Friday, December 21, 2018

HouseKeeping Rules - This Blog

Today's post is not about the market. It is about 'you'. One of the reasons I no longer run a web-site of any kind (other than this blog), and one of the reasons I no longer participate in any chat room is because of 'other people'.

Some people are very nice and are willing to see what it takes to count Elliott waves in real time or near real time. Other people only want 1) what they can get for free, or 2) to somehow prove that THEIR count is the one true count at the time.

Some 'good' people on this blog are willing to have a discussion, present a complete thought, and understand why some things follow the rules & why other things break the rules.

The bottom line is this: market participation is a voluntary thing. I don't make buy & sell recommendations, period. I have explained why numerous times. Participation in the comments of this blog is also a voluntary thing. But, it is your 'privilege' to be here; not your 'right'. If you can not conduct yourself with "all due respect" for the other people commenting, let alone me, then your account will be removed from this blog, and you will not be allowed to comment.

It seems odd to say this before the Holiday, but if people can not conduct themselves with some level of decorum, then the comments section will be permanently inactivated. (Those of you with good manners can plug your ears).

The ONLY thing I guarantee you on the blog is there will be short term patterns that don't play out. Most often those are triangles and diagonals - whose measurements must conform in every aspect. There will also be 'fifth wave failures' which may cause you and me to wait for a fourth wave that doesn't happen. There WILL be a flat which is misinterpreted as part of a "running triangle". These things will happen. That is the nature of wave counting. But, it is also true, that by following the rules such missteps will be short-lived in nature. That is also the nature of good wave counting.

If your wave count is so perfect, and doesn't break the rules, and never makes a mistake due to a potentially valid alternate, then you need to start your own wave counting service, and leave this blog for others.

But, most importantly, if you accuse me of doing something, and you are factually incorrect, then you have no place here. I only seek to help educate. If you can not accept that, then you don't belong here. By the nature of education, I can not during the span of a few market hours review everyone's chart who may want it reviewed, especially if they are short term charts. There are simply more of you than there are me.

So go easy people. Have a good holiday, and if you have been more a part of the problem than part of the solution, please consider changing your ways. If you have been a real help, with thoughtful and complete questions then accept my sincere thanks. You are the people that make this worthwhile.

Have a good weekend!
TraderJoe


43 comments:

  1. ET, Thanks for all that you have taught me over the years! You really have made trading a possibility for me. Interesting to note the comment section is a fractal pattern of my holidays at the in-laws.

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  2. Joe, I applaud you calling out and policing bad behavior . . . too few blogs do this, which is unfortunate, because than those who can't be civil ruin it for the rest.

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  3. I wish you a Merry Christmas Joe ... and thank you for every thing
    Regards
    AZ

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  4. Thank you for all you do Joe and I hope you have a wonderful Christmas!

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  5. Merry Christmas ET ! Look forward to continue learning from you.

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  6. Thanks joe. Be well this holiday season

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  7. thaks joe,well stated and needed.have a merry christmas. please keep helping us who appreciate your knowledge

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  8. Thanks Joe. I wish you a merry Christmas & happy new year!

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  9. Just had to pop in as well, to say Thank You Joe - I love seeing reading your comments and explanations! They are SOOO helpful - I've learned much from you! And may God bless you and your family especially this Christmas as you celebrate His birth together!
    (And I'm sorry that you had to write this letter...but glad you did.)

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  10. Thank you Joe. I subscribe to quite a few sites and go through many free blogs. Your analysis is on top of them. There is nothing about forecasting future that can be 100% accurate.
    Merry Christmas.

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  11. Joe, thank you and happy holidays!

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  12. Joe, you are doing a fantastic job! I would love to see a little more longterm charts:).

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  13. Many thanks to you Joe, I read you often and seldom comment but do appreciate all of your efforts. Merry Christmas

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  14. Hi Joe, Learnt a lot from your blog. Thank you very much! Merry Chritsmas!!

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  15. Thank you Joe. I really appreciate your willingness to freely give of your time and expertise. Have a very merry Christmas!

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  16. Hi Joe, it's good to put your site in order and not let yourself go.
    the undesirable you should be blocked
    Congratulations for your work. For me you are the best
    merry christmas joe
    de france dom

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  17. I don't really comment but read on a day to day basis. Thanks and Merry Christmas!

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  18. Hi, tom i'm carrying it over here.. while I too thought that to be true I think Joe was not ambiguous. little i and ii got to be less in both time and price little iii however can take on more in price and time than 1. there was comment here recently and also i stumbled upon this chart from the past.

    http://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2018/08/backing-and-filling-continues.html

    note the size of iii inside of 3 is more in price than 1. happy holidays.

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    1. speaking on the second chart in the link. it is of us dollar futures.

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    2. Gerald. You'll note the post-pattern behavior expected after that count did 'not' materialize. There was no 'big a-b-c down, after five up'. So that tells you that that count of iii of 3 was incorrect! Thanks for pointing it out.

