Friday, May 21, 2021

Hammer Plus - 2

Today's prices made a higher over the previous local highs. Then prices fell back to the 18-day SMA the line in the sand.


While better triangle proportions were made today, with the up wave now at 75% of the down wave, a triangle is not a sure thing.  As we have said, it could fail. 

The swing-line turned up today, but prices settled below the 18-day SMA which means an up trend is not in force either.  For the shorter term, we indicated that on the ES 30-min chart, a continuation of the channel count can not be ruled out yet.

ES Futures - 30 min - Channel

A fourth wave of the channel count can not be ruled out yet because, with about 106 candles on the chart, and following The Eight-Fold Path Method for Counting an Impulse, the EWO is still well within fourth wave parameters. Further, the retrace of the entire third wave is very shallow at only 23.6%. We have indicated the alternate the high might have been seen this morning, but there is nothing definitive. We remain patient, calm and flexible to see if anything is resolved in the overnight session Sunday or on Monday.

Have an excellent start to the weekend.

TraderJoe

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25 comments:

  1. SuperdaveMay 21, 2021 at 6:05 PM

    Here's a chart of the Russell futures, which, if anything, is very supportive of the triangle idea. 3rd wave up or 3rd wave down? - answer = neither! Lazy price action for a while until the triangle resolves - probably to the upside. I could imagine this whole pandemic wave dragging out until Sept or October with 4 and 5th waves of different degrees.

    ReplyDelete
  2. SuperdaveMay 21, 2021 at 6:06 PM

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/NHmYBVH2/

    ReplyDelete
  3. GreywaverMay 22, 2021 at 8:14 AM

    SPX (dly) observations -

    https://funkyimg.com/i/3c6Kt.png

    ReplyDelete
  4. GreywaverMay 22, 2021 at 9:04 AM

    DXY (dly) observations -

    https://funkyimg.com/i/3c6KV.png

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. GreywaverMay 22, 2021 at 9:44 AM

      So, we have decreasing mo in the SPX, and increasing mo in the Dollar. Will price reflect the same going forward?

      Delete
  5. GreywaverMay 22, 2021 at 1:12 PM

    TLT (dly) Movin' on up?

    https://funkyimg.com/i/3c6PC.png

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. philMay 23, 2021 at 12:18 PM

      TMI

      macd is below zero line is all you need to know

      forget about longs until that changes

      Delete
  6. GreywaverMay 22, 2021 at 7:09 PM

    Sectors (dly) [if interested] -

    https://funkyimg.com/i/3c6TW.png

    ReplyDelete
  7. GreywaverMay 23, 2021 at 11:53 AM

    SPY/XLU (wkly) - RORO -

    https://funkyimg.com/i/3c7ae.png

    ReplyDelete
  8. Elliott_TraderMay 23, 2021 at 6:49 PM

    Good evening all. This five-minute pattern is plausible. But, of course, we do not 'know' it will occur. Gap direction was needed. The gap 'could be' in a third wave, as shown.

    https://invst.ly/uwwh-

    Right now iii = 0.618 x i; and there is upward overlap. Wave iv should not go over 4,160.

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. manuMay 23, 2021 at 9:48 PM

      Thanks but I am confused.

      Es is over 4160

      Delete
  9. Elliott_TraderMay 23, 2021 at 10:38 PM

    Because 4,160 has been exceeded higher there are still two possibilities:

    wave iv is a complex, which would provide a fifth wave up within the triangle.

    or, there is a wave down, and now a flat correction.

    All options still open; "no man's land".
    TJ

    ReplyDelete
  10. GreywaverMay 23, 2021 at 10:42 PM

    5min - could be wrong -

    https://funkyimg.com/i/3c7n9.png

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. GreywaverMay 23, 2021 at 11:54 PM

      Looks like a bust. At least the reg. hidden div worked out, lol. Probably should stick to reading RSI instead. :o)

      Delete
  11. GreywaverMay 24, 2021 at 12:57 AM

    5min last look tonight -

    https://funkyimg.com/i/3c7o5.png

    ReplyDelete
  12. GreywaverMay 24, 2021 at 8:12 AM

    4hr, bigger picture look -

    https://funkyimg.com/i/3c7uk.png

    ReplyDelete
  13. Elliott_TraderMay 24, 2021 at 10:01 AM

    Good morning all.

    ES 30-min; there the new high for a fifth wave in-progress; can try to make 78%.

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. manuMay 24, 2021 at 10:39 AM

      Thanks TJ.

      Whats the longer term chart. Are we taking out all time highs or are we still in no man's land ?

      Delete
    2. Elliott_TraderMay 24, 2021 at 11:27 AM

      Please stop with the constant questioning, and look back to May 17th and May 18th posts. And try to stay current. If we are in a triangle, then the all-time highs should eventually be taken out.

      May 17th -
      http://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2021/05/primary-week.html

      May 18th -
      http://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2021/05/nq-100-interim-report.html

      TJ

      Delete
  14. Elliott_TraderMay 24, 2021 at 1:13 PM

    ES 2-hr; here is that 78.6% retrace potential (slightly exceeded), and the triangle potential.

    https://invst.ly/ux90m

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
  15. GreywaverMay 24, 2021 at 1:39 PM

    SPY (15min) (roughly equivalent to futures hrly) -

    https://funkyimg.com/i/3c7Ap.png

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. GreywaverMay 24, 2021 at 2:31 PM

      Very small candles and indicators flatlined. Something's coming. :o)

      Delete
  16. Elliott_TraderMay 24, 2021 at 3:36 PM

    ES 15-min: the overnight was ugly and this may be another x((1)) count, extended wave one count. ALT is still in a longer-time wave ((4)) on this scale.

    https://invst.ly/uxadf

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
  17. fibonacci.May 24, 2021 at 4:16 PM

    On a 120 min chart overnight and this am action looks like 1-2,1-2

    ReplyDelete

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