Primary Week

Almost a year ago, on June 6th, 2020, in a post called Trillions (available at this LINK), I said it was highly likely that because of the lengths of various wave structures, we were now in a Primary ((B)) wave higher. I said, it was likely that we could go over the high. We did. And, when questioned, I said it was very possible for this Primary ((B)) wave up to also consume more time than the prior Intermediate (B) wave up to the high in 2020. This is Primary week. This week we have wave equality in time with that prior upward Intermediate (B) wave. See the weekly ES chart, below.

ES Futures - 1 Wk - Wave Equality in Time

As of this week, there is no clear sign of a top. Last week's low would need to be exceeded first. And there are still at least three good ways for this up trend to continue.

Why is recognition of Primary Week important? Unlike many professional and casual Elliott Analysts, and even several money managers, recognition of how long Primary ((B)) could last has prevented me from prematurely calling for the big crash. I was looking for corrections only, and they have been real stinkers at that! Yet, others have called at many turns for the crash! So, what are the three ways the trend could continue?

1. We can be in the fifth wave, minute ((v)) of Minor C of Intermediate (Y), now. Such a wave could truncate near the high.
   
2. We can still be in the minute ((iv)) wave - such as in a larger triangle - of Minor C of Intermediate (Y). Such a triangle could run for days, yet.
3. We can have finished Intermediate (Y), higher, and can be starting another Intermediate (X) wave. But, for this last option, we need to take out last week's low, first.

In last week's decline, some of the sentiment indicators backed off from being a tad over-heated. This week, we are traveling somewhat sideways. Recently, the NYSE advance-decline line made a new high. So there are still indications they can push this wave farther in time. Few analysts pay attention to time and what it might mean in the wave count. We hope this documented demonstration shows some of the value of doing so.

We are still taking it slowly. We are being flexible and patient and counting waves until we see the set of circumstances that looks like it spells trouble. Stay tuned.

Have a good start to the evening.

TraderJoe