Today we monitored to see if a larger degree fourth wave would form - perhaps as a triangle. We said that ES 2,795 was the limit for the move, because that is where a c wave would equal 1.618 x a in a triangle. And when 2,796 was reached, we said that if a speedy decline did not begin immediately, we must consider the up move as part of an impulse instead of a triangle.
Such a decline did not emerge, and so the waves over 2,795 are most likely part of a b wave of a flat for the fourth wave of an impulse higher.
That's how Elliott Wave logic works, and so we accept it. From the longer term count standpoint, that means we have only had an A-B-C downward move, as follows.
|ES E-Mini S&P500 Futures - 4 HR - The 1-2-3 Became A-B-C|
Although the C wave is marginally longer than the A wave, it counts best as C = A, and the 4-hr EWO is on a divergence at the lows. The blue fourth wave (iv) shorter in time than the second wave (ii) is what initially threw the downward impulse off in terms of 'time', and hence, that peak is relabeled for the C wave.
I'll be working on what this means for the longer term picture in the next couple of days. For now, we have to see if a fourth wave and fifth wave of the upward impulse develops properly tomorrow. IF so, then there should be at least another five waves upward. Perhaps more, but at least one more set of five-waves up.
Have a good start to the evening.