I have not done too much wave counting on the NASDAQ 100 index for a couple of reasons: 1) it has a much different birth date than the Dow Jones Industrial Average. 2) It used to represent a 'fairly' narrow segment of the economy, with the dot-com's and high-tech names. In some ways, however, that sector has become more a prominent one, particularly during the pandemic. Therefore, I had another look at this chart from a fresh perspective.
For this index, and this one only, I would not argue if one wanted to count the rise as follows.
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| NQ Futures - 2 Day Close Only - Possible Diagonal |
This count suggests that a diagonal is in progress. The overlaps in this index, unlike those in other indexes allow such a count. The count suggests that a fifth wave up, to a marginal higher high, or a fifth wave up as a slight truncation would complete such a count.
The zigzags in this count are actually supportive of the zigzags being counted in the S&P500, although the end meaning may be much different. The EMA-34 also seems to support the count, with each significant numbered wave on either side of it. The MACD - as well - with it's continual divergent highs is also supportive.
The fact that a new high is possible, or a near new-high is possible, is also supportive of trying to end the Intermediate (Y) wave in the S&P500 index, as well.
P.S. I have not seen this count anywhere else. I don't subscribe to any EW publications, and there are few, if any, EW sites I trust. As far as I know, this count was developed entirely independently.
Have an excellent day.
TraderJoe
NDX can be counted as a completed contracting ED as well.
ReplyDeleteYour A becomes 1
Move B to the left at the lower low and it becomes 2
(1) becomes 3
(2) becomes 4
(3) becomes 5
1>3>5
2>4
4 overlaps 1
yes, although technically possible, it doesn't have much of the 'right look' as those trend lines are basically parallel.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/r04AXVRG/
Like I said, I won't argue. There is the 'possibility', not the certainty, of a higher high.
TJ
Yeah, it doesn't look right because the supposed 2nd wave had such a shallow retrace. The math works though.
DeleteI looked at both counts and on a weekly chart the AO is showing a triple divergence. In William's 2nd book on page 182-183 he says (Paraphrasing) if it doesn't turn on a double divergence it will most likely turn on a triple. Most market tend to turn on a double divergence. Even more rare is a quadruple which you'll see once or twice a year.
DeleteI had to look closer I show divergences week of 19 OCT 20, 16FEB and 3 MAY. On first inspection I didn't notice 19th OCT is Higher
Interesting! Smash of 4153.75 in SPX cash negated attempt to hammer a low. 4100 next it would seem next battle ground.
ReplyDeleteI have seen a few analysts that have ALL the indices in a fourth wave of some kind.
ReplyDeleteThanks TJ ! Would be looking at B (min) for move down after completion if thinking correctly.
ReplyDeleteSPX cash (15min) -
https://funkyimg.com/i/3c5gP.png
SPY 15-min cash; the previous down (red) fractal was broken lower. Hard to get too excited about it when the retrace in cash is still less than 32.8%.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Vj1VY1n1/
TJ
For those who employ comparative relative strength (CRS), here's a way to get two perspectives - [if interested]
ReplyDeleteXHB (wkly) -
https://funkyimg.com/i/3c5h9.png
SPX (15min) e.o.d. recap -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3c5hE.png
SPY 15-min; well now things are getting a bit more whippy. Might still be a sign of a triangle, but doesn't have to be. "No one's land", very akin to The Fourth Wave Conundrum, and may, in fact, be such.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/uuuqv
TJ
..PS, note the location of the 'close-to-open' gap; not the close-to-high gap as shown by the red circle in cash.
DeleteThat was a kicker candle pattern. :o)
DeleteIWM looks about ready
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_4d4c73f5d19e0dfc0f96734166a5557d.png
Roberto .. just bear in mind (IWM, RTY futures) can 'still' be in a larger triangle. Maybe waiting on infrastructure bill or something. I'm not bullish .. just neutral. Neely points out how large 'B' waves can also 'end' in triangles.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/jsyw5I8Z/
TJ
True, bear goggles now taken off. Thank you!
DeleteCould also be a H&SS in progress. :o)
DeleteTomorrow is a BIG 13 year Fibo cycle from the major May 19, 2008 High.
ReplyDelete..nice.
DeleteThe $DAX topped in the last 24 hours and the Nikkei topped on February 16,Bitcoin May 8th.
ReplyDeleteNow all asset classes are in gear to the downside. Could be wrong,but if I'm right this decline should squash any doubt. BTW why is the markets been all 3's....that ended today.
As expected, "they" are buying 4100 in ES. A failure there would imho be significant...
ReplyDeleteBTC (wkly) just checking in to see what condition its condition is in.
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3c5oE.png
That thing is gonna blow up some hedge funds who have been happily buying those dips above 50k, on leverage I assume.
DeleteI hate BTC, but if it goes back to 20000, I’d be tempted.
