Wednesday, June 19, 2019

Easy to get lost

I know it is easy to get lost in the wave count, so I have put the current move in context in the daily chart, below. Whether new highs are made or not, the count suggests the December lows will eventually still be revisited.

ES E-Mini S&P Futures - Daily - Count from Dec Low

The count from the December 24th bottom remains unchanged. Upward price movement since June has already attained greater than 78.6% of the prior high, so even in the event the upward wave should fail - which there is no sign of yet - it would still be considered the Z wave. Notice the time similarity in the X waves. The Intermediate (B) wave has already done what is required by wave theory to do - that is attain 90% of the October 2018 high. That occurred with the new all-time-high in the SP500 at Y. Further up movement is just icing on the cake for the (B) wave, and it could - but does not have to - go to 138.2% of Intermediate (A).

There is an alt: (b) on the chart only in the event that the channel below does not hold.

ES E-mini S&P Futures - 4hr - Up Channel

A channel like this should hold for a zigzag, provided the (b) wave is properly located. Yesterday's large up move suggests that it is, but just be aware that if the channel begins to break sideways, the (b) wave could go on to form a larger triangle or flat to take up more time versus the (a) wave.

Have a good start to the day.


  1. Thanks Joe... always nice to have big picture as well

  2. thank you joe
    what is the objective of phase B?
    and compared to fibonacci
    thank you so much

    1. The most common objectives in order, are ..

      first (c) = 62% x (a)
      second (c) = (a)
      third (c) < 1.618 x (a)

  3. is there a degree violation on the amount of time ii is currenlty taking versus w x or y? i dont think so but if so its telling

  4. A new post has been started for the next day.