicators. Sometimes one set works and another doesn't the next time it could be the other way around. Joe never ruled anything out, only considered all the logical probabilities and gave an opinion as to bias. No one here pounded there fist on the table and said get long.That's life man. The site is designed as an educational tool to improve our knowledge. This site is not and has never claimed to be a cutting edge trading site.
ReplyDeleteGlad about your trade and wish you well.
Thanks Pittsburgh Tom. RUT has also hit 261.8 fib ext to complete what looks like a wave 3 from 1553 high yesterday
Deleteyeah, 3 is done. my guess is we flop around in 4 and get 5 on Thur so I'm not gonna say that word again. LOL
Deletegot news for all of you. joe is providing insight not trading advice. 100% solid that he thinks major top is in and we are in a wave 2 rally. NO ONE knows what lies ahead. My opinion is the size of this down wave gives decent chance its now wave 3 down, but can also be only a b wave down. When others thought the sky was falling and in a potential 3rd wave down off october high Joe was clear that we should rally. AND he has had conviction and has been delivering important messages in real time. The worst anyone could have done is break even. One trade is a very foolish way to evaluate anyone, including our self. Just want to put things in perspective.
DeleteWell said PT!!!
ReplyDeleteA failure to break 2700 signals a near term bounce could unfold.
ReplyDeleteWe also have a potential death cross developing....
Right on about that possible death cross, Verne.
DeleteWhat is the significance of 2700?
DeleteMy own trading system monitors money flows around certain price pivots. I cannot give technical reasons for why it does such a good job of predicting price direction but it has worked remarkably well as a signal for short term market direction. I went long the last time we closed above 2700, and will enter trades depending on how price behaves at that pivot on the current move down.
DeleteI thought your initial 5 wave count was correct, I'm not sure why you changed it.
ReplyDeleteBeyond 5 = 0.618 (net i - iii).
Delete0.618 (net i-iii) + bottom of wave 4 gave a target of 2812 which the high of ES_F on Sunday.
DeleteRight. But cash is longer.
DeleteRUT well into the 5th...if you're a bear, that's the best index to trade. 5th might already be complete. Next tgt around 1475/1476. Anyways, get ready for a bullshit rally and then get those IWM puts ready.
ReplyDeletethinking this new low is 5 of 3 not 5. EWO does not support 5 and 4 did not challenge the o0 to two line
ReplyDelete0 to 2 line
DeleteBetter, P_T better!
DeleteI count 5 waves down from 1553 on the 3rd of Dec (#keepingitsimple)
ReplyDeletePS. - i see RSI divergence at 3rd of 3rd on 1min chart
PS. - i see RSI divergence FROM 3rd of 3rd on 1min chart
ReplyDeleteI was only referring to the current impulse that began at 3:35 pm yesterday on the SPX
ReplyDeleteUnderstood...my bad - wish i could post chart
ReplyDeleteYou can post a link to a free pic/chart service.
DeleteSent this to my clients on the 30th of November - see date
Deletehttps://imgur.com/iJGJsSQ
4TH DECEMBER - BULLSEYE!!!!!!!!
Deletehttps://imgur.com/a/f5s2tYb
your i in your 3 is longer in time and price than your 1. not allowed.
DeleteYou're right...i didn't bother to change that..water under the bridge...focused on making money, not being right.
DeleteJoe, while the RUT saw a failure for Wave c in FLAT, the SPX has seen a failure for wave C in zigzag...is that accurate? Wave B was 90% in the RUT but not in the SPX
ReplyDeleteYes. V, this is accurate.
ReplyDeleteSo, I heard all the chatter earlier about everyone's wave 'four'. How did that work out? Was it as long in 'time' as your wave three down? Because my measurements don't show so? Did it just 'fall part'? Was it as long 'in time' or longer than the supposed wave two? Look at today's candle. How do you think it will count when we look back at a daily chart? As three? or as (i) ?
ReplyDeleteNow when you see a failure in wave c of a flat, iv been thought to understand that the move in the opposite direction can be quite powerful. Then there is this reason that I'm focused on the RUT - On a more granular level, while SocGen is not too crazy about either the S&P or the Dow, it hates the Russell, which "would be of the worst performers in the event of a US political gridlock, as US small caps would not benefit from the potentially weaker USD."
ReplyDeleteFurthermore, whereas mega cap valuations have been within historical parameters, US small caps are now trading at high valuation ratios (trailing P/E ratio of 30.2x vs 20.9x for US large caps) and have near record leverage ratios (net debt to EBITDA of 3.1x vs 1.5x for US large caps).
Thus, US small caps are more at risk from the rising cost of debt (higher rates or higher credit spread – or both) and asset rotation (illiquid segment).
Joe, you are illuminating, this blog is for people that have no biases, people who sees the present and studies possibilities. I love the spirit without tradig, I love it's a scientific one in my opinion. In my humble opinion it is consistent as well. Is your youtube channel down ? I was used to look at it sometimes but I cannot find it no more..
ReplyDeleteJoe, I believe you’ve mentioned wave (v) of leading diagonals are not allowed to fail, while ending diagonals can fail. Is this correct?
ReplyDeleteIt’s quite important because the big health care etf that I’ve been talking about (XLV) did fail yesterday. If we can rule out a leading diagonal it might strengthen the case for your spx count minute 1, 2 and now 3 and not A, B, C, or at least an extended 5 wave imuplse down in C
Yep. I suspect whether a "C" or a "five" underway, it is likely going to exhibit "commodity like" behaviour to the donwside. Someone recently pointed out the utility of re-setting VIX B bands from 2.0 to 1.4 delta for reliable "sell" signals and it works beautifully for the declines we have seen this year. My position remains that the risk/parity trade based on a mindless shorting of volatility remains unwound,and until it is, Mr. Market is going to continue to ambush any trader chasing these manic upside runs. Unless and until we see a true VIX capitulation spike, I think we will not see a lasting bottom. Just my two pennies!
DeleteI like your 2 pennies!
DeleteYes. Leading diagonals are not allowed to fail. Only ending diagonals.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteThanks Joe!
DeleteJoe's Youtube videos are amazing. I used to watch during my lunch time...miss them a lot.
ReplyDeleteBought some IWM Dec 7th calls at 62 cents at the end of day...let's see, after today's monster day, I don't mind losing a couple of bucks..
ReplyDeleteGoing to place short after some upward movement. Maybe somewhere near 13 day ema.
Delete150 calls
ReplyDeleteJoe, these jokers at EWI have updated the theorist...btw, no mention of bonds in the STU
ReplyDeleteGosh one heck of a bunch of post! Well I skim down the post. Hard to trade and work a full time job! I wanted to pass along to everyone I've been reading Constance Brown works. Her composite indicator can be of use in finding 3 of 3 as well other divergences where RSI fails. I'll post a link below. I also notice a possible target of 2519 after some backing and filling. Keep me posted on the Tom's turkey indicator.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/script/qcmM1Ocn-Indicators-Constance-Brown-Composite-Index-RSI-Avgs/
*CHINA TO IMPLEMENT SPECIFIC ITEMS AGREED UPON MEETING ASAP *CHINA SAYS TRADE MEETING `VERY SUCCESSFUL' - PERFECT TIMING - I love EW and I love this market
Delete