Friday, June 7, 2019

Looking at Futures Since the Low

This count seems best to maintain degree labeling in the futures which includes all the hours of trading. The (b) wave should be found at a lower right extreme  - as shown - to be correct. Each of the third waves is above a line from its origin thru wave ii (0 - ii).

ES E-Mini S&P500 Futures - 5 Minute Closes - Two Channels

If this count is correct, wave iv of (c) will likely continue into the overnight Sunday / Monday, and then a fifth wave might wrap up the up move - finding resistance along the 50-day SMA or the upper daily Bollinger Bands. I'm still working on the cash chart.

Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe

P.S. I have added the cash chart to this post. The initial trend line break must mean that wave i of .a is just to the left of the red line. Then, ii breaks the red line, and iii is after it. No similar problem in a third wave of (c).

SP500 Cash Index - 15 Min - Trend lines 0 - 2

Notice that price has already broken down the largest trend line on a chart. A wave v could start upward, and it could be quite a wave.

35 comments:

  1. Thanks Joe!

    Have a great and safe weekend

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  2. seems to be what i have but i have
    (a) and (b) as 1 and 2. so i am counting 123 and you have abc. are both valid? can your count eventually be an impulse with your (a) and (b) as 1 2? or do we need to move (b) if possible?

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    1. You'd probably want to see a 1.618 extension on (a) before looking for a 1,2,3 instead. Usual order of business.

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  3. Thanks for another great week of info

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  4. ET,
    Why do you prefer the 34 ema over the Alligator’s Jaw (Blue Alligator) as the balance line?
    Also I thought I'd past along there is a wealth of information on Scribd under the documents section for Bill William's, gann, elliott wave, esignal etc. It's free to try then like $9 a month.

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    Replies
    1. No preference .. just pretty equivalent, and sometimes clearer.

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  5. Volume was a little too weak today to count as a solid follow thru day for a more bullish count.

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  6. Does anyone know what Prechter is forecasting for the Dow in 2021? My target is 3,000.

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  7. Was just comparing the "clear impulse" chart (earlier post) with the new line chart for the same area. Perhaps Im viewing this incorrectly, but seems we've changed the structure of some of the individual waves within. Not sure which is which.

    https://imgur.com/jfP8gPI

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    Replies
    1. ta .. please do not do this to my charts. It is really rather rude, and a copyright violation. In short, I am not providing you permission to in any way copy, store, re-use, re-label, or re-transmit my charts in any form, or in any way as per the notice in the footer of the web-page.

      As to the technical question which you think is a "gotcha", I think there is smaller second wave buried in the bars - probably in the second bar - and the large wave with overlap is all a fourth wave.

      That's because in wave five, there is nothing but a mere 'pip' down for a second wave too.

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  8. Daily CL reacting off the lower bb, still embedded with the slow stoch. and the 18ma crossing below the 100ma: https://invst.ly/azssg

    Weekly CL reacting off the lower bb, slow stoch. pointing down and the 18ma below the 100ma: https://invst.ly/azssq

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  9. Joe
    Can you explain how the use of log charts relates to wave degrees. Can lower degree waves be nominally larger than the higher degree wave but percentage wise less?
    Also, is the guideline that a second degree wave must be shorter in length than its higher degree counterpart a rule or a guideline?

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    1. joe any guidance on above will be helpful. thanks

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  10. joe
    can (a) and (b) be 1 2 of large impulse forming?

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    Replies
    1. See P.S. in post, and consider the trend line break.

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  11. I have added the cash chart, and explanation. Leading Diagonals (in cash only, impulse in futures) are 'usually' A waves.

    TJ

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  12. what do you mean by a wave 4 upward may start. What would 1 2 3 be? thanks

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    1. Sorry, that was a typo. Corrected now. Meant that wave 'v' upward could start when current wave iv wraps up.

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    2. wave iii was extended so why think v will be large. if i wanted large wave i would think small v then its just 1 of c not all of c

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    3. or iii and iv are i ii and yes big wave expected

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    4. marc, I just mean large relative to wave iv.

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  13. Joe, the cd you note is the one I was rambling about in the comments but when 4 took more time then 2 I ruled it out. I thought in cd a 4 must have less price and time than 2.

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    1. 'Most often', Gerald, 'most often'; and these are within a bar, I believe.

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  14. At 2,895, the bare 'minimum' for a fifth wave v of (c) has been met. There are ways it could go longer - like a longer internal fourth wave, but the absolute 'minimum' has been met in the cash market.

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  15. Futures chart is beginning to look interesting. A lower channel break might be more telling.

    https://invst.ly/a-4zo

    TJ

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    1. Now breaching futures channel to the downside. This suggests that the only way to continue a wave 5, higher of (c) is as a diagonal. But, it would have to recapture the trend line. Otherwise, if selling picks up we head lower.

      https://invst.ly/a-5v3

      TJ

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  16. ii of diagonal would be deeper than 2 of v

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  17. From today's high, it looks like the beginnings of an expanding diagonal downward. This could continue into the overnight and tomorrow. I'm pretty sure all up counts will disappear if wave 4 is taken out lower.

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  18. A new post has been started for the next day.

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