Monday, June 3, 2019

Continuation Lower

The ES futures were lower over night, then traded higher at the open, and then made another new daily lower low around 15:30 ET, before rebounding to close narrowly mixed. The lower lows continue the down trending wave.

ES E-Mini S&P500 Futures - 4 Hr - Lower Lows

The ES daily slow stochastic is still embedded below 20, and the futures settled inside of the daily Bollinger Band, negating any prior lower closes outside of the band. In short, prices may be riding the band lower.

The whippy action during the day, and near the close is suggestive that a triangle might be forming for red wave iv, if it wishes to become longer in time.

Have a good start to the evening and to your week.
TraderJoe

54 comments:

  1. joe
    seeing that red v will be shorter than red iii, and likely that red iv overlaps red i, can we as an alternative conclude we are in a higher degree 4th wave?

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  2. Thanks ET. Question: I was wondering whether the internal waves of a wave 4 triangle are subject to size restrictions in order to avoid degree violations as per the attached chart.
    https://imgur.com/5gJIoFR

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    1. https://imgur.com/aBLCoWs

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    2. Billy, c in your triangle is above a yet d is not below b or e above c. this is not an Elliott structure.

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    3. Gotchya, thank you Gerald.

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  3. Thanks as always!! So when are we going to see the Great Depression type of moves?

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  4. Since Oct - Dec was a 3 wave move for potential ((1)), its challenging to think about how we should be measuring this down move relative to it. Observations thus far, this wave (thus far) has covered less points in more time than the A wave down from early Oct.

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    Replies
    1. covered less points but taken more time

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  5. ET, it is now the largest ES rally since the start of May or (0) on your chart. Does this create any issues with the current count?

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  6. We have overlapped the 29th low. (futures)

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    1. What's the significance of this overlap at 2766? Trying to answer my own questions for learning purpose, I guess because it indicates wave iii is done and this is now a degree change where the current wave iv shouldn't overlap of bottom of wave 1 at 2805?

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    2. An observation. To revisit, if red i were blue (iii), then (v)<(iii)<(i). Strictly in terms of measurement, this could allow for wave 3 to have completed at yest. low. A move to the 2790 area would be a .382 retrace of the entire move down from May. Basis futures (cfd contract).

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  7. Hi TJ -

    When you get a chance, can you provide your POV on the bigger picture roadmap as you did earlier in the year? LINK (http://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2019/01/bigger-picture.html)

    Previous big picture was expectations of a series of zig zags to draw out a diagonal, given the new ATH in April, should the primary count now be a large impulse wave 1(C) down to 2200 region?

    Thanks in advanced.

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    Replies
    1. For example via a 18 month daily chart:

      https://imgur.com/zMgaRHa

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  8. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  9. Based on overnight overlap in the futures, and the cash open, we should now expect that red v ended at yesterday's low, and we are now in a larger degree wave blue (iv) of 3, down.

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    1. Joe, this wave 4 must be longer than grey iv of lower degree?

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    2. if grey 4 has any wave degree impact on current 4, can you provide an chart that shows the grey 4 wave's beginning and end? it was a double bottom, and want to make sure its the lowest of the two lows.

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  10. Here's an updated chart. Blue (iv) is already longer in time than red iv, and therefore is of higher degree.

    https://invst.ly/ayk9s

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. highest degree up in a while
      here we are ...
      what completed at bottom? what degree? deja vu


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    2. wave 2
      wave iv of 3

      how do their subwaves set wave degree rules


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    3. because if any exist we can get better handle on whats at work here. Remember i have 5 down from top top complete for an alternate and your working count doesnt even have 3 down from top top complete. So thats quite a range of outcomes. lol

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    4. Simple .. minute ((iv)) of Minor 3. And it has a max of 2,795 on the ES. Beyond that this up wave would break a (c) = 1.618 x (a). (Prev reply had a typo.)

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    5. Deep retrace for (iv). 58% on the DOW and 50% for SPX. Could go higher still and be wave A of (iv) if the market is going to triangle.

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  11. VIX from May 22 low completed LDT

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  12. We have retraced 50% of noted blue (iii) (basis cfd).

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    Replies
    1. We have now reached .382 retrace of the entire move down from May.

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    2. Keeping an eye on blue (i).

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  13. Joe
    anything we can surmise based on size of that move that would be helpful?

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  14. Yes, a triangle is possible - plausible.

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  15. At great personal risk (lol), I would ask a simple question:
    15min ES chart -
    From Jun 3rd overnight low, can we see 3 waves up (a), 3 waves down (b) [105% retrace), and possible 5 waves up now in progress [exp flat]?

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    1. tacharts, I was also contemplating the possibility of an expanded flat. I believe SPX/ES counts ok as a complete expanding diagonal from yesterday's high to low during the cash session. If it is an expanded flat then the triangle off the table and our primary count is gone with it. No expanded flat issues with the DOW. The chances we are experiencing a dead cat bounce here is very high IMO with 2800 still possible.

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  16. Joe,
    still a bear count doing down - i get that for now.
    but if
    decent strength from here gets overlap
    do you have count again for diagonal lower with this being an overlapping 4
    or did the count rule that out
    didnt have 1.618 down in that case
    so is it simple ABC down again from an ATH?

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  17. hit the 95 level you alerted at 11:17 i believe

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  18. Market hit ES 96; so a triangle b wave would start with an immediate and 'rapid' drop. If that does not occur, then we are looking at a fourth wave of an impulse higher.

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  19. <a href="https://invst.ly/aymp1>Keep it simple</a>, lads.

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  20. if its an impulse, then its another degree higher on your count i believe, making it just 3 down from top ABC?

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  21. SPX (cfd) - just tagged the blue (i) level.

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  22. my expanding diagonal count of 5 down predicted a larger degree wave up than a 4th of the degrees being currently counted and busted. The count is indifferent to overlaps. Whether its a preferred count on this site will not mean we have not had 5 down from top. Its all subject to interpretation and revision at this point. Thanks Joe

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    1. i believe this move is too large to be a fourth wave in any count that has a downward 1.618 extension within the larger degree wave

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    2. Can’t meassure your exp diagonal in cash marc

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    3. its there. i can count 5 down from top. 3 down from top. and if ES prints .25 above its high ...

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  23. Since there was no immediate decline from 2,796, then the up wave is likely the start of an impulse. Everything since 2,796 is likely the 'b' wave of a flat fourth wave within the impulse. The daily slow stochastic is now un-embedded.

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  24. Can ABC be 1 of a diagonal in this specfic case?

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    Replies
    1. Yes, but a proven downward diagonal is a long, long ways away yet.

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  25. A new post has been started for the next day.

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