Deletecertainly will buy that for a bounce
DeleteLOL GW, love the rock and roll tone.
DeleteIf there was another syllable, the Beetles could have played... Tulip fields forever!
Your chart looks like BA a year ago - possible prelude for AAPL, AMZN? Once the margin desks take over we'll see that ballistic is not one way.
See the story on block chain in the next day's post.
DeleteTJ
Role reversals? Futures made a new high overnight and cash did not. Will cash tomorrorw forego a new low? Interesting price action.
ReplyDeleteYet another attempt to "hammer" a bottom at 4105.12. If the bears take it out. I think 4100 goes with gusto...
ReplyDeleteEarly look at the hrly -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3c5Be.png
👍 stopped out yesterday. Glad I had a stops in place. Bought a few tacos on TT with it, lol.
DeleteHi TJ
ReplyDeleteBelow what level you think a triangle will be invalid ? 4040? 4000?
Good morning all. Here is the ES 30-min intraday wave-counting screen with updated daily pivot points (classic calculation) and local fractals.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/JTjtWqzt/
Price is already down to support S2.
TJ
Just fyi - price is down to a level of 78.6% of the prior up trend, and in conjunction 2.62 x a, if the downward is a Neely-style 'elongated flat'. In addition, price is at the S2 support level.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/xsj6w2XJ/
The analysis suggests that, if there is not a strong rebound off of 4,060, then the bottom might be taken out.
TJ
There is ES 4,060 in a 30-min outside range-bar down. Let's see if the bar can 'flip' to an outside range-bar, up. If not, it would be another warning.
DeleteTJ
Cash has virtually filled kicker gap from 12th.
ReplyDeleteCorrection: opening kicker on 13th.
DeleteCash 5min looks like working on a bounce.
DeleteBTC bounced @ 4th of lesser degree I believe.
ReplyDeleteFunnier than Hell if the big money are the bag holders.
ReplyDeletemargin calls coming by friday for sure. I expect it will affect the general markets and then the US gov't will start thinking seriously along the lines of the recent China announcements on crypto.
DeleteClose up look at cash 5min -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3c5Fi.png
Now working on inverted H&S on price (close only). Watching for possible neckline break (5min)
DeleteES 30-min (info only) .. four closes over 4,060 and now a higher high candle. Very, very whippy.
ReplyDeleteTJ
ES 30-min; price back to intraday 18-per SMA.
DeleteTJ
ES 30-min; there is now a down (red) fractal at the low.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Y1kuphQn/
I have put a wave counting stop there to indicate that those earlier Fib ratios would be defeated below that level.
TJ
Johnny
ReplyDeleteI also think it's possible that some of the cryptos may be a tool, by design or accident, for the Central Banks to soak up a good portion of the liquidity they created.
SPX (5min) update to prior post -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3c5GZ.png
ES 5-min; possible five-waves-up to S1 daily Pivot point.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/uva47
TJ
Current 15min cash -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3c5Hq.png
ES 5-min; now can be seen as a truncation low, and wedge five-waves-up. (5) should be smaller than (3).
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/uvavi
TJ
An aside - thoughts on current sector map status - [if interested]
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3c5Hz.png
ES 5-min, here's the retrace levels on the five-waves-up. Currently 50%, and enough for an extended wave three at some point - if the low is not exceeded first.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/uvbh5
TJ
Nice declining peaks on histo, concurring with extended 1st wave 5 waves up.
Delete(Just fyi) - from CNBC - moments ago.
ReplyDeleteFord to halt production of F-150, Bronco Sport and other vehicles due to chip shortage
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/19/ford-to-halt-production-of-f-150-bronco-sport-due-to-chip-shortage.html
As everybody can see the "panic" has started. The Fed "put" will be responsible for the greatest bear market in history.
ReplyDeleteprove it
DeleteGreywaver, Would you mind sharing the specs that you use for your indicators on your graphs?
ReplyDeleteThe Tradingview or ProRealTime charts? (have a particular one you can reference?)
DeleteThe one you were using the Weinstein Methodology on.
DeleteThx
ES 5-min: 'possibility of a Flat wave' to extend the correction in time.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/uvc98
Doesn't have to be, but we're dealing with 'odds' here.
TJ
VIX gap at 21.45 important. Any unfolding impulse up "should" decisively close it, imho.
ReplyDeleteES 5-min; with the higher high; a tentative channel can be drawn, upward. It is tentative because there 'are' ways to extend the correction in more time, yet. It might allow a redraw of the channel, down to the 62-78% retrace level of the up wave. This does 'not' need to happen. It 'might' with some overnight news.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/uvcqb
Otherwise, if they gap up tomorrow, possibly expect continuing triangle count.
TJ
See the story on block chain in the next day's post.
ReplyDeleteTJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDelete