Thursday, March 20, 2025

Lower High, Higher Low (LHHL)

The ES daily futures so far have had a lower high day, and a higher low day (the futures are still trading after the cash close). This has the effect of again changing the direction of the swing-line indicator lower, when it was previously higher as in the ES daily chart below. The local swing-line is shown on the chart below as the blue line between the bars.


Currently, all of these gyrations are taking place below a declining 18-day SMA. Yesterday's temporary up trend indication in the swing-line indicator is negated by the filter of taking place below the 18-day SMA. Still an overall lower low than 5,559.75 is likely needed to claim a clean five-waves-down.

We have counted the up wave since that low as w-x-y with a possible -of-y failure today that resulted in the lower high. If that is the case, it could indicate the weakness that might suggest that the minuet (v) wave of the minute  wave is getting underway.

Regular readers of this blog should also note that the upper daily Bollinger Band and the 100-day SMA (green crosses) might join together soon. If they do, it might provide the upward resistance to an upward wave when it gets underway and closes above the 18-day SMA.

Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe

11 comments:

  1. Thanks Trader Joe, for this great, well-balanced post! 😊

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  2. people are completely bored and chopped out of this market. The put/call has gone back down to normal bull market levels. This possible bear flag on $SPY gets us to 500 if it plays out. QQQ has a pennant. DJI tested the neckline of a daily head and shoulders last two days. The fact no one is worried at all at about a black swan event into April is interesting. thank you as always

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  3. GOLD (GC) Futures 5 min - interesting situation with a pretty clear triangle, and now a down move longer than the prior wave ii.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/QnulnvyT/

    TJ

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  4. 15 min ES expanding ending diagonal was fully retraced at around the 50% time marker like EWI suggest.

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    Replies
    1. Had the wrong candle, held by a few ticks so far.

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  5. GOLD (GC) futures 4-Hr: GOLD 'should' look to get back to the 2,970 - 3,000 level where there is a confluence of horizontal and channel support. More downside is possible from there, but we need to see the right waves develop, first. So far, so good.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/bqcuByEj/

    TJ

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  6. Maybe ES in the overnight had another ED and now a retrace?

    ReplyDelete
  7. A new post is started for the next day.
    TJ.

    ReplyDelete