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| SPX 15-Minute - Down Channel Can Count as a "Five" |
This 15-minute down channel can be counted as a "five wave" sequence due to lack of overlaps, gaps in the third wave, and a fifth wave that equals the first. Today has the potential to breech the channel to the upside.
After close: the down channel did breech to the up side a little bit. But then prices made a new low. So I am posting this longer term chart after the close to keep the wave degrees correct. There have been no degree violations in this count that I can tell.
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| ES E-Mini S&P500 Futures - 2 Hr Chart - From the Minute ((ii)) Top |
From what I can see there is nothing bullish on the chart. If there is a five-wave up wave, it may only be to sub-minuette wave ii - if that didn't end already today. With the slightly lower low, it is possible that it is just the b:3 wave of a flat, but it doesn't have to be.
Have a good start to the day.
TraderJoe
Thank you Joe. This wave 3 is difficult to count internally, maybe for running corrections inside, and ewo does not help much this time. The yesterday last wave expanded makes ewo to mark maximum down momentum at the end.
ReplyDeleteEven it seemed me that 3 and 5 could be only the 3 (= 1 x 2.618) and that is missing a complex correction and the 5.
DeleteI think that is ruled out by the very large wave on Dec 17th. It is larger than any wave before it, and would seem to create a degree violation unless it is a fourth wave. You have to show your count so the degrees could be examined.
DeleteYou have reason. I've measured exactly and I had degree errors at the first 1-i for little but are ... :(
DeleteThanks Joe. I count only 88 bars in your impulse on the 15 min chart. According to the Eight-Fold Path Method for Counting an Impulse, aren't we supposed to use 120-160?
ReplyDeleteIf you can adjust the chart to 120 bars (p.e. 10 minutes chart) You will see the same ewo figure, but the 2 and the 4 peaks exceed a bit the zero line.
DeleteYea. This particular software doesn't allow 10 minute chart, as far as I can tell.
DeleteThanks 6Q. I am well aware of the fact that you get 132 bars on the 10 min chart, BUT you don't see any divergence on the EWO. Adding to that, it's confusing why Joe would use the 15 min chart if it didn't show you 120-160 bars.
DeleteYou will note that the EWO makes a new low on Joe's 5th wave shown above.
DeleteV .. having the low of the EWO at v often happens in the first wave impulse of a larger degree impulse. The fifteen minute time frame is quite short compared to daily/weekly.
DeleteThanks Joe. I'll keep this in mind but perhaps it would be prudent to include this "caveat" into your "The Eight-Fold Path Method for Counting an Impulse". You've mentioned to me that I shouldn't make "assumptions". Folks might assume that that divergence takes place in the first wave impulse of a larger degree impulse.
Deletejoe any chance 5 wave extension lower
ReplyDeleteCertainly not yet .. not with 'five waves up' in 5-min cash, and 30-min futures.
Deletewhen you have five waves up off a low, questions like that should only be asked if the five waves up fail, and there is a new lower low.
DeleteMarc, this might clarify what Joe is trying to say
Deletehttps://imgur.com/a/bx0Aqxu
I'm really trying to say something like this.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/9k230
Down wave consumes more 'time' than up wave, and is not even to 62% yet.
thanks - looks a lot different on futures...
Deletenot sure that is the 5 down that we will be counting in a week. The future will determine the past. lol. If future is much lower in a short time period then consider what present and past wave structure would have to look like as of now...
ReplyDeletejoe
ReplyDeletein case we head lower, consider (if even possible) we have had 3 down complete from Dec 12 and working on W4 which incidentally just attacked same trend line as lower degree W4?
No measurable evidence yet but am watching to see if we might get a b wave triangle off of this morning's up move.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteTriangle did not form properly. C>A in time. Perhaps a flat for b.
DeleteHeads up guys - 5 waves up on AAPL from 8.25PST
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/a/uXER9Be
AAPL & SPX - Like taking candy from a baby...almost too easy. Check out the links guys (How can you not love this market?)
ReplyDeleteAAPL - https://imgur.com/a/3t4j2i0
https://imgur.com/a/467b0Qf
SPX - https://imgur.com/a/yRAiw7I
KEEP IT SIMPLE - ONLY, IF AAPL CLOSES BELOW 164.85, MARKETS IN TROUBLE
ES 30-min below 50% correction; nearing 62%.
