Wednesday, June 19, 2019

Powell "Lost" Patience

Nothing much has changed except FED chair Powell took the word "patience" out of the FED statement which some imply sets the stage for a later rate cut. 

ES E-Mini S&P500 Futures - 4 Hr - No Change

There was first a retrace to the 50 - 62% Fibonacci area versus wave i of (c), then a higher high on the day. The price quote shown as wave ii on the chart is off by about five points. Care should be used when using on-line tools.

As long as price remains in the channel, it should result in somewhat higher prices. Since wave (a) was not a diagonal in its entirety, a wave (c) could be - but does not have to be. Only if tomorrow is not a extended third wave should a diagonal consideration come into play. Right now there is no evidence for it. See yesterday's post for the larger context of the count.

Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe

P.S. Here is the possibility for the diagonal on the Dow. The specific degree labels have been included. Note that sub-minuette wave a - most recent - is NOT larger than minuet (iii) of minute ((a)) - the previous larger wave in the same direction. I did this measurement. It is off to the left of the chart. You should do this measurement, too.

DOW Futures - 2 Hr - Potential Diagonal

Also note, that minuet wave (i) is shorter than all of minute ((a)), and minuet (ii) is not larger than the widest part of minute ((b)). Further, sub-minuette b is shorter in time and price than minuet (w) of minute ((b)). Minuet (w) is not labeled but it is the lowest low of 12 June.

These are the factors that preserve degree labeling in an up-count, as far as I can tell. If at any time price travels downward to exceed the length of the widest part of minute ((b)), then it would be necessary to say, "the degree has turned".

85 comments:

  1. Little doubt that gold is out of weekly triangle. Triangle height says low 1500's.
    I still think that the e wave was a ZZZ. Have a great day.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There was no symmetry or clear Fibonacci proportion in the supposed EWI triangle. That is very atypical of a triangle, when in his book Prechter 'waxes poetic' about the symmetry in triangles. That is why my impulsive count (part of the W-X-Y count shown previously) called for the 'early exit', and not a longer lasting d wave or sub-standard e wave.

      I'm just trying to explain the rationale in the event it helps future counting.

      Delete
  2. DOW cash has a 1.618 extension; S&P just over 1.00. ES had a new all-time-high.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. S&P cash has a 1.618 extension on the "interior" of the two up waves.

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  3. BBRider would liken to see your gold chart if possible . Thanks

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    Replies
    1. Here is the daily. As I said, the up wave 'could' be counted impulsively. Wave ((iv)) at 50% x ((iii)), the max.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/KXeDgObZ/

      I showed him the weekly, before.

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    2. I will post tonight but as ET pointed out it was not symmetrical. It ran 90 retraces on top and .786s on the bottom.

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    3. Here is the weekly counted as a triangle. Things not to like is the lack of symmetry and the d wave EWO is quite strong. It does seem to have the thrust out of triangle attitude.

      https://imgur.com/YuyjzK1

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  4. Gosh, back at the end of May you said, definitively, 'the top is in'.

    Yet here we are.

    I think you do your best here, but that's two whoppers of bad calls so far this year.

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    Replies
    1. Back in January I asked if there was any count for a new all time high before September (because my analysis was calling for it) and I was told there was no count for that but here we are

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    2. @d-w; @A-W; you are free to pick and chose anything you like and take it out of context. My comments were in regard to an further Intermediate wave (5) that everyone was and is working on. As of this time, the DOW has not yet made a new high, although it is at risk. The Russell has not made a new high, and the New York Composite has not made a new high. Even this morning, the Nasdaq 100 futures have not made a new high yet; though they could. I also specifically said, if there were another three-waves down in the S&P500, it would only be another 'X' wave. The bulk of the evidence still suggests I am more correct than incorrect. You can ignore all of the evidence in you wish.

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    3. Aw328 and others trying to criticize Joe,

      I can guarantee you that if you are buying at these levels, you’ll be broke over the next two years. Joe has correctly called the top in the Dow, and you guys seem pretty confident that we will hit new highs. That’s the consensus with most traders, new highs across all the markets even though the economic data is and has been pointing to a major global recession.

