Monday, June 24, 2019

Watch Hourly Trend Channel Closely - 2

In Sunday's post, we suggested that the lower boundary of the hourly channel on the S&P500 cash index be watched closely to see if it held or not. Today, that trend channel was breached lower with more than two hourly candles. The updated chart is below.

S&P500 Cash Index - Hourly - Trend Channel and Divergence

At some point, we will expect the downward move to become more impulsive. The hourly Elliott Wave Oscillator, above, is still diverging from the high and trending downward.

With 136 candles on the chart, below, and in reference to the Elliott Wave Oscillator, there is nothing at all wrong with a count of the type below on the 5-min time scale.

S&P500 Cash Index - 5 Min - Five Small Degree Waves Down

Wave ((5)) is shorter in price and time than wave ((3)), which is shorter in price and time than wave ((1)); wave ((4)) is shorter in price and time than wave ((2)), wave ((4)) overlaps wave ((1)) without going beyond the end of wave ((2)), and they can all be counted as zigzag sequences - albeit the c wave of ((2)) has a very slight truncation.

The five waves down should be respected until there is a clear reason not too. There could be a retrace - even a substantial one - at any time.

Have a good start to the evening and to the week.
TraderJoe

10 comments:

  1. futures need a new low i guess - maybe we get that tonight then bot cash and futures realign for a retrace?

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  2. Maybe an alternate? Because C is so extremely weak relative to A we might need to move the trendlines

    https://i.imgur.com/pOCYsik.png

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    1. As I've said, since the first wave of ((a)) is a Leading Diagonal, it is 'less likely', not impossible, for the first wave of ((c)) to be the same structure.

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  3. I don't know much about EW, but what I am seeing is price consolidation of recent move higher...I expect the turn after we top will be sharp, not meandering...I of course could be incorrect....

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  4. Wow, every one except Joe was predicting that we were going to see higher prices. But he was correct, and the market followed his call even when the pattern hardly looked like it was going in that direction and that is the mark of a true EW expert.
    In many years, I have tried hard to count EW but I guess that is a skill that cannot be mastered by anyone.
    Kudos.

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    1. Thx SVS. See tomorrow's post when it comes up.

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  5. A new post has been started for the next day.

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  6. The support shelf at around 2920 held...bears not out of the woods yet, imho...! :)

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