ReplyDeleteMY COUNT ON SPX - right on que Joe
Deletehttps://imgur.com/a/uQvZSLx
I was thinking the same thing but nao looking like a possible c failure at 12:20 5 min bars
Deleteclearest impulse is C. kick off to w5 down perhaps
DeleteMarket doing it's best to confuse things. Perhaps we remain in a pre Fed chop until tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteAll I have to do is say it and it becomes untrue. LOL
DeleteDeeper than 62%, likely a "B" wave of some type, or worse.
ReplyDeleteThose looking for a triangle 'might' get a 'pre-FED' triangle if the market can rally to 2,585 cash; as that would be a 78.6% retrace, upward, of the prior downward wave. Very, very little evidence for it yet.
ReplyDeletebig move down 1 min chart is possibly 3 of 3 of impulse.
ReplyDeletecan also count impulse done - 8 fold path
this is continuation i believe - only had 3 waves down this morning
Marc,
DeleteYou could be right but to me it makes more sense that 1 down ended yesterday at the low and we either had an abc 2 up with a failed c this morning or more likely we are still in a flat for 2 up. Not married to this just saying what my eyes see. LOL
ok
DeletePT we will measure later lol
Mr Market is in trouble...
ReplyDeleteAAPL looks like an impulsive decline - https://imgur.com/a/aalrP6s
sell the rallies
I love trading this overrated company!
Looks like yesterdays sell-off 5-3-5 (A) wave down looking for sideways (B) wave. Anybody else seeing that?
ReplyDeleteSee the pattern but 1-2 not a-b
DeleteLook at yesterdays wave down starting at 2601'ish and it ends at 2553'ish. It's also two waves down. Then consolidation for wave B and then another two waves down.
DeleteDon't know what time frame you are using but if you look at a 5 or 10 min chart the wave down from 2601 is 5 waves down to complete 5 of 1 from 2686.
DeleteIf you use a 1 or 2 minute chart you can see the waves better. Starts at 12:04 and ends at 2:06. It looks like a 5-3-5. then it goes sideways for a B wave and then another 5-3-5 down to new lows. I do see what your talking about in a 5 or 10 minute chart you can't distinguish the 5-3-5 waves.
DeleteNo Ronb it starts at 11:09
DeleteCorrection 11:10
DeleteAlso regarding your question below: There are no a-b-c's in a wave 5. abc's are only in waves 2 and 4.
PT thanks. Still learning the rules. Do you have a cheat sheet with all of these rules. I'm just starting and I've only been on this blog on a daily bases for the last few weeks. I can tell you've got a good handle on things. I appreciate the dialog.
DeleteRonb,
DeleteWelcome to the site. Great people here. If you have questions someone will always try to help. However you will never be able to pick up the foundations needed just by monitoring this site. You will be able to deepen your knowledge here but it is imperative that you read at least the first chapter of "Elliott Wave Principal" by Frost and Prechter.
Joe,
ReplyDeleteCould yesterdays wave down be an (A) wave and today is the (C) wave to complete wave 5?
by measurment
ReplyDeleteany lower and whole move from dec 2 is not a subwave i believe
using time as the restriction.
ReplyDeleteNot sure what you mean Marc. We are very probably in minute iii which is a sub wave of minor 1
ReplyDeleteI have no problem with sub-waves from Dec 2.
ReplyDeleteThis is all I see, so far. I'm using futures to insure every wave and price is included.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/9k5am
TJ
I like that count Joe!!! Wish there was a like button
Deleteno problem. I will wait until you post something with wave labels. Then we can have clear dialogue. Thanks
ReplyDeleteIt's above.
DeleteGuys check out the "potentially" bullish inverted head and shoulders pattern on the DJIA
Deletehttps://imgur.com/a/oI3uFeH
Nupe. Not buying that one. In a true H&S or IH&S, then the shoulders are about equal.
DeleteUnderstood, however, would you agree that we have had a "corrective" decline today?
DeleteAs a b:3 wave is - which may not be over yet.
Deletebut i think IF you ever move 5 waves down from this morning to this afternoon my issue may arise. There are no degree violations but by extending the wave to include todays session its possible that any subsequent decline in immediate future will run up against time restrictions if they are applicable (which I have no way of determining applicability based on our discussions)
ReplyDeleteii should not be longer in time than (ii); because i ended at the half-channel then ii is likely to maintain its degree.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteyes, eventually that is likely; but remember that wave minute ((ii)) was a 62% retracement. That is long enough to allow the extended third wave.
DeleteDon't miss the salient point: the lower (b) waves are bearish.
ReplyDeleteAgree, question now is that with the last minute fade did we end a running flat or will it complete to the upside.
