On Friday, I showed a potential downward count. While it has not materialized yet, it certainly does have the possibility of doing so. Because of my commitment to show a logical alternate when it presents itself, please consider this Pre-FED triangle as the likely best alternate.
|ES E-Mini S&P500 Futures - 1 HR - Alternate Pre-FED Triangle|
Such a triangle would have to extend to any announcements on Wednesday. At this point in time, the (b) wave of the potential triangle has more bars than the (a) wave - which is typical of a triangle, and which is why the bar measurement ruler is shown. Also, the (b) wave is just a nick over the 78.6% Fibonacci retrace level, which would be good proportion for a triangle. If this pattern materializes, price movement would be to the up side out of the triangle, and we would consider that in any larger pattern.
Price may not travel below the (a) wave at any time to maintain the integrity of this alternate. This is why a person remains calm, neutral and open-minded about the progress of the waves. At some point soon, the June 11 high or the June 12th low will give way and set the stage for what is next. One really good reason this count is the alternate is that a triangle simply can not be called until all five legs are "in the market", and that simply is not the case yet. But, the idea of a triangle is reasonable given all the eyes on the FED meeting results on Wednesday.
Since the count above is shown in the futures, it is the futures that must maintain validity.
Have a good start to the evening and to the week.