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    4. Those that want to see a different count can watch Lara's video with a more bullish expectation
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Au2QCid_hWI

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    5. John, if you are going to advertise for Lara on here repeatedly, you also need to tell people, that "her more bullish 22nd March" forecast was clearly invalidated.

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    6. Also problems with counts routinely exhibiting glaring degree violations, imho...

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    7. My recollection is that you didn't think indices were going above the May highs (hence you wrote: the top is definitely in).

      Tough market to call, it's all manipulated up and down, crazy to even play in it really.

      Delete
    8. John, Study Bill Williams and follow AO. If we are going to make a major bearish retracement look for the weekly AO to fall below 0. Notice Weekly gold turned up :) Bill's 1st 2nd and 3rd books are all good.
      I like Lara and respect her opinion however Study William's and follow AO.

      Delete
  5. Come on Watchman. Cut the man some slack. After all nobody's perfect.
    I do have to say most traders, yours truly included, saw this upwards break from the sideways consolidation entered in an uptrend coming from a mile away. I kept watching in amazement as so many wave counters kept calling for a decline. As I said, no one's perfect! :)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. you should use the 'reply' link to answer someone's comment.

      Delete
  6. Here is the Dow's 1.618 extension this morning, and nearing the lower channel.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/jCHnBAgD/

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. An internal wave fourth on the Dow (shown above) would now be longer in 'time' than the internal wave two.

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  7. ET, if the count holds, Int (B) should be done within days. Are you seeing this as an irregular flat from Sept 2018? If Int (C) were 1.618 Int (A), that would go to mid range of Int (4) and roughly 38% correction of 2009 - 2018. Or is there an expectation for a more complex pattern?

    Can you address the issue of time to correct the 9.5 year advance?

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  8. SP500 has more than a 62% retrace on the up wave. Time to start looking for the diagonal count??!

    ReplyDelete
  9. QQQ put/call ratio the lowest I’ve ever seen! .52!

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  10. There could be a sneaky DOW/S&P count leading to a diagonal that looks like this. It would not violate the 0 - ii trend line as far as I can tell, and it would account for overlap.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/nX4iwHIZ/

    TJ

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  11. If our C leg finishes within the .382-.618 of A, I believe Neely sees this as a C wave truncation. He has some interesting comments regarding these (imho).

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  12. Joe,
    i think the recent move down is too big in spx cash to be subwave of v
    ...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. so if we only get 3 wave rally up good chance its complete, or
      this is ii of 5 to complete an impulse from may low.

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    2. I have suggested repeatedly ... "use the futures for degree confirmation". The move in the ES lower today, is 'not' longer than the largest depth of the "b" wave from June 11 - June 13th. That would not occur until 2,925. Does that make sense?

      Delete
  13. the math does
    but if the cash count degree violations are dependent on overnight trading then why count the cash at all?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. but the violations in v of c are within wave c nothing to do with wave b

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    2. If you count "cash only", then you will lose the 100 point ES drop on Election Night, and 200+ gain the day after. Seems to me those are waves worth considering. I'm just suggesting using the futures for confirmation. Nothing more, nothing less.

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    3. ..you are continuing to ignore degree structure .. you have labeled v and c and b all with exactly the same symbols. I can't help any more if you are not going to prioritize which degree is which using different symbols.

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  14. A chart has been added as a P.S. to address "degree labeling concerns". I had to noodle on it a bit, but this looks right. Do your measurements. Feedback is welcome.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. looks great.
      can it be done already or does it need to trace out your path?

      Delete
    2. yes, it 'could' be done already, by counting one of the internal waves of ((b)) as a first wave, and then a simple impulse up. But, 1: usually the points of the zigzag are on the 'most extreme'. Meaning ((b)) should be to the farthest "lower-right" possible, which is where I have shown it, and, 2: If waves are going to finish, they 'often' do so with a triangle or a diagonal somewhere in the structure. So I am not rushing the count, and will bide some time. "The trend is one's friend until it is not."

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    3. ..notice how 'reluctant' the down wave is to 'give it up', already. It is greater than a 62% retrace on ES, already. You know what Neely says about 'speed'.

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  15. Already can be counted as "five-waves-up" - probably a diagonal 'a' wave, on the five-minute chart, below.

    https://invst.ly/b2cxk

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. could be the c wave of expanded flat. i count 5 down to that point where a would start

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    2. DOW cash and futures have already, "gone over the top".