DeleteWAIT a minute, lol, you may be more bearish on your count than me, i got to wait and see. Again, as always, i truly appreciate your kindness, sincerity, and efforts.
ReplyDeleteSeeing potential expanding diagonal on ES 15 mins chart, needs to take out 2517.25 low.
ReplyDeleteAdded the additional chart after the close.
ReplyDeleteThanks Joe for the updates. I am so bearish it hurts ^^
ReplyDeleteOk thanks.
ReplyDeleteJoe can you make sure i have this right?
wave (iii) will have 3 down subwaves (blue i,ii,iii)
which must be smaller than
black (i) from 12/3 to 12/10
if blue i gets extended to right it will take more time than black(i) is that violation?
also (iii) in its entirety must be less than down first 5 wave sequence from Oct (not pictured),
and
there is no reason to compare blue (i) in (1) to blue (1) in (iii).
appreciate any help here thanks
essentially correct.
DeleteThanks
Deletei meant blue (i,iii,V) in third line
ReplyDeleteQuick question. I watched the move down this afternoon on a 1min. It looked very much like a 5 wave move down. I could certainly be wrong on this, but the AO/Stoch seemed to show the "2" and "4" points quite nicely. If you see this as well, would not this negate being a "b" leg of a flat?
ReplyDeleteJust wasnt sure what this was. Thanks!!
or there is another leg to the b leg.
DeleteThanks! I pulled up a 45min chart of ES (130 bars). It looks as if the move up today was a w4, and the 5 waves down (retest of low) being a w5? The AO showed lowest peak on yest low, then moved just above 0 line for w4, and diverged on w5. At least it appeared that way to me. But, Im probably missing something.
DeleteThanks for taking time!
market is down 13% since the fed last hiked. I went back to the last cycle of hikes & the most market was down and they hiked was 7%.
ReplyDeleteFor Ronb,
ReplyDeleteWelcome to the site. Great people here. If you have questions someone will always try to help. However you will never be able to pick up the foundations needed just by monitoring this site. You will be able to deepen your knowledge here but it is imperative that you read at least the first chapter of "Elliott Wave Principal" by Frost and Prechter. to have any idea what's going on. You can finish the book at your leisure but without the first chapter you will be lost.
Joe are you considering diagonals instead of bear nest as alternative at any degree since oct high.. If so what would make it primary ?
ReplyDeleteNo. We had two already.
DeleteOk thanks.. Rest up... I read a bukk pundit that said he got cycle wrong so now just says 200week ma at 2350 and then resume 4 year up cycle... That tells me we wont see real capitulation for a while. Probably not for month or two in larger degree wave 3
DeleteHey guys! I'm feeling good with $MU down 9% post market
ReplyDeleteSold in July @ $53 after completion of impulse - https://imgur.com/a/2JvtnvG
Today at $31 - https://imgur.com/a/dWfAtdd
There are a few stocks still left at 52 week highs - I'm getting ready :-)
a of flat has been 95% retraced by c
ReplyDeleteAs of 11:30 AM ET, I have only three-waves up without degree violation; needs another high for five.
ReplyDeleteThe down wave starting at 3.49pm yesterday to 9.30 am today is greater than the one starting at 3.17pm and 3.29pm. Hence you counting that wave as 2nd wave ?
DeleteWhat time frame are u looking at ?
DeleteGood morning, How high can it go before a degree violation?
ReplyDeleteLess than (ii) from ES 2hr chart above.
DeleteNow into the fifth wave - right on schedule, and no surprise for the noon news on Wall $treet.
ReplyDeletePredictive.. predictive.
DeleteSo are you counting this as the "c' wave to finish up blue ii? Black, 3rd of 3rd starts very soon?
DeleteWhat time frame are u looking at ?
DeleteI'm going off the chart ET posted at the end of day, The 120 minute chart. Looks the fifth wave is almost finished.
DeleteThnx @I Love Popcorn.
Delete'Minimum' regular flat requirements met. Could go further.
ReplyDeleteHere is a link to the chart, with the "three waves without degree violation that predicted the fifth wave."
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/9ki-5
TJ
Thanks Joe!
DeleteThanks TJ....Nice clear picture on the DJI aswell. Trading that.
DeletePerfect Fib hit! https://imgur.com/a/FSU80BA
thnx ET.
DeleteThere would be a downward degree violation at 2,653.00 in cash.
ReplyDeleteu meant 2563 :P ?
DeleteI'm sure he did :-)
DeleteYes. Sorry for the transposition, and there is 2563 - so there is a change of degree downward of some type.