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    3. Thanks for your words, Tom, and also Merry Christmas to you.
      I am happy to see that (at least in your view) nothing is macroscopically wrong. I follow your posts here and your conversations with Joe, so if he is #1, to me you are #2 :).
      Since I don't invest in the US market, and I invest only in stocks (where EWT itself may be difficult to apply, or even cannot be correctly applied) what I read here is only to learn "how to count waves".
      That's why all your posts (preferrably posted together with a link to a picture) help me to understand.

      I think the real test that must be done is with real historical data (and I hope that Joe takes time to do it).
      I mean... let's take S&P500 (or Dow Jones) from 1932 until today and see how this wave/subwave matter can be applied.

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    4. John and P_T: I am very sorry, but I had to remove your posts on wave degrees. Unfortunately, I had to do the same thing for Gerald. What is fair for him is fair for you (plural). The only reason they were taken down is that from my review they contained either inaccuracies or questions (or both), and I do not want readers to assume that I endorse such. I really apologize. I know you put a lot of hard work into them. But, if you will hold on soon I think you will find out how both Neely and Prechter have made some errors on this topic. Thanks otherwise for the Christmas greetings, and the same to you.

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    5. I agree Joe, I just finished reviewing some long term charts specifically your long term count in your 12-30-16 video and realized I was not correct in what I was putting forth and was about to post that fact.
      Thanks
      Tom

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    6. Degree violation = Mouth faster than brain! LOL

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    7. No problem Joe.
      Like Stephen King wrote "It is the Tale, not he who tells it"
      The important thing is to arrive at some good reasoning, and at that point comment it and find its flaws.
      Only in this way things go better.

      Happy Holidays again ;)

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    8. That was coincidental, Joe.

      I think your rationale has something to do if the count is nested. I think I am using that term correctly. We already have 1 2 and i ii so nested. iii of 3 is outside the nest. so like young bird it can fly? therefore, v of 3 can be > 1, as well. Said v of 3 and 1 relation can be found on that us dollar futures chart, too.

      happy holidays.

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  19. Glad to be here to learn EWT properly, after reading all the other theoretical books..
    Thanks a lot for your daily posts... just think that I pasted ALL your daily posts into two files and I printed them, so that I can read these two books at ease (like I am doing now during the holidays) before we can get your REAL book.
    This, for me, is your "Anthology" which I asked you by email one year ago :)
    If you want I can share them with all the other guys of this Blog, but I understand that what is contained there is your intellectual property (even if only copied and pasted from here) and if you like I can send them to you by email.
    Unfortunately I came here after the cleanup that, I read, was made on the Blog for some problems, and so I have only the posts that are present now in teh Blog and all the previous ones are lost.

    All that said, keep on with your posts and teaching (thanks for posting also charts in the comments), and Happy Holidays.
    Ad Astra per Aspera!

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  20. Joe, I appreciate your desire to run a tight ship here. This is your blog, so it is entirely up to you as to how you choose to run it. As followers of this site, we have to realize that you are not our servant. This is not a paid service at this time. There is no obligation on your part to respond to comments or to approve/disapprove of the analysis of others. It all comes back to basic decency and common sense. That said, when I read some of the stuff that's flung around on social media these days, I'm not surprised anymore. Sadly, it's easy to say whatever you want when you're hiding behind an online user profile and there's no accountability whatsoever.

    Anyhow, thanks again Joe for all you do to share your knowledge and wisdom with all of us. I hope you and your family have a safe and Merry Christmas!
    -Ryan

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  21. I agree with all of the positive comments above. Your blog is invaluable. Please remove the bad apples, not the Comments. Thank you, Joe, and Merry Christmas!

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  22. Joe thanks for all your hard work. Have a great holiday with your family.

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  23. Merry Christmas, Joe, and thank you for all you do!

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  24. Joe, While waiting for books to arrive, I've been reviewing the Neely video and the Eight Fold Path Method with respect to SPX's wave ((iii)). I may be wrong, but isn't it likely that this wave (allowing for some backing-and-filling) will probably take until approximately mid-January to complete? Thank you.

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    1. And when did I show it in this post? (Copy and paste link, if needed).

      http://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2018/12/proof-positive.html

      TJ.

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    2. Yep, OK. Thanks for replying and have a great holiday season!

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  25. Thanks for the suggestion. Have a Happy Holiday!

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  26. Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

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  27. Hello Joe. I wanted to take the time to let you know how much the majority of people here appreciate your work. I have been following you blog daily since I became a student of EWP 2 years ago. I have during that time subscribed to every major elliott service and have found them all to be inconsistent and subject to their own bias. You have taken my skills to a new level. Forget the noise and stay the course. Merry Christmas.

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  28. Have a great Holiday Joe...thanks for all of the superb content....just amazing

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  29. ET, I went back and reread the post which you supplied the link to at 2:38pm above. The part that really caught my eye were the sentences regarding "homework" and the weekly chart of the cash S & P 500. There are still open price gaps on the daily S & P 500 and New York Composite from earlier in 2018. Those gaps potentially being filled has stayed in the back of my mind. Is there a general guideline on which time frame is the most important regarding price gaps? From the weekly time frame there are none above, only below which may suggest the highs don't need to be revisited, at least from a price gap perspective. Very much appreciate all of your excellent effort on this blog. May you have much joy and peace!

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  30. Have a very Merry Christmas Joe and a Happy New Year!
    Paul

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