Here is the daily S&P 500 cash chart, updated for today's bar.
|SP500 Daily Chart - Lower Low and Lower Close Day|
The result was prices made a lower low (LL), and lower close (LC) day than yesterday, and prices made a solid close below the 10-day SMA.
Still a lower low below 2405.70 is needed to confirm a down trend. The odds are it will likely happen. But, we caution, look at how many gaps there are in the wave from May 17th upward! Any or all of those could fill.
We are still counting a c wave downward. Below is the chart from the live chat room on the S&P 500 15-minute chart. We called each of the waves, including the diagonal c wave of wave iv in real time. Be aware, the down wave looks incomplete at this time. While there may be some backing & filling before the low is taken out, it is possible that the fifth wave of this series is 'extending' and that could get a bit brutal.
|SP500 15-Minute Chart - Downward Count|
Yesterday's hourly triangle is to the left of the chart. Today's downward movement has, importantly, taken out the wave ii of the a wave of (c) of the triangle. And, the level to beat is still the (b) wave of the triangle. Look how beautifully, that ending diagonal c wave of iv formed perfectly in every detail!
It will not be my intention each day to show you counts from the live chat room. However, I feel it is critical at this likely turning point. But further, I want to show you examples of what a good wave count looks like. Why is this one good? Notice that within today's downward wave iv took so much longer in time that wave ii. Knowing that likely relationship gave us patience all day to wait for the b wave of the flat to be exceeded lower. Further, it was clear wave ii was a sharp wave (a zigzag), and that, again, gave us the expectation of a flat (or triangle) wave iv for alternation.
If your Elliott analyst is not doing these things, then they simply are not following Elliott wave theory properly, and no matter how 'objective' they say they are being, then they simply are not. No way.
We hope we at least may have helped you dodge a bullet today and over the last several days. But that is up to you. We do not provide trading or investment advice, ever. We just count waves. All decisions are your own.
We hope you will tell your friends and family about this blog. If you do, it would be great to leave us a comment and let us know. Otherwise, there is not much point in publishing it.
Well, have a good start to your evening.