The Dow's weekly count has been somewhat vexing - to the point where many people are ignoring it and only counting the S&P500 and the NDX. From a degree labeling perspective, we have offered many of these observations before. The count is actually reasonably simple, but it has some twists and turns of interest as per the weekly Dow (YM) futures chart, below.
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| Dow (YM) Futures - Weekly Close - Intermediate (B) |
We have noted before that if the three-waves down is Intermediate (2) or Intermediate (A), then the next Minor retracement wave must - by degree definitions - be smaller than it. We can find no way to do this in the Dow except to call the initial move off the bottom as a single-zigzag W wave composed of ⓐ, ⓑ, ⓒ. That makes the Minor X wave as smaller in price & time than the Intermediate (A) wave.
Similarly, within Minor wave Y, the measure of the ⓒ wave is smaller than the prior Minor W wave. Also, depending on exactly where the minute ⓐ wave of Y ended, it, too, can be counted as smaller than the prior Minor W wave, and it can still have the subsequent ⓑ wave overlap it. So, what we have shown is just a placeholder for the minute ⓐ wave just for charting clarity, but it could have ended at any of the prior humps that have the ⓑ wave overlapping, making it smaller than Minor W.
Further, there is alternation in this count in the form of a contracting diagonal ⓒ wave of Minor W, and an expanding diagonal ⓒ wave of Minor Y. Also, parts of the Minor W wave are extensively long in time and overlapping while much of the Y wave is expansive in price, even though as yet some is overlapping.
It is the decided difficulty of this count that makes us think that it is likely the Intermediate (B) wave count. Included in these difficulties are all of the many, many overlaps in both sections of the waves. Further the (B) wave count is one that - at this time - allows the SPX and NDX to make longer waves up than the prior up wave to 2021/2, and the Dow only make a shorter wave.
Have an excellent rest of the weekend.
TraderJoe
Just one of many counts that roll around my head at night. It could easily work for both /ym and /es and get us out to a closer A=C in time from 2009.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/eU6AF3L
My ES update.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/ddMpmJ2
And this is the "fighting the last battle approach" where ⑤ = ①, which is a very common proportion. And now we're into a (C) wave down.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/bSEsN5qY/
TJ
I think you are right TJ. In the Dow or for that matter everything acts like a C wave down. Looks like tonight has started down again after a swift but false rally. Thanks TJ.
DeleteThx TJ! Many options, just have to take it wave by wave. Thanks for the posts this weekend.
Delete..also, see below at 1:42 pm. TJ.
DeleteI once had a long conversation with Steve Hochberg (analyst for EWI) about the "guidelines" for b waves that suggests over 200% of a they should be discarded. I think his quickness to discard b waves made him miss quite a few irregular flat patterns.
ReplyDeleteAnd yet, his very boss, would be among the first to remind us not to be fooled by the FED's 'rubber ruler' trick - referring to the 'bending' of the yardstick, the US Dollar. So, when we divide ES by GOLD, we get this.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/VoIdl8pc/
TJ
That is a very "eye-opening" chart, Trader Joe! 💡
DeleteAdjusted channel and switched to 4hr on ES.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/rhQiepm
This is about as far as I want to stretch this channel to allow for a 4th wave.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/R7G5TOk
It has nice alternation now in needs to decide what it wants to be.
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