Monday, July 24, 2017

Trend Lines Matter

Market Outlook: Marginal New Highs Possible in DJIA, SPX, NQ; likely not RUT; risk increases.
Market Indexes:  NQ hit new all-time highs; not so for DJIA, SPX, RUT

Because trend lines matter, and a contracting ending diagonal was not adhering well to it's trend lines in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, today the pattern was converted to a triangle, below, during the live chat room. There is no alternate at this time.

DJIA Cash - 4 Hr - Converted to Triangle Count

It is possible that this triangle will be waiting on the news from the FOMC, and a possible set of inflows from new capital on July 31 / August 1st from retirement funds, 401k's, company bonus plans, dividend reinvestment plans, etc.

Although the NQ did make new all time highs today, my read on it is that - on a four-hour chart - it is just the common (B) wave of an expanded flat for it's fourth wave, as well.

NQ (NASDAQ 100) Futures - 4 HR - Likely (B) Wave of FLAT

There are currently three waves down to (A), and three waves up to (B), and the (B) wave turned around and traded lower just before hitting the 1.382 x (A) Fibonacci ratio. Let's see how this one works out. If it does, in the short run, it will likely come back to exceed the (A) wave low, and could come back to the prior wave (4). We would adjust the channel at that time. Here again: no alternate.

Well, that's it for tonight. Have a very good start to the evening.


  1. Thanks TJ,
    Do you blv the bull market in USD over ?
    as per last video we were in abc for new highs up

  2. Thanks TJ for your analysis. Looks like getting close to moment of truth.

  3. Thanks TJ. Looks like RUT leading the way. Interested to see how this changes things.