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    3. SP500 cash, now "over the top".

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  16. Look at last couple hours reversal on Nikkei futures, likely a finished zigzag? Maybe US cash indices needs to finish today if Asia will continue down monday.

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  17. Expanded diagonal V on DOW cash from 26340 I think iii took more time than i even with the gap

    ReplyDelete
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    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    2. Very ugly though:
      https://invst.ly/b2d5s

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    3. Interesting! and possible! Good work! Still ..just bear in mind it is a very rare pattern, and it must break the wave (4) low in less time than it took to build for confirmation.

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    4. nice work in measurements

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    5. Yes let’s see, at least pretty nice zigzags in all the waves imho

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  18. .66 put/call ratio on SPY! Wow! Everyone is extremely bullish!

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    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  19. Let's not lose track of the minimum objective of a wave C is 62% of wave A. If wave A in the futures is 182.75, then 62% is roughly 113. Add that to B, the minimum target becomes 3002. If the above count is correct.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. IF that is to be the case, the current potential diagonal could be a 'leading one", with a bigger third wave, say, on some trade announcement.

      Delete
  20. Oil looks to be working it's way back toward "Balance lines" All 3 Daily, Weekly and Monthly line up nice. We are below them and should stay below 63.81. I'd like to see a 50% retrace to 58.55 sometime around July 4th. Oil going below February's lows can not be bullish.

    ReplyDelete
  21. If cup and handle patterns are a thing, and we're looking at such a pattern in the Dow Industials going back to January of 2018 - thus a big one -wouldn't the handle part of the cup be an Elliott Wave 2 (thus the breakout of the pattern the early meat phase of wave 3?

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  22. ES levels to watch are 2983, 3009 and 3045. Hopefully first two are it.

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  23. Sal, why hopefully the first two are it? Why not 4500?

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    Replies
    1. Well then the whole count is off if it blows thru what is supposedly a c wave (sub wave)

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  24. hi joe
    is it possible that the 5 V phase is not finished yet because we have new reccord?
    and if we make A B C as you think, what is the maximum peak possible?

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  25. The Russell futures 4-hr sure look a lot different than the ES; already have c = 0.786 x a. I suppose they could whip around once more, but the down move is larger than some waves - just not all of them, yet.

    https://invst.ly/b2mr4

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. IF they whipped around, maybe a triangle would try to equalize price differences.

      Delete
  26. According to this site, ES has the new higher high - likely for (iii) or part of (iii). The alternate has to be a 'flat two', in the event three breaks diagonal parameters.

    https://invst.ly/b2mzb

    TJ

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  27. Maybe Dow cash still in V of exp diagonal

    ReplyDelete
  28. Replies
    1. How'd that work out for you today? Any more nonsensical and non-wave-counting posts are likely to get sent to spam.

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  29. So far, in the cash Dow, we have these pieces falling into place. Please note that the time spent in each wave, so far, is (iii) < (i). Now, let's see if (iv) < (ii). Also, note the Elliott Wave Oscillator.

    https://invst.ly/b2nca

    Overlap is needed for (iv), and wave (v) may not exceed wave (iii) in length.

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ES Futures can now claim a very short term five-waves down off the top (1 min chart).

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    2. ES futures have the needed downward overlap.

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  30. The spike up in last hour pierced the SPX trend line connecting the last 2 big tops and left hourly RSI 5 divergence. Won't take much weakness to turn the daily oscillators.

    ET, you skip every question I ask ( I think you answered one in Feb). What's up with that?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Also turned at upper bollinger bands on daily and hourly

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    2. @JoeM - just not ready to discuss the longer term yet.

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    3. Isn't at least some degree of context everything, though?

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    4. It is something, not everything. I have a longer term view - just not ready to share it yet.

      Delete
  31. Joe,
    are you working with "rules" in order to allow a long term count which prior to now wold have been excluded based on rules you have discussed? Or are all your "rules" 100% effective and implementable.

    ReplyDelete
  32. Broker quotes show the Dow futures (YM), and Dow cash have now overlapped on a wave (i), up.

    https://invst.ly/b2p52

    TJ

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  33. Expanded diagonal v still works on DOW?

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  34. A new post has been started for the next day.

    ReplyDelete