This is the simplest of the Minor C waves to the Intermediate (Y) wave, upward. It only requires completion of the minute wave ((v)).
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| ES Futures - 8 Hr - Simplest Count |
It must be freely admitted that the exact location of minute ((iv)) wave could be disputed. It 'may be' an awkward triangle. And, in that event, the up wave may even be simpler. In either case, the completion of the up wave would likely best be confirmed by trading below the 4,120 level.
Have an excellent rest of the weekend.
TJ
Zoom out a bit and notice the ancient trendline from 2011 and 2014. Peak mania, we're so close, we run up and tag it? Then Maricopa breaks and we're dropped right into a CONUS crisis.
ReplyDeleteSPX (wkly/dly) - observations
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Continued good work. Keep it up. It always brings an interesting perspective.
DeleteTJ
AD line still peaking. This could go higher IMO
ReplyDeleteRemember ((v)) could equal ((i)) as a 'typical' wave. So, yes, it can have more to go.
DeleteCorrections are preceded by announcements. These markets don't juice themselves, they get their juice from the planners...we were nearing a major top before covid...all it's been since is covid markets covid markets. Everybody feels like they are getting left behind. True top on the way. Hopefully not war induced.
ReplyDeleteSee comment above about ((v)) = ((i)).
ReplyDeleteTJ
A/D Line vs Stocks above their 50ma - observation
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I agree. If you do see it in the A/D line also it could be a sizable correction. I’m looking for a top in the 4330 - 4440 range before we see a decent correction in July - September. ATB
DeleteAn aside - DJT index vs RBOB gasoline relationship. (and RSI vs Macd, a different aspect) [if interested] -
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Thoughts on utilizing a daily Opening Range (OR) for context. I would see this as similar in some respects to the use of pivots. [If interested] -
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GDX (daily/30min) Final post on utilizing OR (for longer TF moves) - [if interested]
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Sectors with RS (SPX) coming into this week -
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30min pre-open look - indecisive
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SPY (5min) possible inverted H&S - monitoring
ReplyDeleteGood afternoon all. I am thinking within the 8-hr count, above, we must allow the hourly count below.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/ur4pg
It doesn't 'have to' form, but it has a good probability of forming to finish the up wave. The EMA-34 currently goes through each numbered wave, and the EWO is below the zero line.
This count would be most likely if minute ((iv)) was 'not' a triangle.
TJ
Also, if the fourth wave, iv, forms a flat or expanded flat, then a trip over last night's high is possible.
DeleteTJ
SPY (5min) close up look -
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Morning low exceeded.
DeleteHas now reached Friday's OR midline/200ma. Testing 20 level on RSI.
DeleteWe have reached the 1.618 ext retrace of rally from this morning's low. The 2.00 measure would be confluent with Friday's OR lower boundary.
DeleteSPY (5min) update -
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Note that from 1st pb, price has yet to close above Tline.
DeleteFriday's low on ES-mini has been exceeded.
ReplyDeleteWatch for overlap or not on ES 4,180.
ReplyDeleteSPY (5min) final -
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A new post is started for the next day.
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