The ES daily futures so far have had a lower high day, and a higher low day (the futures are still trading after the cash close). This has the effect of again changing the direction of the swing-line indicator lower, when it was previously higher as in the ES daily chart below. The local swing-line is shown on the chart below as the blue line between the bars.
Currently, all of these gyrations are taking place below a declining 18-day SMA. Yesterday's temporary up trend indication in the swing-line indicator is negated by the filter of taking place below the 18-day SMA. Still an overall lower low than 5,559.75 is likely needed to claim a clean five-waves-down.
We have counted the up wave since that low as w-x-y with a possible Ⓒ-of-y failure today that resulted in the lower high. If that is the case, it could indicate the weakness that might suggest that the minuet (v) wave of the minute ⓘ wave is getting underway.
Regular readers of this blog should also note that the upper daily Bollinger Band and the 100-day SMA (green crosses) might join together soon. If they do, it might provide the upward resistance to an upward wave when it gets underway and closes above the 18-day SMA.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Thanks Trader Joe, for this great, well-balanced post! 😊
ReplyDeletewelcome & thx for saying, HG.
Deletepeople are completely bored and chopped out of this market. The put/call has gone back down to normal bull market levels. This possible bear flag on $SPY gets us to 500 if it plays out. QQQ has a pennant. DJI tested the neckline of a daily head and shoulders last two days. The fact no one is worried at all at about a black swan event into April is interesting. thank you as always
ReplyDeleteVery welcome. TJ.
DeleteGOLD (GC) Futures 5 min - interesting situation with a pretty clear triangle, and now a down move longer than the prior wave ii.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/QnulnvyT/
TJ
15 min ES expanding ending diagonal was fully retraced at around the 50% time marker like EWI suggest.
ReplyDeleteHad the wrong candle, held by a few ticks so far.
DeleteGOLD (GC) futures 4-Hr: GOLD 'should' look to get back to the 2,970 - 3,000 level where there is a confluence of horizontal and channel support. More downside is possible from there, but we need to see the right waves develop, first. So far, so good.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/bqcuByEj/
TJ
Maybe ES in the overnight had another ED and now a retrace?
ReplyDelete...or running flat
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ.