Friday, July 14, 2017

Converting to Neely Style Charts

Market Outlook: Slightly Higher Highs still Possible On Very Low Volume.
Markets: Dow new ATH, SP500 new ATH, $RUT new closing high.

I've been quite busy in the last two days updating many charts to Neely style charts. Yesterday, I showed you this daily chart, and a 15-minute chart, and said that new all time highs were possible based on my analysis of The Eight Fold Path Method. It seemed likely that a small degree (15-minute chart) wave four would begin lower. This latter portion of the prediction did not occur. The first part did.

SP500 Cash - Daily - Neely Style Chart with New All Time Highs

Instead, the market surge past the highs, faster than I thought, on very low volume (in the futures contracts and as volume in the cash market).

We have converted the 15-minute chart now to a Neely Style Chart, and it is posted below. The two most most probable reasons for not getting the slightly larger fourth wave were 1) the presence of the "running flat" fourth wave (.iv). Two of us called that out in real time chat, yesterday, I didn't react to it adequately enough. I will try to do so in the future; and 2) the third wave had not yet made a 1.618 extension. I should easily have caught something that basic - but didn't. (Hopefully, if I miss things like that in the future that would be what I consider as excellent material for the comment section).

SP500 Cash - 15-Minute Chart


At present, there is no confirmation that the top is in. You can see from the brown labels we are still looking to see if brown wave (iv) is looking to alternate in shape and time with brown wave (ii).

The up wave passed the 1.618 extension, solidifying it as an extended third wave (-iii), which means that normal fourth wave alternation should apply. However, the Elliott Wave Oscillator is on an up trend and has 'barely' diverged at the high.

After converting some other charts to Neely style analysis, reviewing wave degrees, and reviewing retrace analysis it has come to light that while I think the overall degree of the weekly up wave remains in Minor 3, that the placement of some labels within that Minor 3 wave is incorrect. While they are placed correctly on the daily chart above, they are not place correctly on the Weekly Chart, and I will explain that in a short weekend video which will be available by Sunday. And I think it will intuitively make more sense. (P.S. Unless you were in live chat today, it's not what you think it might be.)

Well, that's it for now. Have a good start to the weekend. I appreciate your patience as we switch to some hopefully even more effective methods.

Cheers!
TraderJoe

7 comments:

  1. Joe, if you count 2454-2405 as wave 'a' of a contracting triangle that ended at Tuesday's low at 2413, then today's high, measured from Tuesday's low, equals the length of the longest wave of the triangle (wave 'a'), although the apex of the triangle does not occur (in time) until the close on Monday.

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    1. Mostly correct. Please see the Sunday video.

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  2. At least you allow dissent Joe. Old Tony Caldaro has now blocked all posters except those who are his supporters, refuses to acknowledge his terrible call of two years ago when he called the start of a new major bear market , and is already down 3% from his 'confirmed downtrend' and yet thousands flock to his site like he is some messiah.

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  3. Thanks TJ,
    any long term chart and analysis on USD..

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    1. Welcome, Manu.

      Please see the Sunday video (16 JUL) for the short term U.S. Dollar Index count, and this previous blog post for the long term analysis:

      http://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2017/06/the-us-dollar-index.html

      Cut and paste the link to your browser.
      Joe

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  4. Salut joe
    Tu vois du changement sur le graphique hebdomadaire?
    Merci pour ton travail impeccable

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    1. Not the monthly or weekly - just the daily please see the video on Sunday 16 JUL for the details. Thanks for reading.

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