During the day, I said I would have a look after the close to see whether there was anything that rules out this down wave as being a (c) rule of minute ((iv)). Have a look at the chart below, and I'll explain why degree labeling tends to but does not completely rule out a longer minute fourth wave in time.
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| ES Futures - 8 Hr - 'Probably' Completed |
If you look at the length in time of the minute ((i)) wave on the right, you see it is 28 bars (8 hrs per candle). So, on the right, giving the up wave a longer in time (a) to (b) wave as the longest (a), and the shortest (b) wave possible, then you see that sequence is longer in time to minuet (b) than all of minute ((i)) took to form. This would tend to rule out the longer minute ((iv)) wave based on degree labeling. The new wave (b) location and minute ((i)) are in the same direction, so to preserve the definition of the degrees, then minuet (b) should not become longer than a minute wave in the same direction.
The only caveat is that the immediately preceding minute ((iii)) wave is a lot longer in price and time. Yet, if one would allow a (b) wave to become as long in time as a minute ((iii)) wave, then that would seem to grossly distort the common wave shape and not provide a wave with the right look.
The result is likely that it rules out the new wave ((iv)) location at today's low with about 80% or greater probability. There isn't much data developed yet on comparing expanded flat (b) waves to their first or third waves, however, this line of reasoning seems valid. We won't know for sure unless or until there is a retrace wave that does not go over the top again. But, based on this reasoning, there is a good shot at it.
Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
Thank Joe. What do you think about the following count?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/TFphZhS1/
Plausible.
DeleteI'm still learning as well but poking holes in the interest of learning.
DeleteHow did you go about determining that your wave (1) starts where it does? Whatever the rationale, the preceding corrective wave is shorter than your wave (2) which might be a degree violation.
Just focusing on the wave (3) impulse, if charted with approx 150 candles to completion of 5 doesn't pass the 8 Fold Path of counting an impulse. The Elliott Oscillator doesn't look right for wave 4 of (3). That wave also doesn't show good alternation to wave 2 of (3).
TJ..go back to the second chart posted yesterday (close only). Minute ((ii)) is definitely shorter in time than Minor B. It is also shorter in total price excursion (max travel).
DeleteTJ
So, if (Y) of larger B has indeed completed, at a minimum, larger C down should take out the low of (X)?
ReplyDeleteThanks
Thx TJ, it's been a difficult count since 2018 but your discipline to maintain previously establish labels and honor the rules/constraints are remarkable! Most other experts I see are seemingly practicing wave slapping and full of retroactive revisions.
ReplyDeleteThat said, if I'm reading the this right, the wave C of (Y) is essentially complete and this week, we may have marked the high for many, many years to come as Supercycle IV plays out (?). The count will continue to remain tough during this period, but do you expect Primary ((C)) to be an impulse or an ABC form making the largest triangle we've ever seen?
Thx
Because there is possibly more 'tine' in Primary ((B)), up, I am not yet suggesting that C of (Y) ends the Primary ((B)) wave, up.
DeleteHi Joe. I was just going to ask if there is a possibility of another X wave. I don't mean to put the cart before the horse since we don't know yet definitively that (Y) has ended per your odds yesterday, but if it has would an ensuing (X) wave find support at previous b low around 3750ish? With all the leverage out there a 10% correction would be extremely painful. Thanks.
Delete@Andrew .. yes, I have stated before there is a 'possibility' of another (X) wave out there. Triple zigzags are relatively rare, but the NYSE adv/dec line only made a recent all-time high in May of this year. So, there could be an up wave that diverges with it. It's largely all probabilities from here.
DeleteThanks Joe. But I don't understand the degree argument. For instance, in above chart 'c' of (b) is larger in time than both (d) and ((v)) in the same direction.
ReplyDeleteAs I said in Feb 2018, when I expected a triangle for the Minor 4 wave of Intermediate (5), and Primary ((5)), the only structure that can correct for degree relationships is the triangle. Those waves are within a triangle, if I understand your question correctly. A triangle can do it because measurements are to the the (e) wave.
Delete4hr early look -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3c2PP.png
New low made.
DeleteThank you Joe, and after the bad news it looks like the new low could be the B of a flat, so, it would confirm the bearish outlook.
ReplyDeleteSPY has taken out yesterday's low.
ReplyDeleteGetting positive divergences now after what looks like 5 waves down.
DeleteSPY 1-Day .. just be aware SPY is down to the lower daily wedge line, as below.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/RB58BJrC/
TJ
Looking for turn here on SPY (5min)
ReplyDeleteSPY 5min -
Deletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3c2VV.png
Now looking for possible kiss following cross.
Delete(just fyi) .. today's NYSE A/D is 652 / 2,616 or roughly 1:4; while closer to the impulse range, it still does not indicate the typical 'kick-off' of 1:9 or 1:10 type-of-day, yet.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Thank You TJ for your patient guidance.
ReplyDeleteWithout a dramatic turnaround, it looks like today will mark 3 black crows and with new 52 week highs in the NYSE (552 on 5/7 and 713 on 5/10) we may have had the last short squeeze for a while.
SPY 5min update -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3c2XY.png
SPX - getting close to 50 dma - 4050
DeleteQ’s looks like it’s going back to 300 or below.
DeleteI see it didnt make it up to test resistance. Ouch.
DeleteES 5-min: there is pretty good alternation in this section, even though there is not 120 candles.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/use7u
More on the larger picture later.
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDelete