Saturday, July 8, 2017

New Weekend Video

To say thanks for your responses to the prior blog posts, I have developed a new weekend video that appears below, and on my website, and contains several interesting topics not usually discussed.


Thanks once again, and keep the ideas, thoughts, and corrections coming. I am sure we can all learn this even better than some of the supposed experts!

Have a great weekend.
TraderJoe

Supplemental:

I get a lot of requests for the Russell 2000 Count, so I have posted it below. The RUT has always had the advantage that the first wave up can be counted as a non-overlapping impulse.

Russell 2000 Small Cap Index - 3 Day Chart

Within minute (i) up of Minor 1, there are five non-overlapping waves up (i - v), where iv is a clear running triangle. Minute (ii) is a flat wave, and minute (iv) is another clear running triangle to alternate with the flat wave (ii). Notice that Minor 2 occurs at the lowest reading in the RSI since the up trend began, and we think this reinforces why this is the proper location for Minor 2 in the Dow and the S&P charts, as well.

Minor wave 3 then "blasts off" after the election, and breaks the channel to the upside, demonstrating it's power as a third wave.  The first a wave down is "too short in time" to correct all of minor 3, and the upwardly sloping b wave is a choppy overlapping affair currently on a divergence with the RSI.

When completed, this suggests that a c wave down will occur to complete Minor 4, on the same schedule as the Dow & S&P500. Wave minor 4 may not overlap with wave 1 before a minor 5th wave completes, upward. And, since Minor 3 is shorter in price than Minor 1, then wave Minor 5 must be shorter than Minor 3.

Please note. This is not a contrived wave count. I have studied the top in excruciating detail, and because of the overlap at the blue b wave, and the lower low at x, it is not possible to have a diagonal to a higher wave 3 location. That is because diagonals are not allowed to have flat waves for any of the numbered waves (only the b waves within diagonals may be flats). Try it for yourself. I can't find a way with the current waves. Also, the entire "upwardly sloping structure" does not converge like a diagonal. It is remarkably parallel, almost perfectly parallel, and therefore it does not have the "right look". Next, the internal time signatures are not contracting like a common diagonal, again tending to rule out this option. Lastly, it is not possible to replace the 3 wave label with "a" of the first wave of a diagonal, or to replace blue a with c of (i) of a diagonal because wave 3 can not be a diagonal in it's entirety within an impulse wave.

I have looked for triangles in the interior, and can spot a couple of possibilities, but, all they would do is extend the parallel in time.

All of this suggests  the parallel would break to the downside for minor wave 4. While we do not yet know that the upward b wave is over, it is fine for a z wave up to breach the upper trend line, and then close quickly back within it. And it is fine for the z wave to also "fail" to make a new high. But, if full daily candles begin to be printed over the upper parallel line, only then would be conclude that the last x wave, which does overlap wave 3 is somehow a second wave base for a larger advance. Such an alternate count has no evidence to support it at this time.

Hope this helps.

18 comments:

  1. Joe,

    You have a good weekend!

    Enjoy this post, and I am trying to fully understand it all.

    Thank you again.

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    Replies
    1. Welcome David. Take it slowly. It will become evident in time.

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  2. Great video, thx. I follow your work, it is exeptional.

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  3. Thanks Joe! Appreciate your work and analysis. Have an enjoyable weekend!

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  4. Much thanks. On the s&p impulse wave, wave 2 was 8 months. Would we likely be looking for a wave 4 at least this long say ending march 2018? However it seemed wave 2 of the primary count 2009-2016 count was longer than wave 4 so could be less. Again thanks for your video.

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    Replies
    1. Yes. Alternation doesn't 'have' to mean longer. Longer fourth waves are 'usually' the case, but not always.

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  5. Many thank you for this master class. I consider very interesting to incorporate some of the knowledges of Neely that really help to find the correct path.

    Greetings,

    Francesc

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  6. ET, thank you for the video! I took a look at wave 3 on the S&P 500 from the November 2016 low. The daily candles approximate 160 give/take. When I looked at the EWO it peaked near wave (1) on your weekly line chart. Where you have (3) ending near March, the EWO is lower than in wave (1). Under the Eight-fold path the EWO should peak in iii of 3 I believe. Is this not an impulse or is possibly something else going on? Have I misunderstood or misapplied the Eight-fold path method? Thank you!

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    Replies
    1. Welcome, John.

      Good question. No, you have missed anything. I haven't formally explained it in the method yet. There are three cases for impulses. When the third wave is the extended wave (most common case), the EWO is as expected from The Eight Fold Path. When the first wave extends (as in this case), the first wave will highest EWO in it. When the fifth wave is the extended wave, then the fifth wave will have the highest EWO in it.

      That's why I said in the video, for a valid impulse, up, we have wave minute (v) shorter than minute (iii), and minute (iii) is shorter than minute (i), so minute (v) must remain shorter or we have something else entirely going on.

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  7. Thanks Joe. That was artfulness to the extreme, but I was at odds between what you mentioned in the beginning and the end. In the beginning per time analysis, you mentioned that a way to count waves would be to look for corrections to take longer than prior impulses. But in the end, when you were showing the weekly average chart of Dow jones, the wave 3's, wave one was much longer than wave 2. Is there an expectation that if the wave 1 > wave 3 > wave 5, the corrections are not expected to be longer than impulses?

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    1. I am still trying to understand Neely completely on this topic. It is very possible that the "corrections within larger impulses are smaller in time" than corrections 'after' an impulse. From my reading, it is not real explicit yet, but I am still trying to piece it together from the bits and pieces that appear there. I'll try to get back to you when I have a firm handle on it.

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    2. That's why I primarily dealt with the time relationships within the corrective waves (GOLD, Crude)and stated that part up front.

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  8. Joe, as usual exceptional work. Thanks for the R2K update as well.

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