Deleteyes thanks
ReplyDeleteIF we go over the top again as in the FED release, might want to begin considering the five waves up as "a", this wave down as "b" of a diagonal. In no case may a diagonal break the lows. It's gonna be bumpy either way.
ReplyDeleteEntirely possible. We will find out very soon.
DeleteDid I just see that?
ReplyDeleteOver the top, and a deep 78% retrace, so far.
ReplyDeleteIF we go below the low, the only way to have avoided a degree violation at the top is with a triangle. IF not, could still be a diagonal. Always a real guessing game.
DeleteIs it possible that from 2530 we had a leading diagonal and then just now a second wave after the Fed announcement? That would imply a third wave up to follow
ReplyDeleteNot likely. Cash did not overlap for a diagonal, and futures ended on :5.
DeleteThis morning's top - ABx1.272=CD confluent with BC extension of 2.618.
ReplyDeleteMove down - .886 retrace confluent with CD extension of 1.272. (to this point).
After abc up, the move down reached 90% (hasnt yet violated prior low). Could this be the "b" of a flat?
DeleteJoe,
ReplyDeleteIs it possible to consider that we are having a complex wave 2 where the abc flat is a w and the downdraft after the Fed announcement is an x wave?
The a:3, b:3 c:5 pattern we were looking for was just confirmed. As Neely would say, "the expected post-pattern behavior occurred." The market just graded your paper with an A+.
DeleteThe low was just busted. Just use that triangle at the top to preserve degrees.
ReplyDeleteIt's diving, and busted the low again.
DeleteHere's an additional chart showing what I mean about "the triangle preserves the degree" in the up count. Just like the Minor 4 triangle. When have you seen bars this impulsive to the downside?
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/9kkh4
TJ
Nice, that helps.
Deletethat it beautiful joe
DeleteWe have broken down below the bottom of the down channel from the Oct 3 top on the daily chart. Isn't that a wave 3 signature?
ReplyDeletewhole move from 12/3 top can be done as 5 down
ReplyDeletethat would b 1 of 5 of 3 from top.
christmas rally for wave 2 of 5 of 3
Not without higher high days.
Deletecorrect we have no indication or measurement to say anything other than what you have shared at this point my friend
DeleteMinute (i) down is 336 points
Deleteyour sub minuette i of v is already 311 points.
While not technically a degree violation it is close enough to make one skeptical. Joe's primary count of 3 down so far from 12-3 is most likely the correct count.
And, can not be counted as five down in my book. Where is your 1.618 wave?
Delete4th wave triangle forming?
ReplyDeleteYou're reading my mind PT
Deleteb of 4 triangle?
DeleteI still can't believe it..bought 10 IWM 134 PUTS @ 2.61 this week...wish I could buy you guys a beer today.
ReplyDeleteV, I'm not trying to be rude here and perhaps it's not my place to mention but have you noticed that no one else here is posting trade information.
DeleteYou're right PT. I'm in a good mood. Apologies.
DeleteI'm glad you took what I said in the spirit it was intended and am also glad you had a good day. Joe has his reasons, but from a followers perspective, I used to be on another site and every one there chats about trades and all kind of other stuff. The only thing they don't discuss is Elliott wave. I enjoy the EWT perspectives of the followers here and would hate for the other stuff to creep in and be a distraction.
DeleteYes, I understand where you are coming from PT. Most Elliotticians that I'v come across are very temperamental but you seem like a nice man. My philosophy is simple. If I don't monetize my knowledge then this is a waste of time. At the end of the day, it's all about execution and risk management. I have learnt to do my own due diligence and not depend on anyone from their analysis and that's helped me a lot. You note that at 1.50pm yesterday, I said this , "KEEP IT SIMPLE - ONLY, IF AAPL CLOSES BELOW 164.85, MARKETS IN TROUBLE" - and as they say, the rest is history :-). PT, I have trade idea on a blue chip that I'm pretty confident on. IF you like, I would happy to share. "TO GET, YOU HAVE TO GIVE"
DeleteNot formed properly to be a 4th triangle but could b a of 4 up with another up move to complete c of 4
ReplyDeletesince 2 was a sharp 4 is more likely a flat.
DeleteI'll post up some charts from EWI's Wed STU in a lil bit, if Joe is OK with that
ReplyDeleteNo. Please do not post anything from any other site, or anything that is not original with you here.
DeleteFirst you need the permission of EWI. They warn at his documents that further distribution of his information are strictly prohibited.
DeleteUnderstood. I'm glad I checked.
ReplyDeleteA new post has been added for the next day.
ReplyDelete