Wednesday, July 19, 2017

Still no 38.2% Pull-Back

Market Outlook: Marginally higher highs still possible; risk growing
Markets: ES, SP500, NQ higher all-time highs; not the DOW

Here is an update on the ES E-Mini S&P 500 Futures 4-Hr Chart. The upward movement broke a potential wedge shape, but in addition, still has not made a retrace of 38.2% or more. Therefore, the best count still remains an extended first wave, as below.

ES E-Mini S&P500 Index Futures - Still No 38.2% Pullback

Since we don't have a pullback of more than 38.2%, the best configuration of the count is with the extended first wave again. It might form a wedge, with a shorter wave (iii), but that remains to be seen. There is no evidence for a diagonal at this time, as there is no overlap of any significance.

Tomorrow the Bank of Japan, and some Central Banks in Europe bring their monetary decisions to the fore. Let's see what prices do on those announcements. Regardless, in this scenario, wave (iii) should not become longer than wave x(i), and wave (iv), when it occurs, should be in the sharp or triangle class of waves.

Here is what the Dow looks like today - not having made the new all-time high.

DJIA Cash - 4 Hr - No New All Time High Today

Volume rose a bit today. But not much. Today, the Shanghai Composite completely reversed it's "ugly candle". I'm going to watch that one for an expanding diagonal now - just because the waves are so overlapping.

Have a great start to the evening!

No comments:

Post a Comment