Thanks once again, and keep the ideas, thoughts, and corrections coming. I am sure we can all learn this even better than some of the supposed experts!
Have a great weekend.
I get a lot of requests for the Russell 2000 Count, so I have posted it below. The RUT has always had the advantage that the first wave up can be counted as a non-overlapping impulse.
|Russell 2000 Small Cap Index - 3 Day Chart|
Within minute (i) up of Minor 1, there are five non-overlapping waves up (i - v), where iv is a clear running triangle. Minute (ii) is a flat wave, and minute (iv) is another clear running triangle to alternate with the flat wave (ii). Notice that Minor 2 occurs at the lowest reading in the RSI since the up trend began, and we think this reinforces why this is the proper location for Minor 2 in the Dow and the S&P charts, as well.
Minor wave 3 then "blasts off" after the election, and breaks the channel to the upside, demonstrating it's power as a third wave. The first a wave down is "too short in time" to correct all of minor 3, and the upwardly sloping b wave is a choppy overlapping affair currently on a divergence with the RSI.
When completed, this suggests that a c wave down will occur to complete Minor 4, on the same schedule as the Dow & S&P500. Wave minor 4 may not overlap with wave 1 before a minor 5th wave completes, upward. And, since Minor 3 is shorter in price than Minor 1, then wave Minor 5 must be shorter than Minor 3.
Please note. This is not a contrived wave count. I have studied the top in excruciating detail, and because of the overlap at the blue b wave, and the lower low at x, it is not possible to have a diagonal to a higher wave 3 location. That is because diagonals are not allowed to have flat waves for any of the numbered waves (only the b waves within diagonals may be flats). Try it for yourself. I can't find a way with the current waves. Also, the entire "upwardly sloping structure" does not converge like a diagonal. It is remarkably parallel, almost perfectly parallel, and therefore it does not have the "right look". Next, the internal time signatures are not contracting like a common diagonal, again tending to rule out this option. Lastly, it is not possible to replace the 3 wave label with "a" of the first wave of a diagonal, or to replace blue a with c of (i) of a diagonal because wave 3 can not be a diagonal in it's entirety within an impulse wave.
I have looked for triangles in the interior, and can spot a couple of possibilities, but, all they would do is extend the parallel in time.
All of this suggests the parallel would break to the downside for minor wave 4. While we do not yet know that the upward b wave is over, it is fine for a z wave up to breach the upper trend line, and then close quickly back within it. And it is fine for the z wave to also "fail" to make a new high. But, if full daily candles begin to be printed over the upper parallel line, only then would be conclude that the last x wave, which does overlap wave 3 is somehow a second wave base for a larger advance. Such an alternate count has no evidence to support it at this time.
Hope this helps.