Nothing in the ES daily chart has yet invalidated or been proved. Today price headed down to touch the 200-day SMA on the front-month futures contract. This is shown by the brown rising curve below price. In earlier posts, we said it could. It did. We don't know anyone else that outlined that possibility. As shown by the dashed lines, there are no lower lows, yet, leaving the two options shown.
The triangle doesn't look particularly good, but it counts acceptably. So, we must still be patient and see whether the truncation count applies or not. These are very close calls, and one would have to have an excellent set of market metrics (usually not available to retail) to tell the difference as of the close today. Essentially, the question amounts to whether or not price will take a strong bounce of the 200-day SMA. It's a reasonable expectation that it would, but it is not required.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
